The sharp forecast is just that, a sharp forecast. It will beat the closing line, has every game this year, but that aberration could be because I post the opening plays and these markets aren't very liquid.
It is designed to beat the market against the spread and Totals (although I have been warning about the Total performance this year, there is evidence it is getting stronger) and is designed to predict the moneyline, particularly upsets, in a very narrow range, of about 1/3rd of the time, all the time. It doesn't go far from center, when it comes to predicting upsets. It is a gauge to follow in terms of the market.
The sharp forecast has beaten the spread considerably the last three years and was shared on SBR. Let's see if it can continue to do so.
One thing about the sharp forecast is that it is dynamic, not static. It does not rely on static, historical black box type models as a sole source of prediction. It takes into account the current market environment and can often vary from the market quite a bit, revealing inefficiencies.
The stacking percentages forecast does just that. It stacks percentages and angles to develop an edge using static historical data. It is designed to beat the market but also designed to have less of an average line error than the books themselves. As we get more games, we will test these results.
The non-predictive public gauge is designed to assess the public sentiment at the time. It involves relatively common ratings as well as taking into account simple forecasting methods that may often times be subject to a recency bias, to it's detriment.
I believe both the sharp and stacking forecasts will be profitably this year against the spreads and have no reason to vary from that prediction.
We will see.