[atthehalf]

The K's lines have been added to the big board

[atthehalf]

Mental note to self. Any time that I see one of my aces miss a day or have a start pushed back I am going to immediately replace him with a bat before they start again. While most here made money off of the Brews late game heroics and had not a care in the world how they won I got BLASTED in my fantasy league with Freddy Peralta yesterday and I actually saw something wrong...and still went with my ace.

So for those interested I replaced Peralta with Rafael Devers and yes I am using him today

Rot.#970 Rafael Devers (Red Sox) OVER 1.5 bases +104

[atthehalf]

Luzardo is OUT for the Fish and being replaced with Anthony Maldonado who is right handed. You should get your money back as the wager is CANCELLED.

[atthehalf]

Taking a flyer on

Rot.#960 Tigers-1.5 +165 RL Olson 3 UNITS CRUMBS PLAY OF THE DAY

[atthehalf]

The Tigers have a worse winning percentage an 0-3 pitcher with a worse ERA favored over guy with a 3-1 record accompanied by a strong 2.03 ERA and a team with a fantastic record. It's everything you want in sports moves

[atthehalf]

Well at least it wasn't a nail biter loss LOL!

[atthehalf]

Thank you O'Neill for that blast only problem was Devers was out on a fielders choice!

[atthehalf]

Ah darn-Devers got K'd up in the 6th-only one more shot! The dividends would be tremendous should he get on base one more time for the swap out with Peralta!

[atthehalf]

79-72-3 +37.10 UNITS

Today

Rot.#930 Sailors-1.5 +140 RL Kirby#2
Rot.#901 Cardinals-125 Gray#3
Rot.#912 Tigers-107 ML Mize
Rot.#904 Fish-1.5 +160 RL Cabrera#6 2 UNITS
Rot.#906 Fathers-113 ML Cease#5
Rot.#927 Guardians+162 ML Bibbee#18 2 UNITS CRUMBS PLAY OF THE DAY
Rot.#909 A's/Orioles OVER 4.5 -105 Sears#22/Irvin#23
Rot.#921 Cubs/Red Sox OVER 4.5 -115 FF Brown#21/Winckowski#29
Rot.#922 Rafael Devers Red Sox) OVER 1.5 BASES -116 2 UNITS
Rot.#903 Nats/Fish UNDER 4 FF +105 Parker#7/Cabrera#6
Rot.#923 Astronauts/Rox OVER 16 -105 2 UNITS
Rot.#919 Red Leggins-1.5 +155 RL Greene#17

[atthehalf]

The Cubs are swapping out Brown for another pitcher so I am passing on Rot.#921 Cubs/Reed Sox OVER FF as a heads up

[atthehalf]

Charlie Morton is a gas can and I have him ranked at #24 and Bibbee at #18 so I gave it a go to see if I can get some tremendous crumbs-even if it means going up against the mighty Braves.

Cabrera's K rates are up and I have him ranked at #6 facing Parker#7 so I am also throwing down on the

Rot.#903 Nats/Fish UNDER 4 FF +105

[atthehalf]

With the pitcher change for the Cubs Devers listing of bases hasn't been listed yet so be patient

[atthehalf]

Ok so Ben Brown is grudgingly back in effect for the Cubs today so feel free to blast away on

Rot.#921 Cubs/Red Sox OVER 4.5 -115 FF Brown#21/Winckowski#29

Also

Rot.#922 Rafael Devers Red Sox) OVER 1.5 BASES -116 2 UNITS

[atthehalf]

Look-one thing that you have to wrap your head around is the cold fact that everyone who makes moves on MLB every day will inevitably end up with a record that is around .500. With relievers, errors, managerial decisions, spiteful umpires and anxious batters you will take lumps. The only way to survive in MLB moves are to know when to pull the trigger and get your crumbs up and study the hell out of your starters and their bat vs pitch. It's a game of adjustments. So why would you cheat yourself by not going all in on understanding your starters? Know who is representing your money so that you can take advantage of an opportunity when a lesser talented arm is the favorite and you can make plus money as a result. Don't do that.

