[Jaszaafca]

ball called out. that wasnt out. Fix is in boys cya later.

If its fixed it will be fixed on 1/2 and Colorado will get a pen or something in last minutes.

So ugly post.

[jessetk313]

i was joking sorry my sarcasm didnt come through.

[turtlejc]

that was one of the worst matches I have ever watched

probably why these guys are all in the MLS

[vasilli07]

The gk and goal post saved Chivas today. And Rapids really need to sign a striker.

[Jaszaafca]

No i ment that Colorado hit the ugly post haha.

[Jaszaafca]

The gk and goal post saved Chivas today. And Rapids really need to sign a striker.

Chivas was horrible, dunno who they play next but almost every team will beat them.

[jessetk313]

haha yea sorry for the misunderstanding. Yea I can't believe that match. Colorado had opportunities all night long.

[jessetk313]

Yea they get FC DAllas next I believe. I almost have to take Dallas big because Chivas is absolutely pathetic.

[jessetk313]

But then again I may be so mad if I ever lose to the CHivas team again ahaha.

[Jaszaafca]

Yea they get FC DAllas next I believe. I almost have to take Dallas big because Chivas is absolutely pathetic.

Yeah but Dallas is one of the teams I wont trust lol.

[DoggyStyle]

Chivas 6 shots colorado 26 and its a draw im happy i took under 2.5

[ExeRok]

Record:
Won 36
Lost 20
Refunded 3
Half Win 5
Half Lose 2
Return: 24.09%

[MatI]

Nice work in here exe

[ExeRok]

One I really like for next round:

Anzhi @ Zenit
Anzhi is undergoing massive reconstruction, selling all expensive players, returning all loaned players, changing coach, moving team from Moscow etc. This will mean that 9 of 11 starting players, and same proprotion of rotation players are gone from the team. So this is massive drop in quality of players and sudden changes. For this game, they won't even have forwards (Byrmistrov was loaned, but haven't played). And do I even need to tell how bad things look for Anzhi in midfield matchup. They don't even have midfield any more, because so many expensive players were there. Bad news before visit to St.Petesburg.
Zenit is one of the top teams at home plus they are one of the best teams when it comes to getting things done vs big underdogs. Danny is in great shape with 5 goals already, and when he is playing great, this team is unstoppable. He is real game changer for them and with enormous midfield advantage, this should be an easy win for Zenit.
Nothing is expected of Anzhi and they know they are going to lose here. So I don't expect anything but win here, but with possible heavily defensive approach from Anzhi it's not smart to go crazy with spread. So I will bet it like that:
Zenit St. Petersburg Handicap -0.5 and -1 for Game 1.559 Pinnacle 4/10
Zenit St. Petersburg Handicap -1.5 for Game 2.420 Pinnacle 1/10


There's also ton of value in prop bets. I personally bet Anzhi not to score @ 2 in my local. Also all kind of "Zenit win to nil" etc where Anzhi not to score is the part of the bet have value. As I said, they literally have no players in midfield, nobody of premier league level in offence. So I won't expect any goals from them here.



Other leans and opinions, all of them are risky, but have value:

Amkar@Ural
Great opportunity to play Ural pk, or go with their win for best value. Amkar is a great road fade, and right now they are even better. Their dumb coach is disrupting morale and showing his temper again. Ural has been underperfoming a little, so I expect a good perfomance from them. Nice odds, with win @ 2.4+

Rubin@Spartak
Don't know if it's good idea to play against Spartak now, but I gonna stick with my original thought about Rubin. They can take points here, and result I'm expecting is draw. But main thing is that I don't think Rubin is that big of underdog as odds suggest.

