1. 06-22-11 04:22 PM #1
    RoagBettor
    RoagBettor's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-20-09
    Posts: 8,355
    Betpoints: 297

    Roag's 2-5 Draw System Plays

    OK, this is a test project using the 2-5 system for Draws:

    June 22 Plays (all plays are at 5Dimes) - we are opening up 2 series tonight

    Series 1, Bet 1: 6/22/2011 7:30 PM USA MLS Soccer 153 Draw (Sporting Kansas City (USA-MLS) vs Philadelphia Union (USA-MLS))* +222 - $10 to win $22.20

    Series 2, Bet 1: 6/22/2011 8:30 PM USA MLS Soccer 156 Draw (Salt Lake (USA-MLS) vs Chicago (USA-MLS))* +224 - $10 to win $22.40

    *For those who don't know the 2-5 system, we are basically trying to win 2 bets out of 5 in a series. I'll be opening up multiple series based upon the strength of each play. When we win 2 bets, that series is closed. We're only betting small since this is a test project. I'll give it a few weeks and if we're making money we'll continue.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 06-22-11 04:36 PM #2
    unclebuzz1
    unclebuzz1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-23-09
    Posts: 565
    Betpoints: 2502

    I had to look quite awhile but I finally found you. Is there a preset amount for each step? How high do the last bets get? GL
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 06-22-11 04:54 PM #3
    pacers101
    pacers101's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-07-11
    Posts: 603
    Betpoints: 156

    GL, i'm on it too. but I RR w/ cordoba/river platte in argentina.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 06-22-11 04:54 PM #4
    RoagBettor
    RoagBettor's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-20-09
    Posts: 8,355
    Betpoints: 297

    Quote Originally Posted by unclebuzz1 View Post
    I had to look quite awhile but I finally found you. Is there a preset amount for each step? How high do the last bets get? GL
    Since we're playing Draws with odds generally over +200 I'm going to change the bet amounts from the traditional 2-5 to the following. We can adjust accordingly based upon the results:

    Bet 1 (b1) = $10
    b2=$20
    b3=$40
    b4=$60
    b5=$80
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 06-22-11 05:53 PM #5
    sharknut
    sharknut's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-20-09
    Posts: 80
    Betpoints: 0

    wow 2-5 on a system with regular $3+ plays. You have balls of steel Roag, good luck mate, if this works you will be the kIng of soccer!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 06-22-11 06:06 PM #6
    White Rhino
    White Rhino's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-05-09
    Posts: 601
    Betpoints: 0

    I look forward to the new system. Hope it works.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 06-22-11 07:24 PM #7
    Ace_of_Spades
    Golazo De Riverrrr!
    Ace_of_Spades's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-14-09
    Posts: 13,518
    Betpoints: 79

    MLS is the best place to start for draws.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 06-22-11 07:59 PM #8
    dume walker
    dume walker's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-08-10
    Posts: 971
    Betpoints: 0

    Quote Originally Posted by RoagBettor View Post
    Since we're playing Draws with odds generally over +200 I'm going to change the bet amounts from the traditional 2-5 to the following. We can adjust accordingly based upon the results:

    Bet 1 (b1) = $10
    b2=$20
    b3=$40
    b4=$60
    b5=$80
    So, to state and confirm the obvious, maximum exposure for each series is $210. And you have to have at least 1 draw out of the 5 games picked.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 06-22-11 08:19 PM #9
    skyscrapers
    Go Big or Go Home
    skyscrapers's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-02-11
    Posts: 5,930
    Betpoints: 33900

    Hi Roag, looking good on the first game of your project. Scoreless draw with less than 10 minutes left.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 06-22-11 08:26 PM #10
    dume walker
    dume walker's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-08-10
    Posts: 971
    Betpoints: 0

    Quote Originally Posted by skyscrapers View Post
    Hi Roag, looking good on the first game of your project. Scoreless draw with less than 10 minutes left.