[atthehalf]

It's Quantrill. it's the Astronauts. This game is being played in a park WORSE THAN COORS FIELD (Mexico City)..

Rot.#923 Astronauts/Rox OVER 16 -105 2 UNITS

[atthehalf]

Ok so I have had too much time on my hands. I do see an underdog that has a higher ranking than the favorite. Hunter Greene checks in at #17 and Michael Lorenzen at #19. Lorenzen is a middling pitcher to be sure and may have problems with Elly today-and that may occur with runners on. Greene is a classic cherry bomb. He can either give you an excellent performance or detonate in your face. I don't mind risking a unit with the guy more likely to give me the 6 frames that I am looking for. The RL read says it all going from Cincy-180 to Cincy-210 and now Cincy-1.5 +155 RL on some books. You know the drill. Go for the CRUMBS. I will add it to the big board

Rot.#919 Red Leggins-1.5 +155 RL Greene

[atthehalf]

Remember that point about managerial decisions factoring in to MLB betting? So Pablo Reyes pinch hits for Devers and ends possibility of getting that golden 0.5 base that I needed from him after his single earlier on. What a pisser!

[atthehalf]

86-76-4 +40.84 UNITS

Today

Rot.#961 Royals/Tigers UNDER 4 -110 FF Skubal#1/Wacha#7
Rot.#965 Twins/Halos UNDER 4 +105 Lopez#2/Detmers#11
Rot.#955 Buccos+101 Jones#3 UNITS CRUMBS PLAY OF THE DAY
Rot.#978 Sailors-136 Gilbert#4
Rot.#970 Jays-1.5 +165 RL Gausman#6
Rot.#971 Bombers-132 ML Stroman#9
Rot.#980 Red Sox-1.5 +165 RL Houck#10 3 UNITS
Rot.#953 Cardinals//Metropolitans OVER 4.5 FF-110 Quintana#18/Lynn (DNS)
Rot.#952 Fish-1.5 +150 RL Weathers#13
Rot.#960 Albert Suarez (Orioles) OVER 4.5 K's -110
Rot.#973 Red Leggins/Wanderers OVER 4.5 FF -115 Abbott#25/Dunning#20
Rot.#967 Guardians/Braves OVER 5 FF -110 Lively(DNS)/Elder (DNS)
Rot.#951 Nats Team Total OVER 4 +110

[atthehalf]

I will add in Albert Suarez K's number once it's available for me to make a move on

[atthehalf]

Dude in my message box asked me how did I come to take the Guardians straight up against the Braves as such a big underdog last night LOL!

[atthehalf]

fantasy island stuff here. may want to pay attention if you like money

Rafael Devers has been on the cusp each day with at least one hit, yet not getting an extra base or a walk. I am keeping him rostered on my fantasy squad and deciding to not list him again here on this thread. Edward Cabrera of the Fish got dropped by many in the league after yesterday's less than stellar performance. Now is the time to grab him. although his ERA went up to 5.28 his strikes minus ideal contact is a sterling 54.3% to go along with 31.9% K's and 9% walks batters faced numbers. And get this-his expected ERA is 3.42! There's oodles of value there!

The stash list is for redraft leagues and does not consider impact beyond 2024, and only current minor leaguers who are expected to make a impact this season are to be included. This only for 12 team leagues with standard categories. Anyway saying all that to say that I stashed the following

Paul Skenes Buccos
Christian Scott, Metropolitans
Robert Gasser, Brews
Jackson Jobe, Tigers
Cade Povich, Orioles
Max Meyer, Fish
Cade Horton, Cubs
AJ Smith-Shawver, Braves
Jack Leiter, Wanderers
Richard Fitts, Red Sox

[atthehalf]

Seriously hoping that the men don't give Albert Suarez a high amount of K's to make and take into consideration that he is, by definition, a relief pitcher making a spot start in what may be a complete bullpen game for the men wearing orange. I would be more than happy to take him owing only 3.5 or 4 k's or so

[atthehalf]

Albert Suarez (Orioles) over 4.5 K's -110 has been added to the big board

[atthehalf]

It almost slipped my mind but no!

