One thing i have always tried to do was find smaller leagues and watch the markets and the volumes to see if you can find any patterns. I havent had much luck with the english championship but this champions league game today isnt an easy one to call. Even the props don't seem to offer much value here, but I am going to take a punt on the side on the Munich/Madrid side and go with a few english picks.
Munich is really coming off a lousy week last week and I was really disappointed with their Bundesliga run, I really thought they had a chance to win the league and the draw at home with Mainz seems a little bizarre to me. I saw Robben clapping as he came off the pitch after that sub par performance against Mainz and from reading Heynckes interviews and judging from their starting lineup against Mainz ,it looks like they conceded the title and were focusing on this match.
Munich certainly have looked alot better in champions league competition than they have in Bundesliga lately, and they have been absolutely dominant at home in champions league play. Munich have won 8 of their 9 match ups against Madrid at home and drew the other one and Munichs overall home numbers have been phenomenal, winning 13 of their 14 last home games.
Madrid has an abysmal record in Germany winning only one of their last 22 visits to Deutschland, but they havent lost in champions league yet, of course, they havent had the toughest of competition. Hopefully Munich can open up some space for Robben and Munich certainly has the means to attack with Ribery, Robben, Gomez and Muller, but Mourinho may play a more defensive style of play here. With Ronaldo, Ozil and Benzema though, I just dont think this will be a low scoring draw but we will see.
Munich has one of the best outside backs playing football today in Lahm who may be able to control Ronaldo but it won't be easy. I am just going to have to go with Munichs dominance at home here and Madrids traditionally poor showings in Germany, I would lean the under but with guys like Ronaldo on the pitch, and with Robben and Ribery on the wings for Munich and two teams filled with attackers, I think any under is going to always be a tough call.
I would expect some sort of 4-2-3-1 for both teams but Mourinho could really do what he did with Inter against Barcelona in the champions league final two years ago against Barcelona and attack at home and shoot for a draw away. I just think with muller and with ribery and robben on the wings that is a dangerous strategy, Munich is much better than most of the sides Madrid has faced in champions league and even in la liga outside of Barcelona. I just hope we don't see the Munich side we saw last week and while a draw would not surprise me, bayerns numbers at home are too dominant and Madrids numbers are so poor in Germany,I am going to take a shot on the side here.
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