1. #1
    dlowilly
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    Bucks not to make playoffs

    Ticket#:5129183
    Oct 20 07:00 PM
    INTERNET / -1 Oct 21 12:25 PM MU STRAIGHT BET
    MILWAUKEE BUCKS - MAKE THE 2020 PLAYOFFS
    [252034] N- BUCKS MAKE THE PLAYOFFS +8250
    (Y- BUCKS MAKE THE PLAYOFFS vrs N- BUCKS MAKE THE PLAYOFF
    200.00 / 16500.00

    Figure it's worth a shot

    Seems like a better than 82.5-1 shot that Giannis tears an achilles or something in the first half of the season

    Then you have Bledsoe as the main man? I don't think so
    Last edited by dlowilly; 10-25-19 at 12:14 PM. Reason: 82.5 -1 not 82 to 1

  2. #2
    milwaukee mike
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    i think they could lose giannis, bledsoe, middleton, and matthews in the 1st week and still win that division
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  3. #3
    dlowilly
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    Quote Originally Posted by milwaukee mike View Post
    i think they could lose giannis, bledsoe, middleton, and matthews in the 1st week and still win that division
    Agreed, their division is weak but NBA playoff berths are based on overall record

  4. #4
    jjgold
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    Dumb bet

  5. #5
    sosawestbrook
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    you can float around .500 and still make the playoffs in the East. you would have been better off taking one of the top dogs in the West (Warriors, Blazers, Spurs, etc) to not make the playoffs. West conference will be an absolute slobber knocker for playoff positioning.

  6. #6
    dlowilly
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    Quote Originally Posted by sosawestbrook View Post
    you can float around .500 and still make the playoffs in the East. you would have been better off taking one of the top dogs in the West (Warriors, Blazers, Spurs, etc) to not make the playoffs. West conference will be an absolute slobber knocker for playoff positioning.
    Like I said, I'm betting something catastrophic happens to the team, not that they play poorly

    Not like I'm counting the money I just feel the odds were +ev

    If a roulette table paid 40-1 on any number wouldn't you bet something?

  7. #7
    dlowilly
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Dumb bet
    Thanks for your input

  8. #8
    IBetYou
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    So you're betting he suffers season ending injury before Xmas 40-1, and assuming that's enough for them to miss the playoffs.

  9. #9
    dlowilly
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    Quote Originally Posted by IBetYou View Post
    So you're betting he suffers season ending injury before Xmas 40-1, and assuming that's enough for them to miss the playoffs.
    No

    82.5-1

    Also, Bledsoe is already on shaky ground in the health dept.

  10. #10
    IBetYou
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    Pacers lost Oladipo in late January of this year... didn't even slide out of the top 4 in the East. Might have to be a November injury

  11. #11
    sosawestbrook
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    Quote Originally Posted by dlowilly View Post
    Like I said, I'm betting something catastrophic happens to the team, not that they play poorly

    Not like I'm counting the money I just feel the odds were +ev

    If a roulette table paid 40-1 on any number wouldn't you bet something?
    I mean sure but Im just letting you know from a basketball standpoint that this bet basically stands no chance. even if Giannis got hurt, the Bucks would still make the playoffs. good luck with it though.

  12. #12
    shocka1212
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Dumb bet
    tell em coach
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  13. #13
    asiagambler
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    Giannis could get hurt on day one and Bucks would still make the playoffs. Middleton would be their main man, not Bledsoe

    You need Giannis + at least another injury for this bet to have a chance.

    Look at the Hawks team with no stars that Budenholzer got to 60 wins and a #1 seed in the East

    I don't know what the number is but it's greater than 82-1

  14. #14
    dlowilly
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Dumb bet
    Quote Originally Posted by shocka1212 View Post
    tell em coach
    u guys do me a favor

    Find me a bucks to make playoffs bet somewhere that is more than -8250

  15. #15
    dlowilly
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    Quote Originally Posted by asiagambler View Post
    Giannis could get hurt on day one and Bucks would still make the playoffs. Middleton would be their main man, not Bledsoe

    You need Giannis + at least another injury for this bet to have a chance.

    Look at the Hawks team with no stars that Budenholzer got to 60 wins and a #1 seed in the East

    I don't know what the number is but it's greater than 82-1
    If that’s the case it should be easy to find a book that offers over -8250 or more for bucks to make playoffs

  16. #16
    asiagambler
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    Quote Originally Posted by dlowilly View Post
    If that’s the case it should be easy to find a book that offers over -8250 or more for bucks to make playoffs
    Doesn't work like that. Books are trying to get money on the dog in most of these type of really longshot bets

  17. #17
    IBetYou
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    Quote Originally Posted by asiagambler View Post
    Giannis could get hurt on day one and Bucks would still make the playoffs. Middleton would be their main man, not Bledsoe

    You need Giannis + at least another injury for this bet to have a chance.