Rot.#951 Nats Team Total OVER 4 +110

just added it to the big board

[atthehalf]

Any time that I see the Nats facing a lefty I will blast away on their team total to go over. Little known secret is that they had the best average vs left last season and it is continuing on into this season as well

[atthehalf]

Not that I am making a move on it...I feel badly for the man who bets the Braves today with that DNS arm representing your money. You either take the Guardians or leave that one alone

[Yensel]

Thanks for all of your advice. If the marlins - 1.5 is a play, and the Nationals team total is going over, does it seem like the game is likely to go over 8.5?

[Sneakybeef]

Great thread man. Tailing all the way keep it up!

[atthehalf]

While going through one of those days where MLB betting will bring you inevitably back to the .500 mark like I always speak on, let's talk about Elly De La Cruz. He's slashing .283/.400/.587 with 15.5% walk rate (95th percentile). What's been really impressive this year are his swing decisions. He's seeing fewer pitches in the zone to hit and he's not chasing pitches nearly as often as he was last year. De La Cruz's O-Swing% in 2023 was 34.0% and this year it's dropped to 28.9%. How good has his decision making been?

De La Cruz's quality of contact is also among the best in baseball. His 50.9% hard hit rate is in the 87th percentile, while his 17.5% barrel rate is in the 95th percentile. He's quickly becoming one of my favorite players to watch

[atthehalf]

Well let's root the Red Sox home to salvage some semblance of having put in al of the hard work in my fantasy rostering. 5-7 so far today with 3 UNITS in the air still! Egads!

[atthehalf]

BTW Wicks got swapped out for the Cubs so with me taking the RL there will be no refund. A refund (scratch) can only occur if the ML was bet. I'm out on a limb! I love it! And as for Devers-he is listed at -140 for over 1.5 bases so I won't be making a move on him in this format. If anyone has paid close attention I refuse to pay ANYTHING over -135 in juice.

I prefer to lick my wounds and hunt tomorrow. You and everyone else-myself included, will end up with around a .500 record doing this each day in this format. So get comfortable taking lumps and celebrating equally. Appreciate the joy and pain

[atthehalf]

Thanks for all of your advice. If the marlins - 1.5 is a play, and the Nationals team total is going over, does it seem like the game is likely to go over 8.5?

You were right!

[atthehalf]

Great thread man. Tailing all the way keep it up!

Then let's go Red Sox! I am a glutton for punishment!

[atthehalf]

I'm only down -3.45 UNITS today so far. Sure would be nice to make this into an improbable +1.5 UNIT day with a nice Red Sox win by more than 2 runs.

Hayden Wesneski of the Cubs is a spot starter/reliever who has good numbers...with only 6 innings so far this season with a left on base look of 100% and 58.8% of his recorded outs are ground balls to go along with 0 dingers and 0 flyball outs, but his average pitch level value is sitting at 5.45 meaning that he has gotten by on some lucky gloves.

Anyway Kolton Wong is the ONLY Red Sox starter who didn't record a hit yesterday in the 17-0 shellacking of the Cubs. The Cubs were forced to use 4 of their relievers so it will get interesting the later on it gets on their side. Houck is a stud and I have him ranked as #10 which is solid.

Let's see how it goes

[atthehalf]

91-84-4 +34.39 UNITS

I got hammered yesterday and then had to drive back to Tampa from Georgia LOL!

Ok for today

Rot.#913 Twins/Pale Hose UNDER 3.5 +100 FF Ryan#1/Crochet#7
Rot.#921 Braves-1.5 +120 Fried#2
Rot.#919 Blunts-1.5 +115 RL Sanchez#3
Rot.#910 Orioles-115 Rodriguez#4
Rot.#917 Rays+102 Pepiot#5 5 UNITS CRUMBS PLAY OF THE DAY
Rot.#901 Nats Team Total OVER 3.5 -115
Rot.#907 Red Leggins-105 Lodolo#9
Rot.#915 Cardinals/Tigers OVER 4.5 FF -110 Matz#14/Maeda#12
Rot.#917 Rays-1.5 +160 RL 2 UNITS