NBA season-win totals released: Who is worth an early bet? 🏀
NBA season-win totals released: Who is worth an early bet?
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Caesars Sportsbook released its NBA win totals Thursday for the upcoming season, so it got us thinking about potential early bets that might be worth a wager.
Our experts -- Joe Fortenbaugh, Jordan Schultz, Preston Johnson and Doug Kezirian -- give their thoughts on the numbers that grabbed their attention.
Note: Opening odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Which number gets you excited to go place now?
Fortenbaugh: Magic over 40.5 After six years of toiling away in the undesirable region that resides between irrelevant and inexcusable, the Orlando Magic burst onto the Eastern Conference scene last season by recording 42 wins and their first trip to the postseason since 2012. Perhaps more impressive, however, was how Orlando closed out the 2018-19 campaign, winning 11 of its final 13 games to secure both a divisional title and the seventh seed in the East. The meat and potatoes of the roster is back, Toronto's Kawhi Leonard moved west and the upcoming schedule is loaded with showdowns against below-average franchises like Washington, Atlanta and Charlotte. Forty-one wins feels comfortable given the circumstances.
How quickly we forget that the Blazers just won 53 games and advanced to the conference finals for the first time in 19 years. Hassan Whiteside is a good pickup -- he can block shots and play screen-and-roll with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum -- as was Pau Gasol, who signed a one-year deal. Rodney Hoodreturns as a solid wing scorer, and Jusuf Nurkic proved himself as one of the premier young centers in the NBA before his injury. Don't forget that McCollum missed 12 games last year. Given how strong the West is, the Blazers may not get reach the 53-win mark again, but 47.5 is way too low for a team this talented, experienced and well coached with Terry Stotts at the helm.
Johnson: Thunder over 30 The Thunder opened at 28 and quickly moved to 31. They still have good value. The Thunder lost Paul George and Russell Westbrook, but the current roster is still well above a 31-win team. Chris Paul dropped off this past season, but he's still an impactful point guard who has plenty of experience running a pick-and-roll offense. They received Shai Gilgeous-Alexander from the Clippers in the trade for George. Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the most promising rookies from last year; he can defend multiple positions and already runs offense like a veteran. Danilo Gallinari also came over in the trade and they bring back a finally healthy Andre Roberson, Dennis Schroder, Steven Adams, Nerlens Noel, and Terrance Ferguson. I project the Thunder for 36.7 wins this year. This is the biggest discrepancy between my numbers and the season win totals that opened at Caesars.
Kezirian: Jazz over 54 and Grizzlies under 25.5 Every season there is one team that treats the regular season more seriously than most. Two years ago it was the Houston Rockets, fresh off the Chris Paul trade. Last year it was the Milwaukee Bucks with a new offense focusing on the 3-pointer. My gut tells me it is Utah this year, which is rejuvenated with the addition of Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic. They are both exactly what this team needed. Donovan Mitchell was forced to carry too much off the offensive load. After a disappointing season (by their standards), I can see the Jazz attacking the regular season with seriousness and hunger. This is their championship window, and they know it. Additionally, they have an inflated home record during the regular season because of lengthy road trips and altitude. This could be a dominant home team.
Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are a bad basketball team. They were dead last in scoring and 27th in offensive efficiency and they lost their best offensive weapon by trading Conley. Rookie Ja Morant will provide some excitement and Jonas Valanciunas will post respectable numbers, but they won't prove to be the difference between wins and losses. Andre Iguodala figures to resurface with a new team and this entire situation will wreak of a rebuilding effort. Throw in a Western Conference schedule and The Grind House will officially assume a new identity. LA over/unders: Which is most attractive?
If you had to place one bet on the following four LA possibilities, which one would you take? The Lakers going over (51.5), the Clippers going over (55.5), the Lakers going under or the Clippers going under? Fortenbaugh: Lakers under 51.5 Leonard just won an NBA championship with the Raptors after load-managing his way to just 60 regular-season games last season. With that in mind, how many starts will a soon-to-be-35-year-old LeBron James make in 2019-20? More concerning for Lakers fans: How many starts will the newly acquired Anthony Davis make, given the fact that he has played in 68 or fewer games in five of his seven professional seasons? The Lakers should top last year's 37 victories, but I believe this win total is inflated due to the James-Davis connection, which is why I'm backing the under.
