[arie1985]

There was a race in Australia today in Moe, Race #1, a big longshot horse won the race.

Can anyone find out what was the matched price in BetFair for it? I tried downloading their free Horse Racing file but I couldn't understand anything there....

The race is this one:

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/horse-r...race-1-4911197

Is there any quick way of seeing what size of bets were matched for this horse in this race somehow? Does anyone know?

Thanks in advance for your help!

[thespeculator]

on twitter Barry Orr is quite helpful. I think he is @betfairbarry

[kkkkk]

i know that betfair publishes the data in weeks on their site, but you a tool to read it easy as well

[arie1985]

i know that betfair publishes the data in weeks on their site, but you a tool to read it easy as well

Where can you get the tool to read their data?

[littlekona]

this may help but does not show total pools
https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-ra.../race-1/winner

[arie1985]

this may help but does not show total pools
https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-ra.../race-1/winner

Thanks a lot!
So best BetFair odds were 100 on this one.... Incredible how accurate that is. Some horses with similar odds (90-1) are sometimes 500 to 1 in BetFair...

Still, I am still looking into more statistics in 2019 to see how often BetFair fails to predict it correctly.

[arie1985]

Another longshot won today:

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/horse-r...race-3-4913018

https://www.punters.com.au/racing-re...ee/2019-10-18/ (Race #3)

This one was traded 160-200 in BetFair, i.e. people were offering up to 200 to 1 on this one (even slightly more at some stage).

As you can see in punters.com.au the top bookmaker offer was 170 to 1, Bet365 had it for 101.00 and it won.

Doesn't look like laying longshot horses is worth it, it could happen in Austraila or in the UK, it's just not a solid way of making money in my opinion.

[arie1985]

And if you want a UK one, I literally just found it randomly without looking too hard (Google results of "long shot winners" won't show you this, you have to simply search it by dates in sites like punters.com.au) - there you go:

https://www.punters.com.au/racing-re...th/2019-08-27/

Race #5 - Valentine Mist (101.00) won the race.

Video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1VwHC6gZPko

SP odds confirmed to be 100/1:

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...rcouk-handicap

I'm sure if you further look you'd see more like these.

If you ask me - just lay a favorite horse and that's it, but that's already turning it into gambling, unless you got an "edge" from some source/for a reason etc.

[littlekona]

You should explore the usa tracks as you will find many 30-1 shots esp at smaller tracks that have zero chance...but like anything you need to familiarize yourself with the track and purchase the pp's....i have also found backing horses for placings can be profitable on the exchange as many times ill get a horse who is 2.10 on tote at 2.80 to show that has running style and race flow in favor to almost guarantee a 3rd place finish...its all still a gamble but edges like that are huge

[arie1985]

You should explore the usa tracks as you will find many 30-1 shots esp at smaller tracks that have zero chance...but like anything you need to familiarize yourself with the track and purchase the pp's....i have also found backing horses for placings can be profitable on the exchange as many times ill get a horse who is 2.10 on tote at 2.80 to show that has running style and race flow in favor to almost guarantee a 3rd place finish...its all still a gamble but edges like that are huge

Yeah, it sounds good but I'd skip on it.
I was looking for a "solid" investment, this is clearly in any shape or form not close to it.

[littlekona]

look at UK early jump card today...I see a few no chance longshots to lay since you like big odds all have look horrible no chance to win
Fakenham
2 MEGABUCKS
4 SEE THE CITY
6Champagne Vintage



Uttoxeter

1 no alarm
2 Willett
3 louse talk
4 Da Vous A Moi
5 maxi jazz
6 sussex road

[littlekona]

Ari, here is a couple nice site that offers free programs for intentional races that may help
https://www.hollywoodraces.com/horse...-performances/
https://www.brisnet.com/product/product/osa

[thespeculator]

like kona said it depends on the track. I have also noticed long shots hit in australia and ireland . In North America tracks like mountaineer park or delta downs favourites get out front early and the races is over. Woodbine is a great place for long shots

[littlekona]

like kona said it depends on the track. I have also noticed long shots hit in australia and ireland . In North America tracks like mountaineer park or delta downs favourites get out front early and the races is over. Woodbine is a great place for long shots

Monmouth is another track that rarely has bomb long shots....USA you see plenty of $10-$30 winners but the longer shots 50-1 + esp at some tracks are rare

[Optional]

like kona said it depends on the track. I have also noticed long shots hit in australia and ireland . In North America tracks like mountaineer park or delta downs favourites get out front early and the races is over. Woodbine is a great place for long shots

It will be the larger fields and only turf tracks for thoroughbreds down under at a guess.

