The sharp forecast has Golden State beating Cleveland 112-110. The public gauge gives Golden State a 120-111 win.
The line sits between the gauge and the forecast and appears to be drawing relatively even money. The Total is also between the numbers and closer to the gauge. While the forecast finally calls for the Under and the line has ticked slighlty that way since the open, I believe the books are leaving room for a little bit of public Over buying, but not as much as we've seen.
The forecast calls for the underdog to cover and, as posted before, I have Cleveland +7. I have also bought +7.5 and a little bit of the upset from +260 to +264.
I have metrics indicating the underdog, the upset, and success of the forecast against the spread. I can't say the same for success of the forecast against the moneyline, which bodes well for Cleveland backers.
Also, with the public gauge as high as 9 points and some public buying on both the favorite and the Over, I like the forecast's chances here.
I would have written more and sooner, but as it is I'm in safe mode.
Computer problems have resurfaced...
The forecat is frantic...