1. 02-24-12 09:50 AM #1
    allin1
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    System test

    Metz +0.5 (+100)
    Duisburg DNB (+135)
    SGD vs. MSV Duisburg U2.5(+110)

    this is just a test with some free-plays. I am not risking any real money on them.
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  2. 02-24-12 10:07 AM #2
    allin1
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    Telstar - Zwolle

    Telstar +1 @1.79
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  3. 02-24-12 10:57 AM #3
    TonyDimy
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    And what's the system exactly?
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  4. 02-24-12 11:02 AM #4
    allin1
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    Something based on line movements and probabilities
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  5. 02-24-12 12:57 PM #5
    allin1
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    .

    Quote Originally Posted by allin1 View Post

    Duisburg DNB (+135)
    SGD vs. MSV Duisburg U2.5(+110)
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  6. 02-24-12 03:04 PM #6
    allin1
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    Quote Originally Posted by allin1 View Post
    Metz +0.5 (+100)
    Quote Originally Posted by allin1 View Post
    Telstar - Zwolle Telstar +1 @1.79
    3 losses and 1 win
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  7. 02-24-12 04:10 PM #7
    littlezola
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    I might be way off, but is your system betting on underdogs whose odds have dropped from the opening posted prices.

    I've seen people try and get an edge this way, but I've yet so see any evidence it works.

    One of the flaws being that:

    a)a price opens that is weighted 'incorrectly' towards the favorite OR a favorable price is posted to tempt action on the underdog
    b)value is idenitfied in the underdog.
    c)action causes a drop in price
    b)the system needs the que of dropping odds, so by the time it identifies a bet it's only after they've been canned by everyone and odds become less attractive or lose value.
    e)the bet becomes a bad bet.

    and that's just the start of it. as i mentioned in other posts around this subject, until you can identify the source of the money causing odds drops (sharps, laying, abritage opportunities etc.) then odds drops are not a reliable means of identifying winners.
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  8. 02-24-12 04:16 PM #8
    allin1
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    Littlezola it's not about underdogs or line drops.

    I think I have to pay more attention to the hour before kick off and only then make a decision. Also it seems that is best to apply it only to very popular markets like big europe leagues
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  9. 02-24-12 05:08 PM #9
    allin1
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    Actually I would prefer the lines not to move in order to bet on it
    Last edited by allin1; 02-24-12 at 05:27 PM.
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  10. 02-24-12 05:51 PM #10
    littlezola
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    yeah, it was just a guess based on the matches you posted.

    anyway, good luck with this system, i hope it works out for you.
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  11. 02-24-12 05:59 PM #11
    allin1
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    Quote Originally Posted by littlezola View Post
    yeah, it was just a guess based on the matches you posted.

    anyway, good luck with this system, i hope it works out for you.
    Thanks. I don't think it will work but I can probably learn new stuff and get experience by fooling around with it. I do it out of passion
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  12. 02-24-12 06:10 PM #12
    littlezola
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    yeah, any of these test's are worthwhile.

    there is so much historical data and powerful statistical software that finding a system is possible. its just that there are so many variables and pitfalls that it is sometimes difficult to know what is significant and what isn't.

