1. 11-01-12 09:45 PM #1
    sando
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    David Ferrer +127 (Pinnacle) Tennis Play of the day

    Ferrer m/l +127 (Pinnacle) 4 Units (Play of the day)

    Analysis - Ferrer playing great Tennis at the moment. Coming off an Indoor win at Valencia in his last tournament. Tsonga is always dangerous, and like most Frenchies usually plays well at home, however the value on Ferrer in this match-up cannot be ignored. Tsonga's biggest weakness is his backhand and with the slower courts Ferrer who is a great mover, will have time to work his inside-out forehand into Tsonga's backhand and force him to the edges where Tsonga will have to go for low percentage winners to finish points.

    Career H2H is 2-1 in Ferrer's favor, with his 2 wins coming on slow surfaces (clay and a slow hard court) and Tsonga's win coming on grass (fast surface), no surprise there.

    Also Tsonga is coming off a back injury that forced his retirement in his last tournament and will probably not appreciate Ferrer's frustrating ability to keep the ball in play and force long points.

    David Ferrer has won 7 in a row when Opponent is a Big Server.

    David Ferrer has won 4 of last 5 when priced as Underdog (+100 - +199).

    Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has lost 7 in a row when Opponent is a Top 10 Player.
    Last edited by SBRAdmin3; 06-19-14 at 04:04 PM. Reason: Link Not Working - Removed-)
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  2. 11-01-12 11:02 PM #2
    PharaohUB
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    Completely agree. overpriced because Tsonga is at home. Watch Tsonga play today and he looked slow. He won't be able to sustain the rallies Ferrer will get him in. I think his career is in the decline. Probably my biggest play tomorrow.
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  3. 11-01-12 11:13 PM #3
    Jrod124
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    Don't forgot also Tsonga has locked up a spot in the WTF, so little to play for here. Tsonga seems to drag with nothing on the line while Ferrer competes no matter what the situation. I will be on Ferrer for a unit also

    GL guys, great post Sando
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  4. 11-01-12 11:29 PM #4
    vyomguy
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    hello TI brother...I agree...I already tipped ferrer in TI. Great value for ferrer here.
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  5. 11-01-12 11:34 PM #5
    sneakerhead
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    Does "not Tsonga in 2 sets (-200)" have any value to close an open parlay?
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  6. 11-01-12 11:51 PM #6
    vyomguy
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    Quote Originally Posted by sneakerhead View Post
    Does "not Tsonga in 2 sets (-200)" have any value to close an open parlay?
    berdych straight up is a much safer bet
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  7. 11-02-12 12:37 AM #7
    sando
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    Quote Originally Posted by vyomguy View Post
    hello TI brother...I agree...I already tipped ferrer in TI. Great value for ferrer here.
    Haha is it obvious because I copy and paste key info and results from TI? What's your handle on TI mate?
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  8. 11-02-12 12:48 AM #8
    sando
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    Quote Originally Posted by PharaohUB View Post
    Completely agree. overpriced because Tsonga is at home. Watch Tsonga play today and he looked slow. He won't be able to sustain the rallies Ferrer will get him in. I think his career is in the decline. Probably my biggest play tomorrow.


    Quote Originally Posted by Jrod124 View Post
    Don't forgot also Tsonga has locked up a spot in the WTF, so little to play for here. Tsonga seems to drag with nothing on the line while Ferrer competes no matter what the situation. I will be on Ferrer for a unit also

    GL guys, great post Sando
    Hopefully we all make some money on this, and yeah great point Jrod, Ferrer is a fighter, and you never have to worry about the tank when he is playing...
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  9. 11-02-12 12:55 AM #9
    sando
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    Quote Originally Posted by sneakerhead View Post
    Does "not Tsonga in 2 sets (-200)" have any value to close an open parlay?
    Actually I agree with vyomguy mate, as Berdych had every chance to tank last night when down 1-6 after the first (the point of tanking to be more rest and preparation before world tour finals), yet the fact he fought on to win in three means he is all business at this tournament and why wouldn't he be when Murray, Djokivic and Del Potro all gone. He is officially the favorite to take the title now and at his best or anywhere near it will literally blow Simon off the court.
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  10. 11-02-12 01:08 AM #10
    vyomguy
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    Quote Originally Posted by sando View Post
    Haha is it obvious because I copy and paste key info and results from TI? What's your handle on TI mate?
    Yup the stats were a give away ....I am enigma23 over at TI
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  11. 11-02-12 01:13 AM #11
    MeatWad
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    I am with you on this one, GL! Wish it were a 5 set match, but Ferrer is definite value in 3. He beats all the top 5-20 guys soo consistently. Doubt Tsonga has the mental fortitude to withstand those long brutal mistake free rallies that Ferrer brings every point.

    I wish Ferrer could add a little of Tsonga's brute strength to his game. Strength combined with his tenancity, conditioning and ground stroke accuracy, Ferrer would finally crack the big four, instead of firmly holding that #5 spot.
    Last edited by MeatWad; 11-02-12 at 02:41 AM.
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  12. 11-02-12 05:21 AM #12
    Vaughany
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    Got Tsonga as +110 underdog on Paddypower. Will be arbing with Ferrer at +130 tho
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  13. 11-02-12 05:46 AM #13
    EaglesPhan36
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    Toss-up IMO. Motivation certainly is a big deal at this time of the year and with all the guys who have pulled out or dumped out early to rest for next week ... this becomes a tricky proposition because you're now just three wins away from a Masters Title, but probably at the cost of doing anything legit next week. Tsonga could be motivated @ home. Ferrer is coming off a full week to win in Valencia, so form is good but it's still a lot of matches lately for both, although it hasn't been too taxing on Ferrer this week. If Tsonga serves well & cares - always questionable obviously, I think he wins. If not, certainly Ferrer can grind through. This just seems like a coin flip rather than any discernable advantage to either guy.

