1. 09-12-12 12:16 PM #1
    silvap
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    Brazil Serie A

    Lots of games tonight in Brazil's Serie A, here's where i see value:

    Portuguesa vs Fluminense pk and -0.5 (2.1 at pinnacle) - Excelent price here for the league leaders. Portuguesa seems tough at home at first - they are 7th in the home standings (11th overall) with only two home losses and unbeaten in their last 6 home matches. However, if we look further, we realise they have feasted against the weaker teams and really only have one win in five matches against the top half of the table teams. Fluminense is the top away tem in the league, having only one loss in 12 away matches. Needing the points, look for fluminense to try hard for the 3 points, which they should be able to get. Playing 2 Units on this one.

    Portuguesa vs Fluminense - under 2 and 2.5 goals (2.03 at pinnacle) - Only 27% of Portuguesa home matches and 33% of Fluminenses away matches have went over 2.5 goals and none of the 5 matches Portuguesa played against the top half of the table teams has had 3 or more goals. In Fluminenses away matches against teams ranked similiraly to Portuguesa (11th) (7th to 15th), only one in 6 matches went over. It's possible we only get a half win here, but stats show its highly unlikely the game will go over.

    Figueirense vs Cruzeiro pk and +0.5 (1.917) - Books are considering Figueirense the favourite to win here, which seems a bit of a stretch when we look and see that they are 19th overall and 18th at home, with only 3 wins in 12 home matches. As for 8th place Cruzeiro, they are actually 5th in away standings and have been playing better on the road than at home. Figueirense only has one win against the top half of the table teams. Don't think Cruzeiro should be a clear favourite to win, but here we get a good price to make money on either the better team winning or the draw.

    few more write-ups to follow.
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  2. 09-12-12 01:07 PM #2
    silvap
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    Sport Recife vs Bahia pk and +0.5 (1.87 pinnacle) - Local rivaly with both teams in good form recently. Recife coming from two home wins but with only 4 in 12 home matches, making them 17th overall and in the home standings. Bahia has been much better away, sitting in 7th in road standings and only 14th overall. They have not lost in their last 5 and have superb results in their last 3 matches: a shocking 4-0 win away from home vs 4th placed Vasco da Gama, a solid draw against 2nd place and contender Atletico Mineiro and a home win against Sao Paulo. With only one loss away from home against teams ranked in the bottom half of the standings, i love the price we're getting to profit from a win or a draw.

    Atletico Goianiense vs Coritiba - over 2.5 goals (1.89 pinnacle) - What we have here is the two worst defensive teams in Brazil facing each other. 75% of Coritibas away matches have ended with 3 or more goals, and all of the matches against the bottom half of the table teams (Atletico GO is dead last at 20th) have gone over (in fact, only one of those 7 games has had 3 goals - the 6 others have had 4+). They are averaging 2.5 conceded goals by themselves. Should be plenty of chances here.

    Vasco da Gama to win vs Palmeiras (1.917 pinnacle) - Vasco da Gama just fired their coach and have struggled a bit as of late, coming from a shocker 4-0 defeat to Bahia in their last one. However, they are still in 4th overall and should be motivated and energized as teams often are after a coaching change. Looking to stay in the G4 (the top four teams in the league, which get direct acess to Libertadores Cup, south america's Champions League), they have a great oportunity to get back on track as they face a team strugling even more than they are - Palmeiras, 18th overall and dead last in the away standings, having lost 9 in 11 matches. At close to even money, here's a team i'll gladly fade.

    Vasco and Palmeiras - over 2 and 2.5 goals (1.94 pinnacle) - Unusual line here as both teams have a record of goal scoring - 58% of Vasco's home matches and 64% of Palmeiras away matches have ended with 3 or more goals, and 6 of Palmeiras last 7 overall have gone over 2.5. Vasco's games have been a little more hit or miss lately but with the cushion to only get a half loss on two goals, i feel there is lots of value here.

