[amolg24]

Guys I’ve been betting for more than a decade and I think I have a way to get an edge and want to hear your thoughts because it’s a bit complex and involves live betting. What if every live bet you placed and lost, you could go back in time and get a better line? How many of those loses would turn into wins? I noticed that while live betting, when I use my own betting strategy (especially when watching), the line goes against me at some point in time about 50% of the time. So, I go to live bet like I normally would do, and then instead of putting the bet in right away, I wait and keep that number in mind. Then I wait to get at least a 5% edge from the original number (for over/unders) and place the bet.

Example:

Live over/under is at 125 for college basketball game. Instead of placing the bet (let’s say I wanted under) on the spot as I normally would do, I stop myself and wait until it gets to at least 131.5 before placing the bet. It doesn’t always work for every game since that live number could go in the opposite direction, but in those cases you just lay off or you switch to the over and wait until the line goes to at least 118.5. The point is, that if 50% of the time I am wrong, I can focus in on that and live betting will basically show us the pace at which we are wrong with over/under especially. If the number you got was at 125 and there is 5 mins left and the live number is at 120, you are likely going to lose, but at some point you likely could have gotten a number that ended up winning if you had waited. Would getting the line at 5% better mean you will win 5% more of the time or 20% more or 50% more? Time to find out!

There are also other factors that need to be taken into account to refine this system and give a better advantage (number 5 is the best strategy):
1. Track the original closing line so you know how far off the current line it is and whether taking over or under would give the advantage,
2. You can do this with spreads too but the percentage to give you an edge would not be applicable, you would need to test how many points (guessing 5 is a good start) would give you the edge needed.
3. You can start to track your losses with the 5% edge and how far off you were and if more of an edge is required.
4. You can treat it like a stock and bet less amounts but more times on the same bet as the line changes.
5. If you take the better line and then you find yourself with an opportunity to hedge on a good number, take it and potentially go 2-0 or 1-1 at worst.

What do you guys think? Try to turn some losses into wins? I’ve been doing it for a couple weeks now and hitting better than 60% but it’s a small sample size and tracking can be cumbersome over time.

[BuckyOne]

Tracking might be cumbersome but it is the most important thing. You do not want to be lucky / you want to be good.

You are trying to determine what your entry point in the game is. More or less trying to determine a technical way to do so.

Regretfully, fundamentalism is also important in the entry point.

I like your strive for consistency. You are trying to beat the numbers them self. To do so each bet has to have scientific value. You must define value in the numbers.

[jjgold]

It’s random you just happen to be winning right now take it easy

[MOBIL19]

Turning losers into winners. Sounds like a Redzone announcer's strategy, akin to Witching Hour... when losses become wins!

[BuckyOne]

Think what he means is instead of laying 10 1/2 getting it for 3 or getting only +3 where you could get +10 1/2 and cover. But, it is just not that simple because there is a reason the live line changed / still a 50/50 event / tell me where the value is at the new number

[Otters27]

It’s random you just happen to be winning right now take it easy

Jj. I knew you were going to say that

[TommieGunshot]

If you do not have an edge on your bets, this strategy will increase profits (ie reduce losses), because you will bet less. In the example of seeing 125 and only betting if it moves to 131.5, then there is a chance you will not make a bet and lose zero -- which is better than the expected value if you bet with no edge.

[jjgold]

This is not gonna end well I’ve heard too many stories like this they think they got it figured out maybe two months later the kids selling his car