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Smogs Europa League Final Picks and Analysis - Atletico Madrid Vs Fulham
I've not been betting much recently for two reasons, building my bankroll for the World Cup, and failing to find anything with the end of European domestic football almost upon us.
Also, i have given this game my full attention for about a week now and will eclipse my previous bet of the year which ended break even with Newcastle and Middlesbrough drawing in March and pushing my DNB.
This game is intriguing, not just because it involves two teams from Europe's best leagues, but because it is a showdown between over and under achievers.
The Matchup
Fulham enter this game having ended the season with a lot of praise and respect. They have consolidated their position in the Premier League and have beaten some huge teams to get to this final. Wins over two legs against Shaktar, Juventus, Wolfsburg and Hamburg, not to mention the 1-1 draw with Roma which should have been a home win in the group stage.
From this they have clearly raised their game in Europe but as a result, their domestic form has suffered.
As a Boro fan i can understand that as we finished 12th (like Fulham) when we reached the final in 2006.
The problem for Fulham is mainly twofold, Zamora and Duff are questionable for Wednesdays game, with Zamora least likely to play. We usually see coaches try and bluff with key player injuries but with Roy Hodgson i believe we can take his words at face value that they may not be fully fit or play at all.
A lot will be required of the likes of Dempsey and Murphy to control the midfield battle, as Atletico could easily overwhelm Fulham with the quality they have.
Asuncao and Tiago were influential in their matchup with Gerrard, Lucas and Mascherano and i think the midfield duo of Etuhu and Murphy will struggle a lot in the final.
The key to Fulham has been their home form, but on the road in the Premier League this season they have been pretty poor. Their last 4 away trips in Europe have seen 3 draws and one defeat (Juve). I expect them to play tight and methodical with the emphasis on possession.
Atletico will look to control the play and encamp in Fulham's half for much of the game. I expect a very one sided game in that respect. Even with the threat of Zamora, i'd be shocked to see Fulham play 4-4-2 which would perhaps relieve the pressure on the Fulham defence, who should have a lot of work to do in this game keeping tabs on Aguero and Forlan.
The full backs for Fulham are going to have a tough time of it with Reyes and Simao looking to get the ball in, and with the constant changing of players that Hodgson has done, i do not think the team chemistry will be that of previous Europa ties.
Atletico have also had a pretty poor season by their standards, and will be of the same mindset here: to salvage a big cup from a inauspicious season so far.
The two teams have very differing aims, Atletico aim for Champions League, while Fulham are happy with mid-table. Whatever happens here for Fulham they have been on a good run this season. For Atletico however, they need this trophy or the season will be a disaster - mid table and no Europe next year to fund all the player investment.
The Scenario
In my opinion, everything points to an Atletico win. The similarities with Middlesbrough/Sevilla are uncanny:
Fulham have beaten teams rather closely up to this point, like Middlesbrough and also like Middlesbrough they experienced a huge turnaround in a game when they had to score 4 goals to progress (Boro vs Basel/Steau + Fulham vs Juve)
Poor league form leading up to the final and dropping players to rest them for the big occasion. We did that and ended the season very badly, and then got humped 4-0 in Eindhoven.
Also, who does Fulham have going to the World Cup? No one, yet Atletico have Forlan, Aguero, Reyes (perhaps), Tiago to name just a few. They will want to come into the WC with that medal.
Betting
Atletico are roughly 11/10 to win the game outright, and 4/7 to lift the trophy.
Fulham are 12/5 with the draw similar.
Fulham's rise to the final and media attention has been brilliant but i think they will fail to lift the trophy as overall quality should prove too strong for the Cottagers
Therefore, my bets are:
2 Units Atletico WIN @ 11/10
3 Units Atletico To Lift The Trophy @ 4/7
I just cannot see Fulham getting anything here, and i strongly believe that after a cagey 25 minutes, Atletico will dominate and win this by at least two goals.
looch10 gave Smogs 5 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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Originally Posted by Josu