    Ssshhhh... The gods may be listening... Don't want to wake them...
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 06-22-11 08:28 PM #11
    unclebuzz1
    unclebuzz1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-23-09
    Posts: 565
    Betpoints: 2502

    1st one's in the books ...
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 06-22-11 08:29 PM #12
    RoagBettor
    RoagBettor's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-20-09
    Posts: 8,355
    Betpoints: 297

    Series 1, Bet 1: 6/22/2011 7:30 PM USA MLS Soccer 153 Draw (Sporting Kansas City (USA-MLS) vs Philadelphia Union (USA-MLS))* +222 - $10 to win $22.20



    Always nice to start a new system with a win!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 06-22-11 09:30 PM #13
    RoagBettor
    RoagBettor's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-20-09
    Posts: 8,355
    Betpoints: 297

    Series 2, Bet 1: 6/22/2011 8:30 PM USA MLS Soccer 156 Draw (Salt Lake (USA-MLS) vs Chicago (USA-MLS))* +224 - $10 to win $22.40



    2-0 on the night!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 06-22-11 09:30 PM #14
    skyscrapers
    Go Big or Go Home
    skyscrapers's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-02-11
    Posts: 5,930
    Betpoints: 33900

    Good job Roag!! 2 for 2.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 06-22-11 09:30 PM #15
    unclebuzz1
    unclebuzz1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-23-09
    Posts: 565
    Betpoints: 2502

    Quote Originally Posted by unclebuzz1 View Post
    1st one's in the books ...
    2nd one's in the books ...
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  16. 06-22-11 09:32 PM #16
    RoagBettor
    RoagBettor's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-20-09
    Posts: 8,355
    Betpoints: 297

    Series 3, Bet 1: 6/23/2011 1:00 PM Sweden Soccer 518 Draw (Mjallby (SWE-A) vs Syrianska FC (SWE-A))* +227 - $10 to win $22.70
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  17. 06-22-11 09:47 PM #17
    Jimbo42
    Jimbo42's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-04-09
    Posts: 2,076
    Betpoints: 0

    Quote Originally Posted by dume walker View Post
    So, to state and confirm the obvious, maximum exposure for each series is $210. And you have to have at least 1 draw out of the 5 games picked.
    you need to win two to close out the series bro....win one only and ur goose is cooked
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  18. 06-22-11 09:48 PM #18
    Jimbo42
    Jimbo42's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-04-09
    Posts: 2,076
    Betpoints: 0

    You are just opening series bro? no b2 bets??
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  19. 06-22-11 09:52 PM #19
    RoagBettor
    RoagBettor's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-20-09
    Posts: 8,355
    Betpoints: 297

    Quote Originally Posted by Jimbo42 View Post
    You are just opening series bro? no b2 bets??
    Starting off slowly, we'll have some b2's this weekend with more MLS matches coming up
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  20. 06-22-11 10:02 PM #20
    Jimbo42
    Jimbo42's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-04-09
    Posts: 2,076
    Betpoints: 0

    Don't be too careful... let it flow
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  21. 06-22-11 11:45 PM #21
    Popular
    Popular's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-19-10
    Posts: 433
    Betpoints: 24

    Love this thread =).. Wish you would've made this your new home for all the plays and get away from all the traffic the NBA forum gets but it's all good =).. Let's get it tomorrow
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  22. 06-23-11 12:17 AM #22
    Bengals28
    Success is one thing, Impact is another
    Bengals28's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-20-11
    Posts: 2,164
    Betpoints: 0

    Dang, missed the first 2. Just put my play in for the game tomorrow, will be tailing from here on out!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  23. 06-23-11 12:22 AM #23
    owl
    owl's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-03-09
    Posts: 1,566
    Betpoints: 28090

    RB, when you come up with your systems that generate picks do you do a lot of back-testing?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  24. 06-23-11 09:59 AM #24
    fitguy67
    blessed be the cheesemakers
    fitguy67's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-13-11
    Posts: 5,082
    Betpoints: 3358

    if we'd feel more comfy mm-wise with a 33% break even and wanted to play 2-6...how would the bet sizes adjust (btw...i'd strongly suggest you consider taking this slightly more conservative route...cuz no matter how good a capper you are, 40% hit rate is just too optomistic)
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  25. 06-23-11 10:00 AM #25
    fitguy67
    blessed be the cheesemakers
    fitguy67's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-13-11
    Posts: 5,082
    Betpoints: 3358

    for hitting DRAWS, of course (not sides/totals)
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  26. 06-23-11 10:50 AM #26
    RoagBettor
    RoagBettor's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-20-09
    Posts: 8,355
    Betpoints: 297