Schultz: Clippers over 55.5 I am admittedly seduced by the Leonard/George combo, along with my love of Lou Williams' scoring abilities. Montrezl Harrell is a terrific young big man whose activity and improving skill level will be buoyed by Leonard and George's dynamic playmaking. Second-team All-Rookie selection Landry Shamet is a bona fide sniper (42.2 percent from 3-point range) who showed off a high basketball IQ and a sound offensive arsenal. And, in case that wasn't enough, consider that the Clippers have an elite head coach, Doc Rivers, who will coax maximum effort and team synergy.
Kezirian: Lakers under 51.5 The Lakers have an incredible amount of uncertainty and a primary focus on a healthy playoff roster. They've pushed in all their chips and challenged the league to beat James and Davis in a best-of-seven series. They are not fixated on the top seed and thus both superstars will encounter "load management" situations. Plus, with all these new pieces, this team will take time to adjust and find the right lineup combinations and substitution patterns. And I am not entirely sold on the supporting cast. On top of that, who knows how Frank Vogel will handle this giant spotlight -- all while assistant Jason Kidd is potentially positioning himself as Vogel's replacement. The Western Conference is loaded and this squad will pace itself. Which team's total surprises you the most?
Fortenbaugh: Pelicans 39 wins The Pelicans won 33 games last season and then overhauled the roster in explosive fashion by dealing Davis to the Lakers in exchange for Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram and Josh Hart; acquiring Derrick Favors from the Jazz; signing JJ Reddick in free agency; and landing Zion Williamson and Jaxson Hayes via the draft. I thought the Zion hype alone would lead to an opening win total of at least 41, so there may be a bit of value here in betting the over.
Schultz: Spurs 43.5 wins San Antonio will have no problem eclipsing this mark. Aside from DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge, Derrick White and Rudy Gay, the Spurs have two of the league's most exciting young guards, Lonnie Walker IV and Dejounte Murray. Walker flashed his explosive scoring ability in Las Vegas, averaging 30 points per game in two games while showcasing a smooth pullup and playmaking game. Murray is a basketball junkie who has great size and passing ability. He is Gregg Popovich's lead guard of the future.
Johnson: Jazz 54 wins The Jazz were surprising at a 52.5 opening price and still surprising at 54. Last year the Jazz were a 50-win team, but they were the single biggest discrepancy in the NBA versus their ESPN Relative Percent Index expected wins based on point differential (56 wins). Utah quietly posted the second-best net rating in the West last season behind only the Warriors, and they addressed their main glaring issue offensively this offseason: spacing and 3-point shooting. Trading for Conley and adding Bogdanovic will do wonders for Mitchell's efficiency on the offensive end now that he will no longer be sharing the floor regularly with three non-shooters (Ricky Rubio, Rudy Gobert and Favors). Jeff Green and Ed Davis were great free-agency additions to ensure depth on the roster as well. I think the Jazz could be contending for the top seed in the Western Conference.
Kezirian: Pelicans 39 wins This number surprised me the most. I had no idea what to expect. Ever since New Orleans won the draft lottery, I kind of mocked the playoff buzz and readied to hammer the under. However, they signed Redick in free agency and all of a sudden I am understanding the positive outlook. Redick, Jrue Holiday and Favors should provide much-needed leadership for a young core. I would lean under but this number undoubtedly caught my attention. Williamson is a wild card. Are the Bucks really the top team?
The Bucks have the highest win total at 57. Is that number too high, too low or just right? Fortenbaugh: I'd look to the under on the Bucks. Milwaukee won a league-high 60 games last year thanks to an all-in approach from Day 1 of the regular season. That won't be necessary in the Eastern Conference during the 2019-20 campaign. Expect a rise in both load management situations as well as letdown games as a sliver of complacency sets in. Remember, this crew lost back-to-back games just one time last season. That's not happening again.
