[ChuckyTheGoat]

Post any thoughts in here. Thanks.

Will append any picks I make to my Main pick thread.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Huge game this week: 4/10 MINN @Denver.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* MINN Twolves to win the WESTERN Conf (9.42). 1 to win 8.42.

...Huge game in Denver. The Division pretty much tilts on that game:
*If Minn wins that game, their win% goes way up. I'd rate them as at least 25% if they lock up the 1-seed.
*And I still think they can win the West w/o the 1-seed. I don't view Denver as hungry after last season.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* MINN Twolves to win the WESTERN Conf (9.42). 1 to win 8.42.

...Huge game in Denver. The Division pretty much tilts on that game:
*If Minn wins that game, their win% goes way up. I'd rate them as at least 25% if they lock up the 1-seed.
*And I still think they can win the West w/o the 1-seed. I don't view Denver as hungry after last season.

One more ticket to win the West:

1* Dallas Mavericks to win the Western CONF (12.21). 1 to win 11.21.
...This is largely tied to the Clipper injuries. If the Clips go into the playoffs banged up, I give the Mavs every chance to win that 4/5 series.

[johnnyvegas13]

Yes Chuck wolves a sharp play

mavs have no center or inside presence

u want a deep sleeper in the west dubs or lakers

i kinda doubt it tho since they r 9 and 10

[veriableodds]

Looked at games today found a few value's.
memphis/+18.5=6.5 pov(points of value)
toronto/+11.5=3.5
san antonio/+17/=10
clippers/+9.5/=5.5
my take the good teams are not really playing for anything, why risk injury.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Yes Chuck wolves a sharp play

mavs have no center or inside presence

u want a deep sleeper in the west dubs or lakers

i kinda doubt it tho since they r 9 and 10

Thx, John. GL.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Looked at games today found a few value's.
memphis/+18.5=6.5 pov(points of value)
toronto/+11.5=3.5
san antonio/+17/=10
clippers/+9.5/=5.5
my take the good teams are not really playing for anything, why risk injury.

Could be, veri. GL.

I haven't gotten a a feel for the mangy dogs. I will say that the Spur line shocked me. Wemby is getting 5 blocks some nites, guy is dominating games.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Yes Chuck wolves a sharp play

mavs have no center or inside presence

u want a deep sleeper in the west dubs or lakers

i kinda doubt it tho since they r 9 and 10

Thx, John. Respect your opinion.

It's the playoffs. You never know.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Looked at games today found a few value's.
memphis/+18.5=6.5 pov(points of value)
toronto/+11.5=3.5
san antonio/+17/=10
clippers/+9.5/=5.5
my take the good teams are not really playing for anything, why risk injury.

Veri, I agree with your logic. The playoff teams are really tuning up for those games. They don't need to win by 20 tonite.

I've been cold as ice. Can't play rated games 2nite. My un-rated Opinions:
*Milw +2
*Dallas -2.5
*Minn +7

[lakerboy]

Twolves have no pedigree. Good luck

[johnnyvegas13]

If suns somehow lose tonight it could open door for lakers 8 seed

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thx to Veri and Johnny. Appreciate the discussion, men.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1) Twolves go down. Not gonna lie. Now looks like a daunting task, as the West goes thru Denver.
...How does someone solve Jokic?
...Still like my chances. In a strange way, this eliminates DALL potentially playing MINN in the Western Semi-Finals.

2) Dallas now likely to be the 5-seed. I'm convinced they can beat the Clips.
...What sort of team will the Clips field? Will any guys still be banged up?

Sunk cost. Think both have potential.

[veriableodds]

Looked at games today found a few value's.
memphis/+18.5=6.5 pov(points of value)
toronto/+11.5=3.5
san antonio/+17/=10
clippers/+9.5/=5.5
my take the good teams are not really playing for anything, why risk injury.

Split rotten egg juice. Veri keep opinions to self.

[lakerboy]

Twolves have no pedigree. Good luck

Exhibit A
Last night

They get excited winning vs vs Washington. This team just lost to Toronto at home.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Split rotten egg juice. Veri keep opinions to self.

No, man. I appreciate your opinions.

I actually agree with what you're saying. Late-season games are not always one-sided. Different motivations.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

You could be right, Laker. But people could have said the same thing about DENVER going into last year.

I actually think that kept Denver's odds DOWN. When they were clearly the best team in the West.

That loss last nite has to put a damper on MINN. How does Gobert defend Jokic? If Jokic pulls him out of the paint, you lose a great rim-protector.

[lakerboy]

You could be right, Laker. But people could have said the same thing about DENVER going into last year.

I actually think that kept Denver's odds DOWN. When they were clearly the best team in the West.

That loss last nite has to put a damper on MINN. How does Gobert defend Jokic? If Jokic pulls him out of the paint, you lose a great rim-protector.

Denver went to the conference finals already one time before though right? They were missing Murray for along time after. Minnesota needs to learn a few lessons still.

No one likes the Clippers?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Denver went to the conference finals already one time before though right? They were missing Murray for along time after. Minnesota needs to learn a few lessons still.

No one likes the Clippers?

