[El Sol]

Live tournament $150 + $10 weekly $15,000 guaranteed at a local card room, top 18 paid, blinds at 1000 - 2000, 100 antes. field (roughly 120 playes, 40 left) 30% solid regulars 70% weekend want-a-be's.

-1st place $5200 - 18th place $220

-40 players left, 9 handed table, average stack size at table 38,000.

-Table skill level is average to good, often the table calls around but passive action is off-set by a seemingly random all-in push by that stereotypical aggressive type.

-Your stack 4,500.

-You've played solid poker and kept a low profile and are somewhat new at a table that has been together for awhile, now you are anxiously but quietly waiting for a hand to double up with.

- you are UTG+1, UTG folds, pot is 3,900, you open up 55.

So, what do you do?

Push or fold...and why?

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How the table reacts is a complete mystery but the likely scenarios you need to consider are listed here if you decide to push:

+ Someone behind you pushes, isolates
- and/or someone behind him pushes or calls

+ majority of the table smooth calls.

+ one or more smooth calls, than someone late pushes to isolate.

+ everyone folds.

+ only BB calls,
-or SB and BB call

[daneblazer]

The pot is the size of your stack and you are about to get blinded out. Push and pray with almost any two cards. If not now with any two, then push your next hand.

[lunchbawks]

Push with any pair, you only have 2.5 BB left, why even think about it?

Im pushin any 2 in that situation unless im on the bubble with a few hands left before im the BB

[mrmarket]

2.5 BB push you at least get fold equity and you have to call with any 2 in BB anyway. 55 is better than random holding.

[Shaudius]

I have to agree, you're so short stacked I have to wonder why you haven't been all in before now, waiting for a spot, that's way too few big blinds unless you're just waiting around to min cash.

[FuzzyDunlop]

If you're UTG you literally get your 2 bets in with at least any T.

[lolbear]

-Table skill level is average to good, often the table calls around but passive action is off-set by a seemingly random all-in push by that stereotypical aggressive type.

I'm sorry, but that's not average to good.

and instead of analyzing potential of the list of things that can happen once you shove, it's more useful if you analyze your plan if you fold. folding does have merit, if your pocket pair is 22 or 33, imho, because you have zero fold equity (unless your table is that bad). 44 and 55 i think are borderline if you have a plan in mind, that is, you will not fold when the big blind gets to you and you are willing to shove with random two. people might say then well might as well do that with 55, much better than a random hand. well true, but in a few hands when BB hits you have a tough decision to make again with a relatively short stack. so i think if you have that mindset, you have to ask yourself how much better is 55 vs a random hand to shove in the big blind, latter having a benefit of not having to worry about having another tough decision coming up right away. is that benefit worth it? imo it's closer than what a lot of players give credit for, and it's at least worth considering. i think considering these factors (not necessarily taking the alternative approach) separates an okay tourney player from a good player, because lets face it, the rest of the tourney strategies aren't that crazy to learn.

[deadphish]

Push with any pair, you only have 2.5 BB left, why even think about it?

Im pushin any 2 in that situation unless im on the bubble with a few hands left before im the BB

agreed