    if you need any help with statistical modeling or anything, let me know.
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  13. 02-25-12 05:54 AM #13
    allin1
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    Quote Originally Posted by littlezola View Post
    if you need any help with statistical modeling or anything, let me know.
    I will contact you by pm regarding this. Thanks
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  14. 02-25-12 05:55 AM #14
    allin1
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    St. Mirren - Aberdeen Under 2 @2 I don't like it that much because the odds dropped but still I will be watching it.
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  15. 02-25-12 06:08 AM #15
    allin1
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    sassuolo - ascoli: 2 +0.75 @1.95
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  16. 02-25-12 06:34 AM #16
    allin1
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    Bayer 04 Leverkusen ML 1.95
    Freiburg +0.5 2.11
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  17. 02-25-12 06:36 AM #17
    allin1
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    Nottingham +1 1.81
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  18. 02-25-12 06:37 AM #18
    allin1
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    Crystal Palace +1 @ 1.78
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  19. 02-25-12 07:00 AM #19
    MatI
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    Nice. You are allowed lots of free plays.
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  20. 02-25-12 07:08 AM #20
    allin1
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    Quote Originally Posted by MatI View Post
    Nice. You are allowed lots of free plays.
    the free plays were in the first day. these are mostly fictional bets
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  21. 02-25-12 07:09 AM #21
    MatI
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    I see.
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  22. 02-25-12 07:12 AM #22
    allin1
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    Newcastle @1.53 - Wolves
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  23. 02-25-12 07:40 AM #23
    allin1
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    Kaiserslautern +0.75 @1.82
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  24. 02-25-12 07:42 AM #24
    allin1
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    Hoffenheim +0.25 @ 1.88
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  25. 02-25-12 07:46 AM #25
    allin1
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    Bristol City +0.25 @1.76 Unfortunately this line dropped a lot so maybe DNB @2.11 is a better choice
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  26. 02-25-12 07:50 AM #26
    allin1
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    Quote Originally Posted by allin1 View Post
    St. Mirren - Aberdeen Under 2 @2 I don't like it that much because the odds dropped but still I will be watching it.
    push
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  27. 02-25-12 08:43 AM #27
    allin1
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    Quote Originally Posted by allin1 View Post
    Crystal Palace +1 @ 1.78
    winner
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  28. 02-25-12 08:53 AM #28
    allin1
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    Motherwell +1.5 @1.78
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  29. 02-25-12 09:54 AM #29
    allin1
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    Quote Originally Posted by allin1 View Post
    sassuolo - ascoli: 2 +0.75 @1.95
    winner

    Quote Originally Posted by allin1 View Post
    Freiburg +0.5 2.11
    loser
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  30. 02-25-12 10:11 AM #30
    allin1
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    Quote Originally Posted by allin1 View Post
    Kaiserslautern +0.75 @1.82
    Loser
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  31. 02-25-12 10:18 AM #31
    allin1
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    Quote Originally Posted by allin1 View Post
    Bayer 04 Leverkusen ML 1.95
    Quote Originally Posted by allin1 View Post
    Hoffenheim +0.25 @ 1.88
    both winners
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  32. 02-25-12 10:22 AM #32
    allin1
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    Quote Originally Posted by allin1 View Post
    Nottingham +1 1.81
    Quote Originally Posted by allin1 View Post
    Newcastle @1.53 - Wolves
    Quote Originally Posted by allin1 View Post
    Bristol City +0.25 @1.76 Unfortunately this line dropped a lot so maybe DNB @2.11 is a better choice
    Quote Originally Posted by allin1 View Post
    Motherwell +1.5 @1.78
    4 still pending
    so far for today: 4-2-1
    since beginning: 5-5-1 +0.61U
    Last edited by allin1; 02-25-12 at 10:27 AM.
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  33. 02-25-12 10:40 AM #33
    allin1
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    Roda - Graafschap +2 @1.57
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  34. 02-25-12 10:54 AM #34
    allin1
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    Quote Originally Posted by allin1 View Post
    Nottingham +1 1.81
    win
    Quote Originally Posted by allin1 View Post
    Newcastle @1.53 - Wolves
    loss
    Quote Originally Posted by allin1 View Post
    Bristol City +0.25 @1.76 Unfortunately this line dropped a lot so maybe DNB @2.11 is a better choice
    loss
    Quote Originally Posted by allin1 View Post
    Motherwell +1.5 @1.78
    win

    since beginning: 7-7-1 +0.2U
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  35. 02-25-12 12:30 PM #35
    allin1
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    Quote Originally Posted by allin1 View Post
    Roda - Graafschap +2 @1.57
    I am not taking this anymore.
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