    On Berdych ... he's either going to beat Simon fairly straight forward or get a walkover. Simon is under the weather from what I read. He likely would have been in trouble had Nishikori not pulled out yesterday or so he indicated.
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  14. 11-02-12 07:16 AM #14
    sando
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    Quote Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36 View Post
    Toss-up IMO. Motivation certainly is a big deal at this time of the year and with all the guys who have pulled out or dumped out early to rest for next week ... this becomes a tricky proposition because you're now just three wins away from a Masters Title, but probably at the cost of doing anything legit next week. Tsonga could be motivated @ home. Ferrer is coming off a full week to win in Valencia, so form is good but it's still a lot of matches lately for both, although it hasn't been too taxing on Ferrer this week. If Tsonga serves well & cares - always questionable obviously, I think he wins. If not, certainly Ferrer can grind through. This just seems like a coin flip rather than any discernable advantage to either guy.

    On Berdych ... he's either going to beat Simon fairly straight forward or get a walkover. Simon is under the weather from what I read. He likely would have been in trouble had Nishikori not pulled out yesterday or so he indicated.
    Solid analysis mate, but if it is a coin clip, i.e 50/50 then how is there not value on Ferrer at +127?
    Yeah I was pretty keen on Nishikori last night as well and was not impressed with the walkover one bit...
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  15. 11-02-12 07:47 AM #15
    SprayBoy
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    Quote Originally Posted by sando View Post
    Actually I agree with vyomguy mate, as Berdych had every chance to tank last night when down 1-6 after the first (the point of tanking to be more rest and preparation before world tour finals), yet the fact he fought on to win in three means he is all business at this tournament and why wouldn't he be when Murray, Djokivic and Del Potro all gone. He is officially the favorite to take the title now and at his best or anywhere near it will literally blow Simon off the court.
    Berdych isn't in the atp finals is he?
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  16. 11-02-12 07:59 AM #16
    DoubleRedDragon
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    Originally I was thinking Ferrer myself. I believe Tsonga wins this...
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  17. 11-02-12 08:09 AM #17
    Bbr
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    Line is screaming tsonga 2-1 to me. Total Under is juiced and ferrer is a dog.
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  18. 11-02-12 08:45 AM #18
    EaglesPhan36
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    Quote Originally Posted by sando View Post
    Solid analysis mate, but if it is a coin clip, i.e 50/50 then how is there not value on Ferrer at +127?
    Yeah I was pretty keen on Nishikori last night as well and was not impressed with the walkover one bit...
    Trying to find better edges though than 50-50. There's always going to be that pesky V word tossed around with plus odds in a toss-up type match. I'm not into taking picks though just because of price. Done that too many times. Good luck.
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  19. 11-02-12 01:55 PM #19
    Cappinpicks
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    Lets go ferrer
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  20. 11-02-12 02:12 PM #20
    MrGambler
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    Sando- what a great play. I tailed u for x 5 units. Ferrer seems very solid.
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  21. 11-02-12 02:13 PM #21
    sando
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    6-2 first set. Ferrer looks great!
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  22. 11-02-12 02:14 PM #22
    Cappinpicks
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    what a lock, you ARE the best capper in this forum.. glad I followed dogs soon to be a perfect 4-0 5-0 with Hantuchova fade.
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  23. 11-02-12 02:15 PM #23
    sando
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrGambler View Post
    Sando- what a great play. I tailed u for x 5 units. Ferrer seems very solid.
    Not over yet mate, Tsonga is always dangerous (remember the Wimbledon comeback against Federer) but no denying Ferrer looks switched on. He will be VERY hard to beat from here.
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  24. 11-02-12 02:22 PM #24
    MeatWad
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    Quote Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36 View Post
    Trying to find better edges though than 50-50. There's always going to be that pesky V word tossed around with plus odds in a toss-up type match. I'm not into taking picks though just because of price. Done that too many times. Good luck.
    The +.27 makes this a great investment even if you expected a coin flip. The best in the business don't average better than 50% on +1.27.
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  25. 11-02-12 02:34 PM #25
    Cappinpicks
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    GSM Ferrer thanks for trying Tanka
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  26. 11-02-12 02:41 PM #26
    Cappinpicks
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    Time for The terrier ferrer to mutilate Tsanka at home like he deserves in straight sets
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  27. 11-02-12 02:48 PM #27
    Cappinpicks
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    I doubt Tanker stands a chance against Ferrer in a tiebreak, serve unbreakbable today
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  28. 11-02-12 02:53 PM #28
    MrGambler
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    hmmm don't like this at all...i was hoping Tanker to give up more or less in 2 set....vamos Ferrer!
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  29. 11-02-12 02:58 PM #29
    Cappinpicks
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    Ferrer -310 still no worries he wins soon
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  30. 11-02-12 03:00 PM #30
    Mikail
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    EZ $
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  31. 11-02-12 03:01 PM #31
    MrGambler
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    YEEEEEEEESSSSS!!!! TSONGA MAKES TONS OF UE.....CONGRATS FERRER!!!

    THANKS SANDO....
    Last edited by MrGambler; 11-02-12 at 03:10 PM.
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  32. 11-02-12 03:05 PM #32
    sando
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    Great job Ferrer.
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  33. 11-02-12 04:26 PM #33
    Sport_Fish
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    Ferrer has got to be every gambler's dream. How often can u go wrong backing this guy? Absolute machine.
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  34. 11-02-12 04:42 PM #34
    Cappinpicks
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    Fading the public is every bettors dream in tennis, 0-4 today can't ever predict
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