Tom@Kriliya
Tough situation, but it's always like that we bottom of the table teams. So main things here are that Tom is a great fade. They've been playing awfull, their defence is really bad. They draw a ton of penalties, make bad mistakes, type of guys who create goals for struggling offence. Krilya can use that. They are without head coach, and other little things, but here they will be able to play comfortably.
Also over looks great here. Odds suggest that it will be ugly lowscoring battle. But with defence like that, and completely opposite motivation of what odds suggest, it's great opportunity to risk on over. Over 2.25 @ 2+ and over 2.5 seems good too.
So Kriliya to win and over are what I like in this game.

Volga@Rostov
Another possible home winner with good odds. Rostov is hot right now so you can't ignore how well they've been perfoming. Volga is not good in finishing games and very unconsistent team in general. So even if they will be able to take lead, there still will be opportunities for this game to end right way.

[ExeRok]

Liked a lot of games early in the week, but when Pinny released odds, they were all decreased. So now it's a very tough card. But will write my thoughts anyway:

RSL@LA
Do or die situation for LA. Their playoff situation doesn't look good, with 8 of 9 teams still in the mix, and they got advantage only on San Jose. So this is a must win game for them. Playing at home and good form of Donovan can help the case. Don't like the idead of playing vs RSL @1.8, but I can see LA win happening.

Dallas@Portland
Dallas continue free fall, and it's hard to expect them to stop it @Portland. Timbers are not playing their best game (probably fatigue accumulating), but it's still their game to win.

[vasilli07]

What's your thoughts on Montreal Impact-DC United game?

[lucasdawg]

Liked a lot of games early in the week, but when Pinny released odds, they were all decreased. So now it's a very tough card. But will write my thoughts anyway:

RSL@LA
Do or die situation for LA. Their playoff situation doesn't look good, with 8 of 9 teams still in the mix, and they got advantage only on San Jose. So this is a must win game for them. Playing at home and good form of Donovan can help the case. Don't like the idead of playing vs RSL @1.8, but I can see LA win happening.

Dallas@Portland
Dallas continue free fall, and it's hard to expect them to stop it @Portland. Timbers are not playing their best game (probably fatigue accumulating), but it's still their game to win.

if la can take there chances while attacking i think they will get over the line RSL didnt look too good in attack last week. dallas seemed lucky last week, portland have fire power but still need to be sharp. so i think your leans are correct.

will be parlaying La and Portland, aswell as new england revolution and montreal impact

[lucasdawg]

Colorado Rapids 1.90 v Vancouver Whitecaps 4.00

strong considerations on whitecaps - thinking they will win over rapids easily
rapids looked like crap last week brown couldnt hit a target from anywhere.
at those odds willing to take the whitecaps. bol to everyone

[ExeRok]

What's your thoughts on Montreal Impact-DC United game?

I wrote about fading DC after their couple of good results, it worked last week. So I still feel the same, but odds are trash in this game plus Montreal played very poorly in away game against them. So that can be an extra confidence for DC. But main reason that's stopping me, is that betting Montreal at those odds is a bad idea. With current line you can only bet them at -0.75/-1, and they don't win with 2+ margin that often.

Colorado Rapids 1.90 v Vancouver Whitecaps 4.00
at those odds willing to take the whitecaps. bol to everyone

Fixed that one for you.

[ExeRok]

Zenit St. Petersburg Handicap -0.5 and -1 for Game 1.559 Pinnacle 4/10
Zenit St. Petersburg Handicap -1.5 for Game 2.420 Pinnacle 1/10
Score: 3-0

[swordsandtequila]

Zenit St. Petersburg Handicap -0.5 and -1 for Game 1.559 Pinnacle 4/10
Zenit St. Petersburg Handicap -1.5 for Game 2.420 Pinnacle 1/10
Score: 3-0

Wanted to give you props for the nice tip/writeup above. Checked it out after your initial post, odds moved dramatically, made a play this morning. Took -1/-1.5 @ +102. Nice stress-free cash. Cheers!

