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Best bets for UFC 245: Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington 👊
Best bets for UFC 245: Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
There may be one more UFC card later this year, but it's UFC 245 that will be the December Las Vegas blowout that fans have come to expect. And as has only occurred a few rare occasions before, we'll get three title fights on the same card.
Each title matchup is compelling for different reasons, and the contenders are all deserving, and bringing fresh matchups to these title pictures. As we'll see, we like one favorite, one underdog and one surprising pass.
Early prelims begin at 6:15 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and prelims are at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2, followed by the main card at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday.
Welterweight Championship: Champ Kamaru Usman (-175) vs. No. 2 Colby Covington (+145)
Tale Of The Tape
COLBY COVINGTON KAMARU USMAN Last Fight Weight Class Welterweight Welterweight Current Age 31 32 Height 71 72 Reach 72 76 Stance Orthodox Orthodox Analyzed Minutes 153 159 Standup striking offense Total Knockdown Ratio (Scored : Received) 1:0 3:0 Distance Knockdown Rate 0.5% 2.5% Head Jab Accuracy 21% 39% Head Power Accuracy 29% 30% Total Standup Strike Ratio 1.8 1.4 Striking defense Total Head Strike Defense 69% 73% Distance Knockdown Defense ("Chin") 100% 100% Wrestling and grappling TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch 1.13 0.90 Takedown Accuracy 52% 51% Advances per Takedown/Top Control 0.7 1.0 Opponent Takedown Attempts 23 17 Takedown Defense 78% 100% Share of Total Ground Time in Control 94% 100% Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground 0.03 0.05
Despite these former teammates having completely divergent personalities, Covington and Usman actually resemble each other closely in skill sets and performance metrics. Both former NCAA wrestlers added solid offensive boxing to help them control the cage and dominate fights through volume. The difference is that Usman has relied on his wrestling more often -- and more successfully -- while Covington and used a Max Holloway-esque style of constant stand-up pressure to win rounds.
Whichever fighter gets to leverage his best strength will get the edge in any given round. Usman might test his wrestling early, and the outcome of the first round might be indicative of the rest. But Covington's movement and conditioning could put Usman on the defensive, and we haven't seen Usman get tested with striking pressure the way that Covington has demonstrated he can deliver. An early knockout from either man is unlikely, meaning strategy and preparation will also come into play in what is likely to be a very close fight that goes to a decision.
E+ recommends: Money-line lean on Covington for the upset. Prop on Covington by decision if it hits +300. Over 3.5 rounds for parlays.
Featherweight Championship: Champ Max Holloway (-185) vs. No. 1 Alexander Volkanovski (+155)
Tale Of The Tape
ALEX VOLKANOVSKI MAX HOLLOWAY Last Fight Weight Class Featherweight Featherweight Current Age 31 28 Height 66 71 Reach 71 70 Stance Orthodox Orthodox Analyzed Minutes 86 286 Standup striking offense Total Knockdown Ratio (Scored : Received) 4:1 8:0 Distance Knockdown Rate 4.2% 0.8% Head Jab Accuracy 43% 32% Head Power Accuracy 41% 40% Total Standup Strike Ratio 1.1 1.2 Striking defense Total Head Strike Defense 70% 72% Distance Knockdown Defense ("Chin") 99% 100% Wrestling and grappling TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch 0.64 0.02 Takedown Accuracy 38% 83% Advances per Takedown/Top Control 0.8 3.6 Opponent Takedown Attempts 22 130 Takedown Defense 73% 85% Share of Total Ground Time in Control 84% 42% Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground 0.14 0.32
In recent years, Holloway has looked unstoppable at featherweight, with a deceptively dominant style of fighting that deploys high-volume, precise distance striking. He's capable of running away with most fights, sometimes finishing elite talent through an accumulation of damage. He can put on a high pace, maintain it through championship rounds, all while vastly out landing his opponents. His only recent loss came against Dustin Poirier for the lightweight title, a fight where Poirier's heavier hands did early damage and his threat of takedowns may have slowed Holloway's normal style.
Enter the relatively young and undamaged Volkanovski, who matches Holloway closely in terms of striking accuracy and avoidance. While Volkanovski hasn't put on the same high pace that Holloway has, he does match up well on paper and is equally rangy for the division. He arguably hits harder than Holloway, and Volkanovski will most certainly attempt takedowns frequently to force Holloway to defend position. Stylistically, and according to performance metrics, Volkanovski is a real threat to steal some rounds against the champ. But we haven't seen enough fight history to be totally sold on the upset just yet.
E+ recommends: ML Lean Holloway, but pass at current odds. His price might drop to make this more playable.
Women's Bantam Championship: Champ Amanda Nunes (-300) vs. No. 1 Germaine de Randamie (+240)
Tale Of The TapeNunes is now the only active double champ in the game, and her highlight reel of title-fight finishes supports why she's the biggest betting favorite of the three title fights at UFC 245. Nunes is a true double threat, with the best offensive striking metrics of any female fighter and a dangerous Jiu Jitsu game that sometimes people forget about.
AMANDA NUNES GERMAINE DE RANDAMIE Last Fight Weight Class Bantamweight Bantamweight Current Age 31 35 Height 68 69 Reach 69 71 Stance Orthodox Orthodox Analyzed Minutes 104 89 Standup striking offense Total Knockdown Ratio (Scored : Received) 5:0 3:0 Distance Knockdown Rate 4.3% 2.4% Head Jab Accuracy 37% 19% Head Power Accuracy 42% 38% Total Standup Strike Ratio 1.3 1.0 Striking defense Total Head Strike Defense 75% 89% Distance Knockdown Defense ("Chin") 100% 100% Wrestling and grappling TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch 0.42 0.02 Takedown Accuracy 39% 0% Advances per Takedown/Top Control 1.2 N/A Opponent Takedown Attempts 25 45 Takedown Defense 80% 89% Share of Total Ground Time in Control 66% 3% Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground 0.24 0.20
In this matchup, however, Nunes will be facing a competent technical striker in de Randamie, who has impressive professional kickboxing and Muay Thai credentials. On paper, they are both highly accurate with above-average power. Nunes owns the better offensive striking metrics, while de Randamie is more evasive. In a shootout, both could have their moments, but expect Nunes to eventually take control. And if not, Nunes will have a vast ground advantage to exploit, either at will or opportunistically, to set up a ground finish.
E+ recommends: ML play on Nunes. Prop on Nunes by submission at over +400.
Other fight card values
If you're looking for a betting favorite to pair with Nunes, consider Petr Yan. He'll own a nearly unprecedented 14-year youth advantage against Urijah Faber, part of why Yan is currently the biggest favorite on the card. His numbers are solid, and he's handled dangerous and well-rounded wrestler-striker hybrids before.
For a long-shot upset, consider a prop bet on Ben Saunders inside the distance at roughly +400. Though deservedly the underdog, given his recent career trajectory and his opponent Matt Brown's better competitive resume, Saunders specializes in the one thing that appears to be Brown's primary weakness: body blows. Saunders is a tall striker who likes to clinch and use knees, which could floor Brown if any of them connect. This fight is also unlikely to go the distance, regardless of the winner.
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