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NFL Squares
I ran some numbers on these and maybe others can find it useful
Since 2015 when NFL moved the extra point back, there has been 1332 games played up to and including last week's games. 5 games were tied so I didn't include those here but I'll post the scores at the end for posterity
Last digit of winning and losing score:
Winning Score Losing Score 4 192 14.469% 0 276 20.799% 7 192 14.469% 7 223 16.805% 0 178 13.414% 3 200 15.072% 1 145 10.927% 4 156 11.756% 3 145 10.927% 6 142 10.701% 6 128 9.646% 1 93 7.008% 8 120 9.043% 9 75 5.652% 9 79 5.953% 2 62 4.672% 5 78 5.878% 8 55 4.145% 2 70 5.275% 5 45 3.391% 1327 1 1327 1
Top 21 squares and probabilities
0-7 50 3.7679% 3-0 47 3.5418% 7-0 43 3.2404% 4-7 42 3.1650% 4-0 40 3.0143% 6-0 38 2.8636% 7-4 38 2.8636% 7-3 34 2.5622% 0-3 31 2.3361% 3-7 29 2.1854% 4-1 29 2.1854% 1-4 28 2.1100% 4-3 27 2.0347% 0-0 26 1.9593% 1-3 24 1.8086% 1-7 24 1.8086% 6-3 24 1.8086% 7-6 23 1.7332% 0-6 21 1.5825% 4-6 21 1.5825% 5-0 21 1.5825%
Squares that have occurred just two times or less
2-3 2 0.1507% 4-5 2 0.1507% 5-5 2 0.1507% 5-9 2 0.1507% 8-9 2 0.1507% 9-1 2 0.1507% 0-1 1 0.0754% 2-2 0 0.0000% 2-5 0 0.0000%
If winning/losing team doesn't matter:
0-7 7-0 93 7.0083% 4-7 7-4 80 6.0286% 0-3 3-0 78 5.8779% 3-7 7-3 63 4.7476% 0-4 4-0 60 4.5215% 0-6 6-0 59 4.4461% 1-4 4-1 57 4.2954% 3-6 6-3 41 3.0897% 1-7 7-1 35 2.6375% 4-6 6-4 35 2.6375% 1-3 3-1 31 2.3361% 3-4 4-3 31 2.3361% 6-7 7-6 28 2.1100% 7-9 9-7 28 2.1100% 0-5 5-0 27 2.0347% 0-0 26 1.9593% 1-8 8-1 26 1.9593% 0-9 9-0 24 1.8086% 3-9 9-3 23 1.7332% 4-8 8-4 23 1.7332%
Not too many surprises, the most common squares almost all involve 0, 3, 4 or 7. I thought it interesting the 6-0 square has come up so frequently and could be a good square to pick when most of the obvious ones are gone
5 games that were tied:
6-6 27-27 21-21 29-29 27-27
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