Looks like great value in these 2 today. Raonic has a great serve but his general game is full of unforced errors. Murray is one of the top 2 returners in the game so can neutralize Raonic's main weapon. He has momentum from the Olympics and he showed yesterday he means business here. He did not play at all between Wimbledon and the Olympics so shouldn't have much fatigue and would surely love to get a hard court title under his belt before the US open.
The books still don't show Isner enough respect in my opinion. He is no longer "just" a big serve and has really improved his all round game. I think this time next year you won't see Isner better than -400 unless he's playing a really top player. How is Kohlschriebers return game as that is really what this will come down to?
Isner is still mostly just a big serve. I think he has had some issues with the increased expectation put on him with the big Davis Cup wins this year. Olympics may help reboot his season. Kohlschreiber usually plays him tough, but he also generally does not accumulate many wins during the summer hard court swing.
My book has Murray at -190. Raonic has not shown the ability to play defense at a high enough level to beat the top players. I liken him to a long-drive champion driving around the country doing ESPN the OCHO specials because he cannot putt or chip and can't survive on tour.
I expect his serve will be humming. But he usually leaves one game open a set, and Murray will be ready to pounce and break.
Only way Raonic wins is if Murray checks out mentally, or if Raonic can take a couple tie breaks.
Oddly, I think the books are betting that happens. So I'd play Raonic +150.
Edit: my book just moved to Raonic +130, Murray -160.
Last edited by Hangoverblack; 08-09-12 at 10:02 AM.
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Thoughts on Andy Murray -162 and John Isner -154
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