1. #1
    Al Masters
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    Wisconsin vs New Mexico St

    New Mexico St team total is 3.5

    Can they get a flukey TD?

    Can they make it to the Wisconsin 35 twice for 2 field goals?

    lowest Team total Iíve ever seen.. canít recall a lower one.

    Tempting!

  2. #2
    Easy-Rider 66
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    yeah unreal total. maybe a defensive score is in the cards?

  3. #3
    Al Masters
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    Quote Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66 View Post
    yeah unreal total. maybe a defensive score is in the cards?
    I don’t see a half time total.. what can it possibly be? Lol

    may be better off playing a 1st half total if they issue one.

  4. #4
    Easy-Rider 66
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    Quote Originally Posted by Al Masters View Post
    I don’t see a half time total.. what can it possibly be? Lol

    may be better off playing a 1st half total if they issue one.
    yeah Maybe AL. I guess NM ST. has no offense. I assume the game is in Madison?

  5. #5
    Al Masters
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    Both big Yeses.

  6. #6
    Easy-Rider 66
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    Quote Originally Posted by Al Masters View Post
    Both big Yeses.

  7. #7
    pimike
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    This is unbelievable

  8. #8
    jjgold
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    Shut out

    Total mismatch

  9. #9
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Good one, Al. Will be watching w/ bated breath.

    Honestly, it will probably take a mistake. And Merz can make plenty of those.

  10. #10
    pologq
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    i would take a chance. def worth it.

  11. #11
    19th Hole
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    Quote Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66 View Post
    yeah Maybe AL. I guess NM ST. has no offense. I assume the game is in Madison?

    ~~

    Rarely would a POWER FIVE Conference Team travel to a lesser conference school.
    It looks like Jerry Kill's Aggies are in for a long afternoon at Camp Randall.
    The is not his Golden Gopher teams of old.
    Badgers are allowing only 2.3 yards per carry.
    The Aggies are completing a paltry 42% of their passes.

    So it looks like NM St isn't going to get it done offensively.

    If order for the Aggies to break the posted team total we need a pick-six or a defensive scoop and score.

    Not out of the realm of possibility but the linebackers or deep backs will have to get the job done as the Aggies' offensive and defensive lines are pathetic.

    As a Badger alum and fan I know Wisco's hapless QB Mertz is very capable of giving the
    New Mexico St. Team Total over backers a much-needed score--a defensive TD.

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  12. #12
    DrunkHorseplayer
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    If your best chance of winning is a fluke, you shouldn't make the bet. They played at Minny two weeks ago and were blanked 38-0, looks like under if anything.

  13. #13
    biggie12
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    I like it AL will try it out

  14. #14
    Mac4Lyfe
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    They'll probably score at least 10 points now.
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  15. #15
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrunkHorseplayer View Post
    If your best chance of winning is a fluke, you shouldn't make the bet....

  16. #16
    KVB
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    Yeah this is crazy. Here's what I have...

    My stacking percentages Forecast shows Wisconsin winning the game with 41 or 42 points to N Mexico State's 0 or 3 points, all with equal (equal enough) probablilty.

    This Forecast sees no scenario on the side of the +37.5.

    If forced to collapse to one scenario, ignoring margin of error, I would predict 42-3 here.

    From what I can tell, early bets have been towards the UNDER for the 3.5 TT.

    My non-predictive public gauge shows Wisonsin winning 38-3.

    Full discolsure...

    The Stacking percentages forecast has a record of 55-43-2 against the opening spread and 51-45-4 against the closing spread, tracked with as little as .5 point discrepency against the line.
    When it comes to the Totals the Forecast is 46-52-2 against the Opening Total and 48-49-3 against the closing Total.

  17. #17
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by pologq View Post
    i would take a chance. def worth it.
    Is that what the model says?