[chidondollars]

Wanted to give you props for the nice tip/writeup above. Checked it out after your initial post, odds moved dramatically, made a play this morning. Took -1/-1.5 @ +102. Nice stress-free cash. Cheers!

swordsandtequila, don't you think is high time you create a thread,we have so much respect for u.

[hotelis]

MTL-UNITED game should go over huh?

[hotelis]

great great game

[ExeRok]

Results of leans:
Ural pk void
Score: 0-0

Rubin +0.25 Half Win
Score: 0-0

Kriliya Win
Score: 1-0

LA Win
Score: 4-2

Portland Win
Score: 2-1

Expected lots of home winners in MLS, but it went even worse. As a result lost with Chicago and missed on Columbus/Houston wins. Hopefully SKC won't lose today. SKC pk is what I have for today.

[ExeRok]

Rostov Won
Score: 4-0

Nice week in RPL, hopefully can continue like that.

[ExeRok]

Krilya@Rubin
Early week odds, so now real choice of handicaps (at least at Pinnacle) but I'm willing to play their line. Rubin had played three 0-0 draws in a row, so not many people will like to play them to win comfortably here. But it's great, because odds are good and I'm more than happy to back them.
This is a derby game and a much easier opponent for Rubin. Rubin won all their home h2h games dating back to 2009. Their next 4 games will be day and night compared to their starting games. All games will be theirs to win. So after a confidence builder against Spartak now it's time to go home and start a streak of victories. They are elite team at home, with 10 victories in 15 matches. Krilya haven't shown improvement, and still without coach, so it they are currently a bottom team with expected 10+ loses on the road. I can also add that Krilya got all their points on the road against mediocre teams, or weak home teams. Almost all their games against big boys were lost. So comfortable win for Rubin looks like a sure thing in this one. Ofcourse playing with worse than -1 handicap is always dangerous, but in terms of game, this should be one sided. So if you can't go less than -1 (odds on that are already 1.75), I think going with -1.25 is optimal. In case of minimal victory loss will be 1/2, while very probable 2+goal win will have very nice odds.
Rubin Kazan Handicap -1 and -1.5 for Game @ 2.130 Pinnacle 0.8u


I'm putting 0.2u on prop bets of Rubin win to nil/KS won't score/both won't score etc, so if you don't want to do that you can play it as is or for regular 1u.



Ural@Kuban:
This is where I don't like Pinny's handicap but anyway. Story for this game is that it smashed between 2 very important Euro League games for Kuban. This is a very big deal for home team, their first experience. And with a very passionate and big fanbase, and city living with football this success in Europe is the single most important priority. Opponent is very strong (dutch Feyenoord) so it only adds to importance of those games, and first home game success especially.
So not only Kuban will be not fresh for weekend game, they won't have proper desire to win it, because all their thoughts will be on getting good result in first game and preparing for next one. All best players will be given rest or tired. And with not enough quality Russian players and limit of non locals in RPL games, their starting 11 will be weaker than usual, closer to mix or starters/reserves.
In contrast, Ural is on the rise and might be ready for some upsets. Promoted team, but they are playing well and have enough players with RPL experience. This is not the usual underdog team which have 0 offence and create goal for opponents with bad defence. In this matchup we don't need them to jump over their head. They just need not to lose big, and they are more than capable of doing it.
So both teams pulling in same direction with this handicap line. This game looks like a draw, and 2+ goal win for Kuban gonna be extremely rare. So playing Ural +1 is a very safe bet. I will play mix of +0.75 and +1.
Ural Sverdlovsk Oblast Handicap +0.5 and +1 for Game @ 2.20 Pinnacle 0.4u
Ural +1 @ 1.83 Bet365 0.6u

