Originally Posted by
False Start
The best was in the "early days of regulation" in New Jersey. I'm talking 2018 and early 2019.
I was the biggest bonus whore out there. Still am.
When NJ first went legal, almost every book allowed you to keep the stake of the free bet. If I remember correctly, DraftKings was the only one who didn't give stake back. Anyway, I remember only one book didn't give you the stake back.
The general public should NOT be confused by the ads on television. There is a HUGE difference between a "risk-free bet" (which isn't risk-free at all) and a deposit match. You always want/hope for a deposit match.
I couldn't believe the amount of misinformation out there (and on here) when Caesars' came out last summer with that huge "$5,000 risk free bet." People actually thought it was risk-free. No. Here's why:
You deposit $5000 into Caesars. You make a bet at the standard -110 odds:
Best case: You win your bet. You have just won $4,545.45. Done.
2nd worse case: You lose the $5000 risk-free bet. They give you a $5000 token which must be played on one game. You win that game at -110 odds. You now have $4,545.45 in your account. Total loss for going 1-1: -$454.55.
Worst case: You go 0-2. Lost $5000.
ALWAYS max out your bonus. If they offer up to $2000 bonus or match, deposit $2000. Don't deposit $300 or something like that. You are throwing away money.
Also, don't play odds worse than -110 or so with your free play. Do the math. If anything, your free play should be even money or a reasonable moneyline underdog which has a chance to hit.
Back to the Caesars example: it's no different if they offered me a $100,000 "risk free bet." Yes, it's a 2nd chance, but you cannot (should not, actually) reverse your free bet (2nd bet) at another book because if you lose at the other book, you would be down $100,000 at that other book, and still down -$9090.91 at Caesars, for a total loss of $109,090.91 altogether.
Depspite JJ telling me that I should "never reverse risk-free plays," I highly advise you IN TODAY's world, where stake is NOT returned, to do it on your INITIAL wager. That's what I do all the time. However, I am more risk-adverse than others. I'm about math and reducing risk.
Here's what I mean:
In 2018-19, when almost every New Jersey book gave you the stake back on your free (2nd play)....I would do this.....
Example: FanDuel has a $1000 risk-free bet offer. I played all $1000 on the first bet with no reversing at -110 odds. If I win, my account now reads $1909 and I cash out +909. Done.
If I lose that first bet at FD, I reverse the 2nd bet at DK for $1000. Going to win one place and lose the other. Total loss for losing my first bet: -$91. So, risking $91 to win $909 was what I did. Loved it. And I always shopped for an extra half-point or full point at the 2nd book, so I have chance to "side" one bet and push the other. Full point, try to middle.
Note: almost all books have in small fine print that a push will result in the loss of the free bet; which I totally think is criminal, but that's another story.
Now, fast forward to today: Books no longer give you the stake back on the free (2nd) bet:
Book XYZ has a free bet of up to $1000. You deposit $1000.
Here is what I do now: I reverse the FIRST bet, rather than the 2nd bet. Again, looking for a half-point or full-point difference now at Book ABC. I HOPE that I win at Book ABC, collecting $909. Cash out there for that profit. I still have a $1000 free bet at Book XYZ. Remember, no reversing because it is stake back only. So, I lose my 2nd bet at Book XYZ. Final total for going 0-2 at Book XYZ= -$91. However, if I win my free bet (2nd bet) at Book XYZ, I now have $909 in that account + the $909 I cashed out from the other book, for a total of +818.
In essence, these days, at worst I am risking $91 to win $818.
That's how I currently do things for MY APPETITE.
Your risk tolerance may be much greater.