Laker, I think this playoffs is great for divergent opinions. I think it's very tough. My thoughts:

1) I don't think Denver will be as focused as last year. Maybe they prove me wrong.

2) Clippers have a lot of big names. I think them securing HCA over Dallas is significant.

3) I chimed in with the two teams I like: Min/Dall. But I've been wrong 100x in the L30 days.

...IMHO, OKC/NewOrl are at least a year away.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

https://www.basketball-reference.com...standings.html

*Bucks get two big wins. Look to be the 2-seed. They looked better in L2 games.

*Knicks have won some games. Have now flipped ORL.

*PHI currently a 7-seed. Considering the games Embiid missed, Sixers are going to be so much lower than expected.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I like the play-in. But the Bulls/Hawks are going to be some of the scrubbiest playoff teams in memory.

That said, I think they're live. Could see them being live dogs in the play-in games.

Take note about how much lighter the Eastern bubble was compared to the Western bubble.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Not saying that I'm playing this. But BOSTOn 1.53 to win the East might be value.

Who is going to beat them in 7 games? Knicks could challenge them, but hard to see winning 4 of 7.

BOS bench has been very good. So, they're not in danger of tilting on one injury.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* BOSTON: to Win the Eastern Conf (1.54). 2 to win 1.08.

...This is going to look square. Backing the Favorite. Will get > +50% return if they win.
...Feel like the balance was tilted to the West. A team like PHX would probably be the 2-seed if they played in the East.
...The gap from Boston to anyone else in the East is massive. Built a big lead and coasted the L6 weeks.
...Deep roster. Their bench played great. Team is not subject to injury risk of any one guy going down.
...I like PHI lining up with the Knicks. Given the Giannis injury, I can't fathom anyone challenging Boston other than the Phi/NYK winner.
...And if the Eastern Finals = Bos vs Phi/NYK, Boston would be > 80% to win a 7-game series.

[budwiser]

yeah just had a conversation about Boston winning the East. I had pretty much the same arguments you had. Great price and they've been dominating.

-180 looks enticing, or what you had 2 to win 1.08

But they have as indicated a weakness at center. Porzingis is not going to stop Giannis or Embiid. He doesn't have the strength.

When they shoot the 3 they're unbeatable. But when they aren't anybody can beat them. Tatum has in the past disappeared at crucial moments in the playoffs, and Brown has a way of continually shooting the ball when he's shooting bricks.

I'm not saying it won't happen, thought about it myself, but pass.

[budwiser]

Denver went to the conference finals already one time before though right? They were missing Murray for along time after. Minnesota needs to learn a few lessons still.

No one likes the Clippers?

I liked the Clippers until I heard the news about Kawhi. More mystery knee issues. It drives you crazy. We're back in the exact situation as the last 2 years, is he playing, if he plays can he play all game, will he be effective.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

MIA - Butler ruled out. Another reason to like BOSTON.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

One more ticket to win the West:

1* Dallas Mavericks to win the Western CONF (12.21). 1 to win 11.21.
...This is largely tied to the Clipper injuries. If the Clips go into the playoffs banged up, I give the Mavs every chance to win that 4/5 series.

Mavs/Twolves now a good bit shorter than those prices.

I do think the reaction to MINN's sweep is a bit much. DENVER only -180 to win that series.

[Madison]

Twolves have no pedigree. Good luck

Unfortunately this can be very true this time of year. I realize I'm old and tainted by past histories but the ref's will come in to play here at some point to accommodate tv/markets.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Unfortunately this can be very true this time of year. I realize I'm old and tainted by past histories but the ref's will come in to play here at some point to accommodate tv/markets.

Could be. I'd counter that Edwards is now on commercials. One of the top 5 faces in the league.

The one that someone needs to investigate is the 0-2 Homer. I'm convinced that the refs are instructed to "Gift-wrap the 1st Half to the Homer. Let the 2nd half play out honestly."
...Think about how much $$ the NBA loses for each game that's not played. 5-game MIN in most series.

[Madison]

.Think about how much $$ the NBA loses for each game that's not played.

This my friend! All about the $$$

[ChuckyTheGoat]

.Think about how much $$ the NBA loses for each game that's not played.

This my friend! All about the $$$

For sure. Go back to the SAC/Lak game from many years ago.

The NBA couldn't have the Lakers go out in 6. The FT disparity was like 8/1. Many phantom fouls, NBA couldn't forego the revenue of a Game 7.

[johnnyvegas13]

For sure. Go back to the SAC/Lak game from many years ago.

The NBA couldn't have the Lakers go out in 6. The FT disparity was like 8/1. Many phantom fouls, NBA couldn't forego the revenue of a Game 7.

Chuck this is like half of nba playoffs series

get ready starting next round and remember this

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chuck this is like half of nba playoffs series

get ready starting next round and remember this

John, that one jumped off the page. I do think it happens.

DAL/Clip, does the NBA need this one to go SEVEN? Clips could win tonite, especially if Gafford is dinged up.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Also, on THIS ROUND:

*The NBA is doing much much better by Phi/NYK and Mil/Ind going to 6+ games.