Krasnodar@Anzhi
No odds in normal bookies probably cause they got burned in last game and now waiting for certain news about players. Lot of info is arriving in local news so situation is more clear than abroad. I only have lines @ locals but I can't find handicap I'm looking for.
Anyway, Anzhi is getting a very bad line after all this mess. So bad, that it's actually wrong. Being underdog against a very weak road team Krasnodar is a mistake. Despite all the problems, they are going to keep some key pieces of their roster. Greed is good after all for them and it seems like Eto'o won't find any suitors for his 20mln/year talents. So that and some personal agreements with owner might keep him in club untill the end of the year. So roster wise, they might return to their year old or something form, where they were top of the table team with guys like Juciley, Ahmedov, Joao Carlos etc. Not as bad as everybody all of the sudden think. And their roster against Zenit was surprisingly good for me, but it haven't helped. Playing at home and little more time and certainty can help. So this situation is not horrible for Anzhi, they have quality to be good team, they just need to solve everything with problematic players.
So playing +0.25 at home @ 2+ odds will be a great bet imo. When this will be available I will play it. 1/2 of regular stake, because you can't dismiss Anzhi's morale trouble. They can fix them soon, or it may be ongoing trouble whole season long.


Champions League Qualification (starting in 10 minutes)
Playing Zenit to win Pacos de Ferreira @ 1.75

[ExeRok]

Zenit Won
Score: 4-1

[vasilli07]

Any thoughts for Chivas USA v Dallas? Can they finally win?

[jessetk313]

I was actually thinking of going against Chivas but dont take my word.

[lucasdawg]

im going against them in a parlay with montreal,

that match chivas v colorado was awful. from then on I decided I will fade them next time round.
that was the worst mls game I;ve had ever watched the sad thing was colorado wasnt even able
to win the match finishing at a 1-1 draw.

my pick parlay:

Cd Heredia 3.20 v Montreal Impact 2.11

Chivas USA 2.80 v FC Dallas 2.33

was also going to take portland but Im on the fence with that match
thinking that RSL will spend most of their time defending rather then
attacking.. anyone have suggestions i like the odds of RSL though..they
could be determined after the loss to la last week..

[ExeRok]

Any thoughts for Chivas USA v Dallas? Can they finally win?

Nothing certain. These teams show completely different perfomance every game, so any time you take them you're guessing. Chivas destroy themselves with fouling and bad discipline, Dallas do the same with poor road defence. So trying to pick a winner between them is a very hard job. Dallas haven't won for ages. So, basically, when you take them pk you are just destroying value. But I would give them an edge here. They have heading threat, that's a weak spot for Chivas (not a lot of tall guys there). Plus they have something to fight for and they've been playing better last couple of games. So my leans would be Dallas and under. I like under better, it's not obvious like fading Chivas, and it has nice odds. Dallas is trouble for under in road games, but I think this has to be a tough game. Chivas is playing lowscoring games at home lately, so they will drag Dallas into it.
I will watch it live, so I'll probably wait for some live betting opportunities.

[jessetk313]

I may bet against chives every chance I get. Up 1-0 in the 63rd min they somehow lose 3-1. Cash it!

[ExeRok]

Ok, another tough week. But this one got some obvious plays.
SJ@Dallas:
I know how many reasons you have to hate Dallas. But I've seen a minimum to even consider playing them. So now at home, and with help from top trash overvalued road team in the universe, the can even make this work. Ignoring SJ latest results because of great price.
Dallas -0.25 @ 2.11

LA@Vancouver:
Vancouver at home is good for over anytime, but with LA visiting it's even more possible. LA struggles with defence on the road, but their offense is insane right now. Should be 2-1 type of game at least. Both will score is solid prop bet imo.
Over 2.5 @ 1.77

NY@Chivas:
With Chivas fighting for nothing, and NY poor road perfomance bugging everybody in the team, this can be a good opportunity for a road win. Chivas finds a way to put themselves into losing position, so both team can pull in the same direction. Odds are bad, but may be not bad enough to consider the obviuous.
Ny Win @ 1.96

[hotelis]

was hoping for u to release a pick for MTL.. kind of like watching them. too bad guess ill pass this time.