[TheMoneyShot]

Originally posted on 08/29/2023:

Shot, I like it. Good stuff.

Yes, I think the NFL has become so counter-intuitive. People think about these teams with clairvoyance. When they're too high on a team, that team is being overbet.

And when I say Over-bet, I'm only talking 2.5 pts or so. It's a small margin game.

Start with two lists:
1) Who the public sees as red-hot?
2) Who the public won't touch with a ten-foot pole?

Some random thoughts...and these are just MY opinions:
*Think about YOUR team, the Lions. I haven't seen this much Lion optimism since the Alex Karras days.
...They're ripe, and if they win at KC, they'll be EXTREMELY ripe.

*Speaking of KC, defending World champs. They were very fortunate to win the L2 games in the playoffs.
...If they start off 2-0 SU/ATS, they're ripe. KC is more vulnerable than people think. Specifically, I see Mahomes/Kelce as being injury concerns.

*Want a team who might be sneaky good? What about Tampa Bay?
...Last year, the QB practiced whenever he wanted. He literally took Personal Leave to hammer out his divorce.

*I mentioned the Jaguars. They're ripe.
...Shot, I'm telling you. I have security guards telling me that the Jags are going to the AFC Final.

*I mentioned the Panthers. The scent of the rose may already be coming off.
...If Bryce Young becomes an All-Pro, I'll tip my cap. QBs of that size don't become stars, wait for the first big hit.

*Packers: probably under-rated.
...Should they be Dogs in Chicago versus this Bear defense? Rodgers was regressing, the QB change won't be a massive downgrade.

*Patriots: might be underrated.
...If Belichick didn't like this team, he could have just retired. Patriots are an after-thought right now. They were unlucky in close games last year, probably live to cover vs Eagles in Week One.

Thanks for your input Chucky. I'm really excited for Jacksonville out of any team.... I think they have a young talented team over there... great coach too. I don't quite understand the hype with Detroit over in my neck of the woods. I think they said this is the first time EVER in the history of Ford Field... that ALL Home games are completely sold out before the start of Week 1. It's never happened before. Now mind you... has nothing to do with a booming economy... lol it just means Red Wings, Tigers, Pistons.. SUCK. lol Dan Campbell still needs to prove himself... beating GB at GB means nothing.... The game that stuck out last year... was Lions At New England... and New England smoked them on defense every 4th down play. Campbell needs to stop thinking this is a video game... and start punting the ball more.

As always... best wishes this year Chucky... hope you win big!