[KVB]

[KVB]

[KVB]

[SBRMAN23]

She looks so happy and has a bounce to her step

[Bostongambler]

Looks like St. Pauly girl.

[Bostongambler]

In the meantime, here's a nice video to watch...

Why thank u Sir! Much enjoyed.

[KVB]

Fuk, the NFL is hiding an upset.

The bait is Houston to beat Minnesota. I think it's not the upset and that it may look like Houston today, until it's not them...a potential live bet.

So who is it? It could be Cleveland over NE, the Jets over Pittsburgh, or even just plain Chicago over Indy this morning. I have more questions than answers as the market wants us to gamble.

Any given Sunday.

I'm looking at Cleveland +10 points and watching the games live if I can this morning. I put some pretty solid market reads in here yesterday and may have to see this market start up to read it. Perhaps some more information this afternoon or evening.

Frustrating to not have a bunch of plays to share right now but that's way it goes sometimes...patience is a virtue.

[KVB]

Skipping church to watch the markets today, sending the family...

[KVB]

I went live...

Football - .PITTSBURGH STEELERS vs NEW YORK JETS - Game - Money Line (Including OT) NEW YORK JETS +316

I may sell back if the opportunity arises.

[KVB]

[KVB]

Another live one...

I don't usually do past forecasts but I have Tennessee winning this game against Miami 20-17...notice the line movement.

While my forecasts are good this in week 5, I think this upset is a big fat lie so I bought Miami live...

Money Line: MIA Dolphins +325.743 - Sun Oct 09 2016 12:50EST: TEN Titans @ MIA Dolphins

[KVB]

Well these little live bombs were fun, but it's time to get to business. Time to pay attention to detail.

[KVB]

My reaction play is Oakland Raiders -194 and -3.5 (-107) over San Diego Chargers.

My forecast is a 41 to 41 tie but gives the edge in a raw score to San Diego. I can't believe it but go Raiders!

[KVB]

[PerfectGrape]

Wnba who you got quick?

[KVB]

Minnesota gun to my head.

[PerfectGrape]

damn me too, sprinkled the sparks ML though for a gamble

[PerfectGrape]

maybe try to get Minny later, tailing (failing) on Oakland

[KVB]

Raiders come through, my 5 pick parlay is finished, this one paying 7.95 to 1...

Golf - 923002 United States (Alt 1) +½ -210 for Game
Football - 108 BYU -160 for Game
Basketball - 601 Los Angeles Sparks -345 for Game
Football - 401 Alabama -14 -110 for Game
Football - 470 Oakland Raiders -194 for Game



I know it's after the fact and I regret not having time to print all the forecasts but you've heard me say my forecasts perform well in week 5.

Well here's the results so far, since Thursday night...

In plays where a play is triggered ATS, 9-0 against the openers and 8-1 against the closers (Philly covered the opening +2 but not the closing line.) In 3 games the lines were too close to the forecast for a bet.

When it comes to winners my forecasts are 8-2, with Baltimore and Philly failing. Both the Atlanta/Denver game and the SD/Oak game had forecasts of 41-41, a tie predicting no winner. The raw score in those games actually gave Denver and SD the nod, both lost.

Tonight I have Green Bay winning 24-23, which calls GB to win and triggers an ATS bet on the Giants as low as +4.5 (+4 would be no bet, but the line is 7 so an ATS bet is triggered for the Giants).

I know much of this is after the fact, but I thought I'd share. I doubt any week performs as well as this week. The fact that week 5 performs so well, the week at which market moving money starts to enter the market, is a testament to the forecasting.

Last year, week 5 was also the best performing, but not quite to this scale.

Wouldn't that be something if GB wins and doesn't cover.

I currently have a parlay with Raiders -3 and the Giants +7 online, with the Raider play a push.

[KVB]

I should mention that against the totals my forecasts triggered bets in 7 games, the record was 2-5. Zona/SF and Chi/Indy were the only cooperating games, both OVERs.

My forecast against the totals were weaker last year in week 5 as well.

In the SD/Oakland game I had 41-41, that's 82 points but an OVER is not triggered with a 51 or more point line, but it is noted. That game went over the total.

I really should have gone over this info at an earlier time.

So if the Giants were to cover the spread tonight my forecasts would be 10-0 against the opening spread.

Let's just say I find that result very hard to believe...look for the Packers to win by the TD, or maybe more.