[littlekona]

It will be the larger fields and only turf tracks for thoroughbreds down under at a guess.

amazing AUS has this race tonight THE TAB EVEREST 6 furlongs. Purse $9,450,000.00 very nice filed with one UK super sprinter shipping into try to beat the local sprinters REDZEL has won last 2 years and back in race
PIERATA may be worth a shot won the conciliation race last year

[Optional]

amazing AUS has this race tonight THE TAB EVEREST 6 furlongs. Purse $9,450,000.00 very nice filed with one UK super sprinter shipping into try to beat the local sprinters

That race comes from a battle between Randwick racecourse in Sydney and Flemington racecourse in Melbourne to have the biggest purse race in Australia.

It's a really really nice spring day here in Sydney for it. They will probably get around 50k people on course. Plus they market this race heavily to young/trendy/rich type crowd, average age on track will probably be about 30yo and all in Sunday best. Good for the industry.



Bad news as well though. A 60 minutes style TV show down here exposed hidden camera video of hundreds of ex race horses being abused in a slaughterhouse just last night https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-...rules/11611688

[littlekona]

That race comes from a battle between Randwick racecourse in Sydney and Flemington racecourse in Melbourne to have the biggest purse race in Australia.

It's a really really nice spring day here in Sydney for it. They will probably get around 50k people on course. Plus they market this race heavily to young/trendy/rich type crowd, average age on track will probably be about 30yo and all in Sunday best. Good for the industry.



Bad news as well though. A 60 minutes style TV show down here exposed hidden camera video of hundreds of ex race horses being abused in a slaughterhouse just last night https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-...rules/11611688

it goes off a tad after midnight here....that's sad story. happens here too esp with the greyhounds and now many states are banning that

[littlekona]

just watched the replay...yes yes yes! nice win that is a very nice turf course...The Uk O'brien invader I think was last

[littlekona]

my God just got easiest lay @ 1.95 odds for horse not to run in first 4 places QIPCO BRITISH CHAMPIONS FILLIES & MARES STAKES (GROUP 1)

the horse ANAPURNA actually slipped and fell real bad 1 min prior to race and they still let her run!!! total BS if you backed and lucjy watch catch for layers

[arie1985]

look at UK early jump card today...I see a few no chance longshots to lay since you like big odds all have look horrible no chance to win
Fakenham
2 MEGABUCKS
4 SEE THE CITY
6Champagne Vintage



Uttoxeter

1 no alarm
2 Willett
3 louse talk
4 Da Vous A Moi
5 maxi jazz
6 sussex road

How do you "know" that?

[littlekona]

How do you "know" that?

they just looked horrible form or not a good fit for the race metric's. They where all 20+ odds and at least 1 was 100+ ....Nothing is ever guaranteed but if you stick with a few circuits and look at the race form there are always a few everyday that seemingly have no chance...Ive noticed that the all weather tracks in UK produce more crazy long shots then the grass too so I would avoid the all weather tracks unless you see something with strong indicators.

[Poisec]

Another longshot won today:

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/horse-r...race-3-4913018

https://www.punters.com.au/racing-re...ee/2019-10-18/ (Race #3)

This one was traded 160-200 in BetFair, i.e. people were offering up to 200 to 1 on this one (even slightly more at some stage).

As you can see in punters.com.au the top bookmaker offer was 170 to 1, Bet365 had it for 101.00 and it won.

Doesn't look like laying longshot horses is worth it, it could happen in Austraila or in the UK, it's just not a solid way of making money in my opinion.

Last year the horse "feel glorious" won at odds of 1000 pre race (matched for 25 euros before the race). August 2018 if my memory is correct (somewhere in UK).

[littlekona]

Last year the horse "feel glorious" won at odds of 1000 pre race (matched for 25 euros before the race). August 2018 if my memory is correct (somewhere in UK).

I wonder how much of the actual matched on any given race is computer program generated vs stand alone punters entering manual