    Santos vs Flamengo - over 2.5 goals (1.91) - Only Santo's home game to not have gone over 2.5 in their last 10 was last sunday's game against Sao Paulo. On that game, Neymar and Arouca were both out on Brazil national team duties and both will be back tonight. Santos defense has been atrocious all season and the only reason they did not concede against Sao Paulo was the shocking number of wasted oportunities by Sao Paulo's forwards, especially Luis Fabiano. Flamengo's last two road matches ended in 3-0 and 4-1 defeats. Two bad defenses facing eachother and Neymar and Arouca potencially having a field day here.

    Atletico Mineiro to win vs Sao Paulo (1.73) - Atletico Mineiro is second overall and the top home team, with 9 wins in 11 home matches. Sao Paulo is much worse away from home - they are 6th overall but only 10th away, with only 1 win in their last 6 road matches. On their last one, they could not beat a Santos team deprived of their top 3 players. For tonight, brazillian international (and future PSG player) Lucas is back but Luis Fabiano, the league's second top scorer will miss the game due to injury. Very decent price for Atletico here.

    That's it. Big card for tonight and hopefully plenty of value on this picks. Best of luck on your plays tonight. Cheers.
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  3. 09-12-12 02:15 PM #3
    cogiditopapa
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    Great info here. I have a few units myself on the coritiba over 2.5.
    I will tail your Santos and Flu pick, GL and thank for your time.
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  4. 09-12-12 02:53 PM #4
    Vaughany
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    On Fluminense PK as well
    Last edited by Vaughany; 09-12-12 at 02:57 PM.
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  5. 09-12-12 03:00 PM #5
    silvap
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    Vaughany, yup, all 3 are available for tonight. Wagner and Deco are missing due to injury though.
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  6. 09-12-12 03:07 PM #6
    adila1401
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    Hey man, as Cogi said, great write up and logic here..On Flu pk and Cortibia over myself but after a bit of research and seeing your picks, i will tail the rest haha..BOL man

    btw what are your thoughts on taking Santos ML to somewhat hedge the over, can't see them losing here
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  7. 09-12-12 03:09 PM #7
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by silvap View Post
    Vaughany, yup, all 3 are available for tonight. Wagner and Deco are missing due to injury though.
    yeah jus realised they'd been called up to future games for Brazil and not the ones that have just happened.
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  8. 09-12-12 03:17 PM #8
    silvap
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    I thought about taking Santos vs a very much struggling Flamengo team, but Santos defense is such a mess that i dont trust them at all. In Brazil, there are so many upsets and bizarre games that i rather just take the ones that really stand out as having value. Cheers and best of luck to us! Will be watching the Fluminense and Atletico Mineiro games back to back on tv. Should be a fun evening.
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  9. 09-12-12 03:48 PM #9
    lurevert7
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    How you do in serie be yesterday silv?
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  10. 09-12-12 04:02 PM #10
    onacloud
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    BOL today
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  11. 09-12-12 04:03 PM #11
    silvap
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    Around a half unit in the red, annoying Bragantino game had a goal in the 6th minute mark and nothing after that. Should have either gone bigger on the sao caetano pick or risked a little more and taken the moneyline instead of pk+0.5
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  12. 09-12-12 05:32 PM #12
    swordsandtequila
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    Nice summaries Silvap. Got Fluminense pk and the Coritiba/AG over. Also have Fluminense pk with Gremio ml (plays tomorrow night) in a 2 teamer +143, courtesy of BigBurk's parlay thread:

    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/soccer-bet...corner-p2.html

