[svsooner]

I was thinking to try a live bet tonight on Phillies/Angels. Hopefully the starters start strong i.e.; 2 or so scoreless innings to drive the total lower, then hammer the new number knowing that both bullpens are dumpster fires.


Of course, if either/both starters get lit up early, this strategy is out of reach most likely.

Thoughts?


Also, if y'all have any best bets up your sleeve(s), always welcome to ideas...

[svsooner]

to continue the thought, assuming no score in the early innings, how do you big brains calculate probable runs/inning? I'm assuming there probably is some rough equation (whatever the books laying live numbers use).

Eflin got bailed out in the 1st. Also, the live total line dropped from 9.5 to 8.5 just from the top of the 1st. If it drops another run to 7.5, maybe worth a play.

Nevermind, HR by Schwarber will probably kill this experiment before it gets going...

[pavyracer]

It depends on your book limits. Not sure you can bet the same pre-game as live bet. I bet live bets on tennis when a big fav goes down 2 sets and I can get them at + odds but with hockey you may not get that chance if Tampa scores first. But if you think they will let a soft goal in early it's a good strategy if you don't plan to bet much.

[Headsterx]

I would pound that Tigers/Yankees game u4.5 (+142) in the 3rd 0-0.

[texhooper]

What you should have done is read the Phillies fire girardi thread and tailed my Phillies play lol

Looks like they scored a lot early on you though

[svsooner]

Thanks for the reply, but Silseth just gave up a 3 run HR, so this experiment is most likely over before it gets started. Only play I'm looking at right now is Angels TT over 2.5 (-139) only a matter of time the Eflin or the bullpen give that up, right?

[Booya711]

Jerkoff with broken glass pal

[stevenash]

Just saw this thread.

Reading into this game as it stands, Silseth got lit up and yanked.
Angels pen is both leaky and not many are available.

Hergot used 20 pitches in last night's game, Terpera 17 pitches, Ortega the same.
And Bradley used 14 pitches at the end.

I think whacky Joe Maddon stays with Barria for as long a he can, he really doesn't have many fresh arms.

You might want to consider live under wager if you can get the right number.

1) Barria can go multiple innings as he's what we call a true spot starter/long reliever.
2) Look at his recent performances, sharp. Disregard the first two games at the start of the season.

If you can get like a seven total in game live, I would go under that. Small.

Rk	Gcar	Gtm	Date	Tm		Opp	Rslt	Inngs	Dec	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	FIP	BF	Pit	Str	StL	StS	GB	FB	LD	PU
1	66	2	Apr 8	LAA		HOU	L,6-13	7-GF		2.2	3	2	2	0	3	2	6.75	10.65	11	41	27	8	3	1	7	3	0
2	67	7	Apr 14	LAA	@	TEX	L,5-10	5-GF(8)		4	4	2	1	0	2	0	4.05	5.55	17	55	39	8	4	7	8	6	0
3	68	10	Apr 17	LAA	@	TEX	W,8-3	8-GF		2	1	0	0	1	2	0	3.12	4.88	8	42	24	7	3	2	3	0	0
4	69	22	Apr 30	LAA	@	CHW	L,0-4	6-GF(8)		3	2	0	0	0	1	0	2.31	4.52	11	30	21	3	5	4	5	3	1
5	70	30	May 8	LAA		WSN	W,5-4	8-GF	W(1-0)	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	1.98	4.02	6	23	16	5	3	0	4	1	1
6	71	38	May 16	LAA	@	TEX	L,4-7	5-Jan		4.1	3	0	0	1	4	0	1.5	3.53	17	62	42	7	10	3	9	3	2
7	72	46	May 26	LAA		TOR	L,3-6	7-GF		3	1	1	1	2	5	1	1.71	3.91	12	53	34	9	9	3	2	0	0
8	73	49	May 29	LAA		TOR	L,10-11	6-Apr		2.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1.54	3.87	8	36	22	7	3	2	4	1	0
							6-Feb		W-L:1-0	23.1	14	5	4	5	20	3	1.54	3.87	90	342	66%	16%	12%	0.52		27%	6%

[KVB]

Just saw this.

Had no read on the Total there. I actually have Philly in an unposted play.

If the Angels had taken an early lead, I might have considered more Philly, but that's the best LIVE look I have for this game.

And that didn't happen.

Game got out of hand too. Ugly.

[chargers4222]

It depends on your book limits. Not sure you can bet the same pre-game as live bet. I bet live bets on tennis when a big fav goes down 2 sets and I can get them at + odds but with hockey you may not get that chance if Tampa scores first. But if you think they will let a soft goal in early it's a good strategy if you don't plan to bet much.

Oh you mean in the four or five matches per year where this happens since it's only possible in men's grand slam matches? That's your big strategy?

[pavyracer]

Oh you mean in the four or five matches per year where this happens since it's only possible in men's grand slam matches? That's your big strategy?

It's not a strategy. I don't live bet as the juice is outrageous. But when I rarely bet it has to be the right ciscumstances like in tennis or in soccer when I capped the under and 2 goals are scored within the first 10 minutes or when I cap the over and the score is 0-0 after 70 minutes.

[jjgold]

Paver the smarter of this crew

[KVB]

Paver the smarter of this crew

[Da Manster!]

Hi SvSooner,

I don't live bet, period...Never have, Never will...I just stick to what works for me...