    Quote Originally Posted by fitguy67 View Post
    if we'd feel more comfy mm-wise with a 33% break even and wanted to play 2-6...how would the bet sizes adjust (btw...i'd strongly suggest you consider taking this slightly more conservative route...cuz no matter how good a capper you are, 40% hit rate is just too optomistic)
    No, I don't want to use the 2-6 because that b6 would be like $120 and I don't want to risk that much. We're going to lose series there's no question about it, I'm still running the numbers to see how many series wins we need for every loss. The other option we have is instead of betting "to risk" we could bet "to win"; with the odds over +200 for these plays the amount risked is cut in half (or less) and the series loss(es) would be minimized.

    Let's see how it goes for 2-3 weeks, then we can make adjustments as needed. This isn't going to be easy, but it can be profitable.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  27. 06-23-11 03:56 PM #27
    fitguy67
    blessed be the cheesemakers
    fitguy67's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-13-11
    Posts: 5,082
    Betpoints: 3358

    the "to risk" version of betting is perfectly suited to any sort of "loss+chalk recuperation" method (be it a "series"/"chase" to win or a "line" to clear)...it'd be interesting to compare on back data the average cost of 2-6 series losses bet "to win" vs. 2-5 series losses bet "to risk"
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  28. 06-23-11 04:17 PM #28
    RoagBettor
    RoagBettor's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-20-09
    Posts: 8,355
    Betpoints: 297

    Quote Originally Posted by fitguy67 View Post
    the "to risk" version of betting is perfectly suited to any sort of "loss+chalk recuperation" method (be it a "series"/"chase" to win or a "line" to clear)...it'd be interesting to compare on back data the average cost of 2-6 series losses bet "to win" vs. 2-5 series losses bet "to risk"
    Right. I don't have time right now but hopefully this weekend I'll be able to crunch some numbers.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  29. 06-23-11 08:43 PM #29
    doubledime
    doubledime's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-22-09
    Posts: 9,751
    Betpoints: 8876

    Good luck RB
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  30. 06-23-11 11:10 PM #30
    RoagBettor
    RoagBettor's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-20-09
    Posts: 8,355
    Betpoints: 297

    Series 1, Bet 2: 6/24/2011 8:00 PM Brazil Soccer 356 Draw (Gremio Barueri (BRA-B) vs Ituiutaba Esporte Clube (BRA-B))* +234 - $20 to win $46.80

    Series 2, Bet 2: 6/24/2011 2:35 PM Rep Ireland Soccer 503 Draw (Shamrock Rovers (IRE-P) vs Sligo Rovers (IRE-P))* +235 - $20 to win $47

    *We won the first bets in both Series 1 & 2; we lost the first bet in Series 3.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  31. 06-23-11 11:17 PM #31
    Bell Curves
    Bell Curves's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-20-11
    Posts: 348
    Betpoints: 54

    The Ireland one is is at +228 on pinnacle.

    Also, sincere regards for your daughter.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  32. 06-24-11 04:08 AM #32
    owl
    owl's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-03-09
    Posts: 1,566
    Betpoints: 28090

    Godspeed regarding your daughter's surgery.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  33. 06-24-11 10:00 AM #33
    Each Hit
    Each Hit's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-03-10
    Posts: 26
    Betpoints: 0

    All the best and well wishes for your family.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  34. 06-24-11 10:51 AM #34
    risk_ay
    risk_ay's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-11-10
    Posts: 147
    Betpoints: 100

    All the best to your daughter today!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  35. 06-24-11 02:04 PM #35
    Vinotinto
    Vinotinto's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-21-10
    Posts: 46
    Betpoints: 49

    The best for your daughter and family Mate...
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
12 Last
Top
« Previous Thread | Soccer Betting | Next Thread »