Schultz: This line is very solid, which means a hard pass for me. Could the Bucks suffer some injuries and win 52 to 55 games? Sure. But a motivated Giannis Antetokounmpo -- he officially does not want to be called the MVP until he wins it again next season -- is nothing to scoff at either. Malcolm Brogdon to Indiana hurts, but by and large this remains the same team that led the NBA with 60 wins -- plus Kawhi went west. Like I said, just leave it alone.
Johnson: I think the Bucks should have the highest win total in the NBA. The Western Conference is stacked to a degree that it is unlikely the league's best record comes from the West. I think the loss of Brogdon for Milwaukee is more significant than most recognize, but I still project the Bucks to win 57.9 games, which is the most of any team in the league. They won 60 games a year ago but had an expected wins record of 64-18 based on their point differential. The Sixers could ultimately give Milwaukee a run for their money in the East for the top seed, but I have them coming in two games lower in my current projections.
Kezirian: I am officially passing. I just can't pull the trigger on the over, but that's where I would lean. Often we assume regression for a team that outperformed its expectations like the Bucks did last year with a 60-win campaign. But this was no fluke. Antetokounmpo won the MVP and all signs point to a guy who's determined to build off that performance. That's why he's the MVP betting favorite. With Leonard's departure, the Eastern Conference weakened and the Bucks should be able to post a similar record. Will Durant's old team or new team be better?
Kevin Durant's old team and new team both came in at 47 wins. Are the Warriors or Nets more likely to go over or under that number? Fortenbaugh: Warriors under 47 I'm not sure what to make of the new-look Brooklyn Nets, but I can assure you that I'm quite bearish on the Golden State Warriors entering Year 6 of the Steve Kerr era. Durant went east, Klay Thompson is coming back from a torn ACL, veteran cornerstones and locker room senators Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston have both departed and, oh yeah, Stephen Curry and Draymond Green have now made five straight NBA Finals runs that include a grand total of 105 postseason matchups. These guys are running on empty with a depleted roster while facing the deepest Western Conference in more than a decade. Forty-seven wins would be a minor miracle.
Schultz: Warriors over 47 Brooklyn is going to be competitive all season, but I would rather trust a proven champion in this scenario, especially given the fact that Kyrie Irvinghas played more than 67 games just once in the past four years. Meanwhile, D'Angelo Russell will mesh with Curry better than people think because he will enable Curry to be more free off the ball. Curry will flirt with 30 PPG for the season as a result. It's certainly not ideal to have Thompson sidelined until at least March, but Kerr won't tolerate a lackluster effort from his team.
Johnson: Nets under 47 These were the Nets who played at least 500 minutes last season and produced a positive on-court net rating: Ed Davis, Treveon Graham, DeMarre Carroll, Jared Dudley, Shabazz Napier, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Allen Crabbeand Russell. What do all of these players have in common? None of them play for the Nets anymore. The Irving and Durant hype is certainly deserved, but Durant is a year away from even playing again after his Achilles injury, and Kyrie brings a ton of question marks surrounding the continuity of the team and his personal health concerns (he has only played 63 games per season for his career). They spent $40 million on DeAndre Jordan because he is friends with Durant, but I thought it was fairly noticeable this past season that Jordan's impact dropped off quite a bit. To make matters worse, he's going to take minutes away from Jarrett Allen, who I believe to be a better player at this point in their careers. The Nets won 42 games last year (41 expected wins), and they lost everybody on the roster who made a positive impact for the team. I project 43.4 wins, so if they reach 48 or more to beat us, I'll tip my cap.
Kezirian: Nets under 47
I am operating under the assumption that Durant will miss the entire regular season. Can Irving successfully carry a team all by himself? He has only demonstrated the opposite. Health has also plagued him. I realize the Nets have a solid supporting cast, but they only won 42 games last year. Are they really six games better with Irving replacing All-Star D'Angelo Russell? Is Kyrie committed to this season, or is he prioritizing his brand (commercials and movies) in the Big Apple until Durant returns for the 2020-21 season? Opening NBA season-win totals
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NBA season-win totals released: Who is worth an early bet? 🏀
Fortenbaugh: Magic over 40.5
Schultz: Blazers over 47.5
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