[gregm]

YTD 25-21 +9.79

Tough card to call tonight.

Bartoli -185 risk 1.85 Betonline I got this line at -170 this morning but I hate when people post a line that isnt available at the time you post. I would probably play this on the handicap but these WTA matches don't leave you much of a window for a slow start and for Bartoli covering that 3.5 handicap, especially with the serving I expect to see in this one. Looking at the stats , Zheng beat Bartoli at the Aussie in 2010 but Bartoli was not at her best to start the year and I remember that match, Bartoli should have won that one but just seemed to have given up in the 3rd set.

Zhengs impressive performance at Auckland is reflected in this line but Zheng definitely has her weaknesses on serve. The hard court numbers are excellent for both players, I am a little bit worried about the quickness of this surface and Bartolis style of play, she does much better on faster courts and may be a reason she hasnt done really well here in the past. I am just counting on Bartoli being able to smash Zhengs second serve and I am pretty sure she will see a ton of them. Even though Bartoli has worked on her serve, I expect this one will have alot of service games lost. Going to take small punt on Bartoli in this one.

Errani -124 risk 1.24 Strange line moves on this one today, Errani looked fantastic against Petrova and has been dominating opponents so far, dropping only 7 games in this tournament so far.Cirstea has been very impressive as well against Stosur and Radwanska, Hard court stats are not fantastic for either player but Errani has made it to the round of 32 a couple of times here but had the misfortune of facing Venus last year. She didnt finish strong last year but I would definitely give her the edge in this and I am going with her, the line moves should be worth watching on this match. I dont feel really strong about this one .

Kuznetsova/Lisicki O21 -106 risk 1.06 This one is really tough to call, on this surface I always like Kuznetsovas style of play but she can be a real headcase at times and I never know if Lisicki is 100%. I actually like Lisicki here after the way she looked against Peer but this should be a tough match. I think the only play on this one should be the over

Djokovic -10.5 -130 risk 1.3 He should crush Mahut

I actually like these parlays more than any straight wagers tonight.

Sharapova/Monfils/Ferrer/Zvonareva -115 risk 2.30

Sharapova/Monfils/Ferrer/Ivanovic -125 risk 2.50 Sharapova always worries me with her serve but Kerber may have wrist problems and I just dont see these two anywhere close to the same level.

I like some totals but I dont have time to look at any more stats right now , I may try and put some in later today.

[goblue24]

Thanks for continuing to post your plays. I've been following you and EP36 with some success this Aussie Open. What do you think about Raonic over Hewitt today? I know the line is too high for a straight wager (-360) but what about adding him into one of your parlays? Shouldn't his big serve be too much for Hewitt to handle?

[PLF]

Yeah I've gone for a $15 parlay on Sharapova/Ivanovic/Gasquet and Bartoli. Pays out $45.

BoL everyone and thanks for the post Greg.

[gregm]

Goblue, I didnt even look at that match for a side, I thought about the total. Raonic will have tons of nerves and while he seems to have handled it pretty well before, he has never played at this level in a slam with this kind of attention, against a guy like Hewitt who is on his curtain call at the AO, Hewitt isnt going to lay down.

Raonic has a great serve but Hewitt has traditionally had one of the best return games out there. I didnt see the hewitt/roddick match, roddick is another powerful server, once I found out the match was a retirement and all I am really going on is what people are saying about Hewitts game right now.

On paper Raonic seems the obvious choice but I thought dolgo looked like the obvious choice on paper as well but motivation and inspiration are impossible to handicap. I would take the over if anything, I like Ivanovic at those odds to add to a parlay but that is no sure thing either.

[benrama]

Like the Kuz/Lisicki over, also looking at today:

Kukushkin +2.5 sets @ +115 (he took a set off Murray in Brisbane and Monfils seems to always manage a brain implosion somewhere in a 5 set match)
Tipsy/Gasquet O38.5 games @ -133 (very evenly matched and should go at least 4 sets - one tie-break or 7-5 set gets you there and both players don't tank sets)
Kirilenko/Kvitova O18.5 -123 (I give this a chance in 2 sets but Kirilenko is better than players that Kvitova has been dropping sets to recently - Dulgheru and Suarez Navarro)

Only parlay I'm liking for the next 2 days involves the men - I could see Zvon/Kvitova/Sharapova all potentially losing to their opponents (in fact I may spread 1/3 a unit on each dog):

Fed/Nadal/Ferrer/Monfils/Raonic @ $1.83

I wouldn't equate Dolgo/Tomic with Hewitt/Raonic, firstly Dolgo actually was the better player IMO, he just couldn't convert his break chances - of which he had about double that of Tomic's, secondly Hewitt is far more mis-matched and has no weapons whatsoever, he's just an ordinary scrapper. Roddick just happens to be such a poor baseline player that Hewitt was always a chance, Raonic is much more solid.

Edited to add:

Also looking at King/Ivanovic O19 games

[Bbr]

BOL today Greg

[gregm]

Good luck guys. I like the picks benrama, I was thinking about that tips./gasquet over as well, I think I am going to hit that one too. I dont see much value tonight but on totals and overs. Alot of these matches seems alot closer than the odds indicate.

Adding

hewitt/raonic o38.5 -105 risk 1.05

Tipsarevic/gasquet o39 -110 risk 1.10

Arn +7.5 -1112 risk 1.12

[boondoggle]

this cirstea chic is truly obnoxious....I hope errani wins 3rd set 6-0.