    Look at the Hawks team with no stars that Budenholzer got to 60 wins and a #1 seed in the East

    I don't know what the number is but it's greater than 82-1
    Milsap & Horford were tremendous players in their prime. But coach Bud' is a superb coach, we agree there.

  18. #18
    dlowilly
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    Quote Originally Posted by asiagambler View Post
    Doesn't work like that. Books are trying to get money on the dog in most of these type of really longshot bets
    Wrong

    books are in the business of not offering +ev bets on either side with these futures bets

    There is a wide range between the dog and the favorite for them to ensure this and these odds are outside of the range

    Keep in mind this is a bet on credit with a local so not tying up money

  19. #19
    IBetYou
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    Horford was the guy Durant wanted in OKC for him to stay. Media/ fans never caught on to how good this guy was.

  20. #20
    asiagambler
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    Quote Originally Posted by dlowilly View Post
    Wrong

    books are in the business of not offering +ev bets on either side with these futures bets

    There is a wide range between the dog and the favorite for them to ensure this and these odds are outside of the range

    Keep in mind this is a bet on credit with a local so not tying up money
    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...nteed-win.html

  21. #21
    SendIt247
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    Good luck

  22. #22
    asiagambler
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    Good point with Horford. Very underrated player for how good he was (and is)

  23. #23
    Goat Milk
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    No such thing as value if chances are 0.0%

    Can give you this same bet for +1,000,000. Odds of it happening are still the same. 0%. Coach Bud is a regular season coach, never forget that. He's like a manning.

  24. #24
    MrSink
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    never said that here but saloooon please
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  25. #25
    Hman
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    Just curious why this wager caught your eye...??

  26. #26
    d2bets
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    At 83-1 what the hell. That's pretty crazy.
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  27. #27
    nyplayer33
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    200 bucks on that...lol. dam. How about some parlays that are so ewhat realistic

  28. #28
    dlowilly
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    At 83-1 what the hell. That's pretty crazy.
    Thank you

    That's all I'm saying

  29. #29
    dlowilly
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    Not sure what ur trying to say with this link

  30. #30
    ThaTopMoron
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  31. #31
    dlowilly
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    A lot of posters in this thread laughing saying it's too much of a longshot and a dumb bet

    They must have been asleep when the Vegas Knights made the Stanley cup finals their inaugural year and Leicester City won the premiership

  32. #32
    WvGambler
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    I don’t wanna be “that guy” but I bet the odds of a catastrophic injury are worse than 82-1. I mean yea it happens....but if you really boil it down to it happening to a specific player, on a specific year, when you make a specific bet, and the team has to perform a specific way afterwards....just saying. Longer than 82-1. I’ve done the math.
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  33. #33
    dlowilly
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hman View Post
    Just curious why this wager caught your eye...??
    Strictly the numbers

    I make a ton of season long prop bets on the major sports when I find what I think is a good number so when you combine them all it's not that big of a longshot

    If you bet 18 of the 36 numbers on a roulette wheel at 40-1 each it's a +ev bet and not a long shot anymore when you combine them all

  34. #34
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by WvGambler View Post
    I don’t wanna be “that guy” but I bet the odds of a catastrophic injury are worse than 82-1. I mean yea it happens....but if you really boil it down to it happening to a specific player, on a specific year, when you make a specific bet, and the team has to perform a specific way afterwards....just saying. Longer than 82-1. I’ve done the math.
    Are you just talking about Giannis? The odds of him suffering a season-ending injury is way more than 82-1. You think in 82 hypothetical season he wouldn't get injured more than once? Most players get injured for the year at least once in a 10-15 year career. This would be once out of 8 players over a career. It's way more that.

    Put it this way. If I could get 82-1 on Giannis playing less than 25 games this season, I'd jump all over it. Large.
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  35. #35
    dlowilly
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Are you just talking about Giannis? The odds of him suffering a season-ending injury is way more than 82-1. You think in 82 hypothetical season he wouldn't get injured more than once? Most players get injured for the year at least once in a 10-15 year career. This would be once out of 8 players over a career. It's way more that.

    Put it this way. If I could get 82-1 on Giannis playing less than 25 games this season, I'd jump all over it. Large.
    Especially with him

    Guy plays like 42 minutes per game and it's physical, not running around at the perimeter

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