    He's been on a pretty good run. Once again, nice write-ups and good luck tonight
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  13. 09-12-12 05:34 PM #13
    kosti
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    Great analysis and write-up. Haven't followed or wagered on Brazilian soccer much but am interested to play of few of your picks as you clearly have taken a lot of time to research these choices. Is there a couple standout games from this large card that you are leaning stronger towards? or do you wager the same units per match?
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  14. 09-12-12 05:40 PM #14
    Vaughany
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    Damn Fred just missed a one-on-one
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  15. 09-12-12 05:41 PM #15
    Vaughany
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    Flum controlling things tho
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  16. 09-12-12 05:45 PM #16
    Vaughany
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    Good lord..almost shambolic goal there..terrible defending from Fluminense
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  17. 09-12-12 05:47 PM #17
    silvap
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    Yeah great chance for Fred, fluminense defence almost brain-farted a dumb goal there, defender took the ball out on the line.

    kosti - i flat bet one unit per bet, actually had a 2 unit play tonight which was fluminense, a game that started 15m ago.
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  18. 09-12-12 05:47 PM #18
    Vaughany
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    Freekick in dangerous position...Neves time
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  19. 09-12-12 05:50 PM #19
    silvap
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    Im considering taking the over 2and2,5 live on the fluminense game, at plus money, i'd guarantee a very small profit as the game is a lot more wide and open than i'd anticipated...
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  20. 09-12-12 05:54 PM #20
    Vaughany
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    fuuuck sake that was penalty!
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  21. 09-12-12 05:55 PM #21
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by silvap View Post
    Im considering taking the over 2and2,5 live on the fluminense game, at plus money, i'd guarantee a very small profit as the game is a lot more wide and open than i'd anticipated...
    yeah be surprised if there isnt at least 2 goals
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  22. 09-12-12 05:57 PM #22
    silvap
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    Yes, yes it was - clear penalty. Very open game, will lock that over live-bet in a little bit
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  23. 09-12-12 05:57 PM #23
    Vaughany
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    LOL if tht dude had of bundled through Fred outside the box a freekick would of been given without a second thought!
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  24. 09-12-12 05:59 PM #24
    Vaughany
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    ha fuuuckk sake, dude just body checked Carlinhos blatently!
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  25. 09-12-12 06:05 PM #25
    silvap
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    How quick is Carlinhos, btw...? Guessing he'll jump over to europe at some point
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  26. 09-12-12 06:13 PM #26
    Vaughany
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    Flum players look slow...cant counter attack for shiit
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  27. 09-12-12 06:13 PM #27
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by silvap View Post
    How quick is Carlinhos, btw...? Guessing he'll jump over to europe at some point
    Seems to be the only one...Neves and Fred cant keep up
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  28. 09-12-12 06:33 PM #28
    silvap
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    Rafael Sobis coming in for Fluminense, hopefuly he can create something for them
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  29. 09-12-12 06:36 PM #29
    swordsandtequila
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    Coritiba goal 1 minute in, nice
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  30. 09-12-12 06:42 PM #30
    silvap
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    Atletico GO ties, 2 goals in 12 minutes for that game. On the other hand, cruzeiro and bahia both down 1-0, still plenty of time though.
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  31. 09-12-12 07:02 PM #31
    silvap
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    Fluminense finally scores, up 1-0 with under 20 minutes left. They've been playing very poorly in the game - in fact almost conceded the tie on the very next play. Hopefuly they can hold on to this 1-0 lead.
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  32. 09-12-12 07:03 PM #32
    silvap
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    And as i write this, they make it 2-0 : ) gotta love soccer.
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  33. 09-12-12 07:11 PM #33
    swordsandtequila
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    Game doesn't start 'til the 2nd half . Benefitted and burned by last minute goals (and offsides!)
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  34. 09-12-12 07:21 PM #34
    silvap
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    Cruzeiro loses with a man down but the big play of the day cashes and half the under as well, so 3.5 units up in th first games finished, hopefully the remaining games will keep goiing well.
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  35. 09-12-12 07:31 PM #35
    aufordboy
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    Great write-ups....I've got 10 units on [25725] Flamengo - Santos FC 09/12/2012 (08:00 PM)
    Over 2½ Goals -135 for the Game
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