Also, for Monday night I have Carolina winning 41-23, triggering the favorite and the OVER. Cam Newton is an issue there and I wouldn't be surprised to see Tampa Bay do well.

[KVB]

I picked up Green Bay -7 (+106) over the Giants.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

[KVB]

Yeah, I bit on Packers -125 second half. I wouldn't be surprised if it pushes.

[KVB]

...So if the Giants were to cover the spread tonight my forecasts would be 10-0 against the opening spread.

Let's just say I find that result very hard to believe...look for the Packers to win by the TD, or maybe more...

As far as posting undocumented results, especially such extreme ones, I am usually against it. I've done it before, to make a similar point as tonight.

It wasn't about the non posted forecasts, it was about the night game and the prediction I quoted above. The last thing I'm trying to do is over hype those forecasts, this was just week 5, that's all. Those forecasts can be negative for tough stretches when taken as a whole...they require patience.

Pushing the 7 spread was obviously no surprise and the Giants failed against the 6.5 opener...again no surprise.

It should be noted that +7.5 was also out there for some time, but 7 was the main line, most of the time.

Now as far as the forecasts against the money line, that prediction of Carolina to win could be in trouble tomorrow night.



The mad drummer...

[KVB]

...Frustrating to not have a bunch of plays to share right now but that's way it goes sometimes...patience is a virtue...

So why write this on a day I say there are 10 bets triggered against the spread, on week 5 nonetheless?

It's because other metrics I use help determine the success of those plays and they were giving mixed signals, making it impossible to tell with decent probability what's where.

The markets have a way of behaving like that and is likely one reason for the success of the forecasts. It's hard to get everything accounted for sometimes.

Sure week 5 is week 5, but I try to think out loud here in a more targeted, narrow fashion. I don't post everything I play, but I try to put forth winners.

My roll is separated into different strategies, with the largest part acting more like a regularly trading mutual fund where some losers are hopefully eliminated, and other parts offering more of the market reads and dynamic plays where winners that the forecasts won't otherwise find may show themselves. All use probability and often the market payouts don't cooperate...and that's a struggle.

I hope there is profit in both strategies as I take advantage of different handicapping techniques.

I felt I needed to explain a little.

[KVB]

This morning I offer a CFL play.

I have Montreal, the 3 point Underdog, winning outright 28-27 over Edmonton. That's 55 points but the line is 51.5.

I am neither picking Montreal or the OVER. Montreal may be a good play but I see market moving bettors once again sidelined on the total here or taking the OVER. There are some unsophisticated methodologies seeking the UNDER and we see a decent split.

Some metrics indicate the OVER prediction to fail and I think we see a surprise early UNDER, paying some groups on this split line.

I have UNDER 52 and 51.5 at various prices for Edmonton vs. Montreal.

Good Luck.

[PerfectGrape]

wow mtl been stinking it up

spielberg hooking up with BABA

oracle got cheaper, gonna pop em soon

gonna roll in a bentley one day and have my own company

[KVB]

...I have UNDER 52 and 51.5 at various prices for Edmonton vs. Montreal...

I clearly read that wrong. The first clue was the 4 point first quarter.

[KVB]

[KVB]

[KVB]

[KVB]

It feels a bit like the Tampa victory is out of the bag. Regardless, I'm taking Tampa Bay +201 and +6 (-110) over Carolina.

I have the Giants winning by 2 runs in a 5.5 run game. Basically Giants and UNDER are triggered at these values.

So, naturally, I bought the Chicago Cubs +101 over the Giants.

I think we have the Giants misrepresented in each forecast in this series.
It's playoff time...lol.

[stevenash]

Fuk, the NFL is hiding an upset.

The bait is Houston to beat Minnesota. I think it's not the upset and that it may look like Houston today, until it's not them...a potential live bet.

So who is it? It could be Cleveland over NE, the Jets over Pittsburgh, or even just plain Chicago over Indy this morning. I have more questions than answers as the market wants us to gamble.

Any given Sunday.

I'm looking at Cleveland +10 points and watching the games live if I can this morning. I put some pretty solid market reads in here yesterday and may have to see this market start up to read it. Perhaps some more information this afternoon or evening.

Frustrating to not have a bunch of plays to share right now but that's way it goes sometimes...patience is a virtue.

Good one, John Popper so underrated.

[KVB]

I put Tampa Bay +5.5 in the Smoke em contest, that hook could be a killer.

With all these losers I've been putting in Fly Me I feel a bit like this chick, who knows so much about running in the snow...

[stevenash]