Saturday's college basketball best bets: Can Louisville return to winning ways?
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The college basketball season is in full swing, and there are plenty of betting opportunities. Our experts -- ESPN's Doug Kezirian, Preston Johnson and Jordan Schultz, as well as Vegas Stats & Information's Matt Youmans -- are here to give their best bets for Saturday's lineup of games.
Records
Kezirian 7-2
Schultz 5-3
Youmans 4-9
Johnson 0-1
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of Friday night, unless noted otherwise. Saturday's games
Schultz: Kentucky continues to roll, having won seven of its past eight thanks to the dynamic scoring of freshman blue-chipper Tyrese Maxey -- a future lottery pick -- as well as 6-foot-11 center Nick Richards, who has made major strides on both sides of the ball. The junior has upped his scoring this season from 4.0 to 14.5 PPG and his rebounding from 3.3 to 8.2 RPG, while drastically increasing his overall activity in the paint.
We can't sleep on Immanuel Quickley, though. After a sluggish start to his sophomore season, "Quick" has been lethal of late, reaching double figures in 13 straight -- averaging 17.8 points per game -- while shooting nearly 47% from deep. As a result, look for BBN to continue its dominance over Ole Miss, extending its winning streak to 11 over the Rebels with a blowout victory at Rupp.
Youmans: The Boilermakers did not have a quality road win all season until upsetting Indiana 74-62 last weekend. Purdue lacks a go-to scorer, such as Carsen Edwards last season, but is getting it done with defense, offensive rebounding and streaky 3-point shooting. Still, the Boilermakers' shooting percentage is significantly worse on the road. The Buckeyes will hold their own in the paint behind 6-foot-9, 270-pound forward Kaleb Wesson (14.1 points, 9.4 rebounds). With two slow-paced offensive teams likely getting involved in a typical Big Ten grinder, look under the total of 128 and lay a short number with Ohio State.
Youmans: Here's a trivia question many college hoops observers might not be able to answer: Which team handed Baylor its only loss of the season? The Bears remain No. 1 in the AP poll, but they are wobbling after recent close calls against Texas, Oklahoma State and Kansas State -- three teams nowhere near the Top 25. (Trivia answer: Washington, the last-place team in the Pac-12.) The Bears are probably going down again soon, so will it happen here?
The Mountaineers folded down the stretch Wednesday in a loss to Kansas, but coach Bob Huggins is typically reliable in bounce-back spots. West Virginia, which ranks No. 2 in adjusted defensive efficiency, can lean on forwards Derek Culver and Oscar Tshiebwe to match Baylor's frontcourt strength. Sharp money might show against the Bears in this Big 12 power struggle in Waco.
Schultz: While we can't overlook the potential absence of Ayo Dosunmu -- Illinois' leading scorer who injured his knee against Michigan State -- this is more about Rutgers than anything else. The cavernous "RAC" has long been a tricky place to play, but things have gotten awfully challenging this season thanks to Piscataway, New Jersey's best team in nearly three decades. A balanced offensive attack with seven players averaging over 7.0 PPG continues to serve Rutgers well. The Scarlet Knights run good stuff and don't turn the ball over.
Defense, however, is where their bread is buttered. Per KenPom, the Scarlet Knights rank 11th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. They're highly disciplined and they don't foul, nor do they allow second-chance opportunities. Expect big days from Ron Harper Jr. and Geo Baker, a boisterous crowd and a Rutgers cover to improve its home record to 17-0 SU for the season.
Kezirian: This is all about the situational spot. I am confident we will see Louisville's best effort, following a disappointing road loss at Georgia Tech. Head coach Chris Mack called out his players for a lack of preparation and readiness. I fully expect this national title contender to show up from the opening tip. On top of that, Clemson is pretty shaky. While the Tigers could find lightning in a bottle like they did by beating Duke, I expect this game to play out like Clemson's 18-point loss at Louisville earlier this season.
Youmans: The Tar Heels are 0-4 since freshman point guard Cole Anthony's return from injury. After Carolina's epic collapse against Duke a week ago, Dr. Phil could have predicted the Heels' blowout loss at Wake Forest three days later. But kids are resilient, and the Carolina players have had more time to find a better frame of mind. The Heels were blowing out the Blue Devils, so they should be able to handle the offensively limited Cavaliers. In a 50-49 overtime victory over Notre Dame this week, the Cavaliers shot 5-for-20 from 3-point range and senior forward Mamadi Diakite scored 20 of the team's points. Carolina has a clear talent advantage, and that could be enough to overcome Tony Bennett's coaching edge.
Youmans: From No. 1 in the preseason to out of the AP Top 25, Michigan State has been slumping and coach Tom Izzo is searching for answers. The situation is not as bad as it seems. The Spartans still rank in the nation's top 20 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Maryland (20-4, 10-3) sits on top of the Big Ten standings and holds a 1.5-game lead over Michigan State (17-8, 9-5) going into the teams' meeting today in East Lansing.
The Spartans' resurgence must start with senior point guard Cassius Winston, who has led the team in scoring in six of the past seven games. Winston needs to win the point guard matchup with the Terrapins' Anthony Cowan Jr., and that should happen. Izzo almost always finds a way to get his teams rolling in March. Don't stop believing. This is an opportunity for Michigan State to tighten the conference race and make a statement.
Youmans: Like clockwork, the Orange are in NCAA bubble trouble with March around the corner. Syracuse (14-10) ranks 61st overall, per KenPom, and needs a few key wins to strengthen its case, so this is a big opportunity in Tallahassee. Jim Boeheim's team is 3-1 on the road in ACC play with wins at Notre Dame, Virginia and Virginia Tech and a one-point loss at Clemson.
Florida State (20-4) is No. 8 in the AP poll, yet most metrics show this is a slightly overrated team (No. 18 on Kenpom). Syracuse's zone defense should pose problems for the Seminoles, who shot 3-for-18 on 3s and made 12 of 20 free throws Monday in a 70-65 loss at Duke. Elijah Hughes, the leading scorer for the Orange at 18.6 points per game, is questionable to play with a groin injury, though some signs point to him being ready to go. If Hughes is out, this line will go to at least 10. Syracuse will need secondary scorers Marek Dolezaj and Quincy Guerrier to step up. The Orange are worth a look due to their recent success on the road.
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