  18. #18
    pavyracer
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    Everyone is running scenarios with 2 FG kicked to cover this bet but noone is thinking they can score 2 safeties? Why?
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  19. #19
    actiondan
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    In Al we trust

  20. #20
    Mac4Lyfe
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Everyone is running scenarios with 2 FG kicked to cover this bet but noone is thinking they can score 2 safeties? Why?
    That would require New Mexico St. to have a defense worth a shit... They don't. Better chance of a fluke, wide open receiver on a blown coverage IMO.
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  21. #21
    Mike78
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    Have you thought about placing a live bet on this? With New Mexico's State offensive ineptness, the team total line might drop to 3 or under at some point. So, a field goal would give you a push or win, and you wouldn't have to worry about them scoring a TD or two FGs.

  22. #22
    Al Masters
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike78 View Post
    Have you thought about placing a live bet on this? With New Mexico's State offensive ineptness, the team total line might drop to 3 or under at some point. So, a field goal would give you a push or win, and you wouldn't have to worry about them scoring a TD or two FGs.
    Where do you bet team totals after the game starts?

  23. #23
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Everyone is running scenarios with 2 FG kicked to cover this bet but noone is thinking they can score 2 safeties? Why?
    Notice I predict a score of 0 or 3.

    We literally rule out the possility of N Mex St scoring 2 or 4 points. Combined, under average circumstances against a league average opponent, etc, you would lucky to get 3 to 5 hundredths of a percent out of it, when capturing numbers.

    The limit there would already be about 6 hundredths of of a percent. That's the limit under average circumstances.

    But these aren't averge circumstances.

    Flukes can happen, but if your capping the game trying to include the possibilty of N Mexico St. getting 2 safeties OVER Wisky then it's even beyond your best chance being a fluke.

    Even if the there is a chance, it's not worth figuring in, whether analyzing the game mathematically or subjectively.

    Field goals and the chance of field goals are far more impactful and dwarf the safeties in probability.

  24. #24
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by Al Masters View Post
    Where do you bet team totals after the game starts?
    A number of LIVE platforms include team totals. Usually you have to click the game and open up all the possibilties.

    You can get LIVE team totals of Flor St. and L'ville going off right now at BM, BOL and Heritage, just to name three I'm looking at.

    There are even decent discrepencies and choices with better current deal vascillating between the books.
    Last edited by KVB; 09-16-22 at 06:57 PM. Reason: typo, force and wyoming haven't started

  25. #25
    TheMetsSuck
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    Ive watched every badgers game the past 15 years and I think itís a no play. This has shutout written all over it.,badgers will have possession like 50 minutes out of the 60 running the ball. 42-3 38-0 would not surprise me one bit. Itís a sharp line
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  26. #26
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    ...The Stacking percentages forecast has a record of 55-43-2 against the opening spread and 51-45-4 against the closing spread, tracked with as little as .5 point discrepency against the line.
    When it comes to the Totals the Forecast is 46-52-2 against the Opening Total and 48-49-3 against the closing Total.
    I suppose I should mention, again for full discosure, that those records are over the last 100 plays, in rotation order. That's the Forecast trying to predict every game.

    Those are just the recent 100 in the record.
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  27. #27
    trytrytry
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    easy over for that team total and cover as well.
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  28. #28
    pavyracer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Al Masters View Post
    Where do you bet team totals after the game starts?
    Betonline.

    This is for the game tonight right now:

    TEAM TOTAL - LOUISVILLE

    • OVER 34.5
      −120



    • UNDER 34.5


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  29. #29
    Al Masters
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    1st half TT for New Mexico State is .5 +150

    bookmakers are telling us they don’t expect NM ST to pass to 50yd line first half.

  30. #30
    tlk23
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    UL-Monroe is also O/U 3.5 vs. Alabama today.

  31. #31
    Otters27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Al Masters View Post
    1st half TT for New Mexico State is .5 +150

    bookmakers are telling us they don’t expect NM ST to pass to 50yd line first half.
    Have to get a fluke play

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