[gregm]

Bilbao (-5,-1) -138 risk 2.76

Off a pretty average day, a little in the black today with a small profit, but these are rough days for La Liga teams so maybe taking a punt on Bilbao isnt a good idea. Bilbao have been alot more impressive at home than on the road and Lisbons numbers on the road are very poor. Bilbao picked up a pretty impressive win over Manchester United here in San Mames back in March and have not lost in Europa league competition at home.

They are just outside the top 4 in La Liga play but judging from what I have read tonight they are primarily concentrated on Europa play and the Copa del rey final with Barcelona. They beat Manchester at home and away, they have beat an impressive Malaga team, won on the road in Germany against Schalke and held Schalke to a draw at home and advanced in europa play , held Barcelona to a draw at home, and they have beat top La liga teams like Levante and Atletico Madrid at home.

Lisbon has pretty poor numbers in Spain and they are only 2-8-4 in their last 16 away matches. They have only 1 victory in 7 Europa away league matches and are 1-3-3 overall away from Portugal. Losing to teams like Vaslul and Lazio on the road, but Lisbon have been phenomenal at home and won enough legs to get here.

Basque country is not an easy place to play and Sporting has dismal numbers overall on the road in Spain and all over Europe. Looking at the huge difference between the impressive Lisbon record on the road at home and their poor record on the road and in Spain, and then looking at the Bilbao home record, it is definitely worth a punt on Bilbao at this price.

[gregm]

I didnt see the first leg of this match in Portugal so if anyone has any thoughts and saw the match I would like to hear them. There is major difference in their away form and their home form though.

Lisbon Home record

Greens are wins

Home : Away : All Results : League Games Only
Games Ago	Date	Home Team	Score	Away Team	Competition
Last	19/04/2012	Sporting Lisbon	2-1	Athletic Bilbao	Europa League
2	09/04/2012	Sporting Lisbon	1-0	Benfica	Portugal Superliga
3	29/03/2012	Sporting Lisbon	2-1	Metalist Kharkiv	Europa League
4	24/03/2012	Sporting Lisbon	1-0	Feirense	Portugal Superliga
5	11/03/2012	Sporting Lisbon	5-0	Guimaraes	Portugal Superliga
6	08/03/2012	Sporting Lisbon	1-0	Man City	Europa League
7	26/02/2012	Sporting Lisbon	1-0	Rio Ave	Portugal Superliga
8	23/02/2012	Sporting Lisbon	1-0	Legia Warsaw	Europa League
9	19/02/2012	Sporting Lisbon	1-0	Pacos Ferreira	Portugal Superliga
10	29/01/2012	Sporting Lisbon	2-0	Beira Mar	Portugal Superliga
11	07/01/2012	Sporting Lisbon	0-0	FC Porto	Portugal Superliga
12	10/12/2011	Sporting Lisbon	1-0	Nacional	Portugal Superliga
13	01/12/2011	Sporting Lisbon	2-0	FC Zurich	Europa League
14	06/11/2011	Sporting Lisbon	3-1	Uniao Leiria	Portugal Superliga
15	24/10/2011	Sporting Lisbon	6-1	Gil Vicente	Portugal Superliga
16	20/10/2011	Sporting Lisbon	2-0	Vaslui	Europa League
17	29/09/2011	Sporting Lisbon	2-1	Lazio	Europa League
18	24/09/2011	Sporting Lisbon	3-0	Vitoria Setubal	Portugal Superliga
19	28/08/2011	Sporting Lisbon	2-3	Maritimo	Portugal Superliga
20	25/08/2011	Sporting Lisbon	2-1	FC Nordsjaelland	Europa League
21	13/08/2011	Sporting Lisbon	1-1	Olhanense	Portugal Superliga

Lisbon away record

Reds are losses, blues draws

Games Ago	Date	Home Team	Score	Away Team	Competition
Last	22/04/2012	Nacional	2-3	Sporting Lisbon	Portugal Superliga
2	05/04/2012	Metalist Kharkiv	1-1	Sporting Lisbon	Europa League
3	01/04/2012	Uniao Leiria	0-1	Sporting Lisbon	Portugal Superliga
4	19/03/2012	Gil Vicente	2-0	Sporting Lisbon	Portugal Superliga
5	15/03/2012	Man City	3-2	Sporting Lisbon	Europa League
6	03/03/2012	Vitoria Setubal	1-0	Sporting Lisbon	Portugal Superliga
7	16/02/2012	Legia Warsaw	2-2	Sporting Lisbon	Europa League
8	11/02/2012	Maritimo	2-0	Sporting Lisbon	Portugal Superliga
9	23/01/2012	Olhanense	0-0	Sporting Lisbon	Portugal Superliga
10	15/01/2012	Braga	2-1	Sporting Lisbon	Portugal Superliga
11	18/12/2011	Academica	1-1	Sporting Lisbon	Portugal Superliga
12	14/12/2011	Lazio	2-0	Sporting Lisbon	Europa League
13	26/11/2011	Benfica	1-0	Sporting Lisbon	Portugal Superliga
14	03/11/2011	Vaslui	1-0	Sporting Lisbon	Europa League
15	30/10/2011	Feirense	0-2	Sporting Lisbon	Portugal Superliga
16	02/10/2011	Guimaraes	0-1	Sporting Lisbon	Portugal Superliga
17	19/09/2011	Rio Ave	2-3	Sporting Lisbon	Portugal Superliga
18	15/09/2011	FC Zurich	0-2	Sporting Lisbon	Europa League
19	10/09/2011	Pacos Ferreira	2-3	Sporting Lisbon	Portugal Superliga
20	21/08/2011	Beira Mar	0-0	Sporting Lisbon	Portugal Superliga
21	18/08/2011	FC Nordsjaelland	0-0	Sporting Lisbon	Europa League

[camelbreath$]

I like it, I'm on Bilbao with you.

[vasilli07]

Like Bilbao too. Marcelo Bielsa is a great coach, hopefully he can rectify his errors in the 1st leg and win tonight.

[Shredder]

Wether or not I like the Bilbao pick or not, I do think your reasoning behind it shouldn't be too much on competition home/away record. Your write up has some contradiction in it as well, but that's my opinion.

I saw the game and was pretty surprised by Bilbao. They usualy are a team that plays good football, with good positioning. This game however they didn't come anywhere close to that and they didn't create much. Sporting was in my eyes the much better team with endless drive and effort that had an unfortunate goal against them which played into Bilbao's cards because they could lean back and counter. Sporting should have made it 3-1 but they missed 2 really good chances near the end.

In this game Sporting can sit back a bit like the games against City and Metalist. They have some quick guys and are good in the counter and standard situations and I really see them score one tonight. Bilbao do have the better team in general I think, but for me this game is pretty though from what I saw last match. Small lean towards Bilbao but an advancing Sporting wouldn't surprise me at all.

Good luck!

[gregm]

Thanks Guys. I hope Bilbao can come through today, I wish I had of seen that first leg and seen Bilbao play more this season but sometimes all you have is numbers and stats to work with. Hope it comes through. Cheers

[vasilli07]

Winner....

[camelbreath$]

winner winner chicken dinner