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Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs. Waterson 👊
Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs. Waterson
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Saturday's UFC Fight Night main event features two strawweight contenders on very different trajectories.
Michelle Waterson has won three in a row, building her run entirely as an underdog. Her opponent, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, is a former UFC strawweight champion but is 1-3 in her past four fights.
Jedrzejczyk, however, opened as a strong betting favorite and has maintained that position heading into fight week.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, as of Oct. 9.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk (-400) vs. Michelle Waterson (+300)
Tale Of The Tape
Despite the different recent paths of these fighters, they've amassed enough Octagon time for some comparison, though arguably Jedrzejczyk has faced stiffer competition in recent years.
MICHELLE WATERSON JOANNA JEDRZEJCZYK Previous fight weight class Strawweight Flyweight Current age 33 32 Height 63 66 Reach 62 65.5 Stance Orthodox Orthodox Analyzed minutes 85 222 Standup striking offense Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) 0:1 1:2 Distance knockdown rate 0% 0.3% Head jab accuracy 26% 23% Head power accuracy 33% 34% Total standup strike ratio 1.0 1.6 Striking defense Total head strike defense 73% 75% Distance knockdown defense ("chin") 98% 99% Wrestling and grappling TD attempts per min. standing/clinch 0.42 0.01 Takedown accuracy 62% 67% Advances per takedown/top control 1.3 0.0 Opponent takedown attempts 10 113 Takedown defense 60% 81% Share of total ground time in control 53% 19% Submission attempts per trip to ground 0.47 0.00
Jedrzejczyk has lost only in title appearances: twice to former champion Rose Namajunas and once to current flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko. The most recent outing at flyweight might muddy our view, as Jedrzejczyk will enter the cage against Waterson as the larger (and even slightly younger) fighter.
Tale Of The Tape
Despite the different recent paths of these fighters, they've amassed enough Octagon time for some comparison, though arguably Jedrzejczyk has faced stiffer competition in recent years.
MICHELLE WATERSON JOANNA JEDRZEJCZYK Previous fight weight class Strawweight Flyweight Current age 33 32 Height 63 66 Reach 62 65.5 Stance Orthodox Orthodox Analyzed minutes 85 222 Standup striking offense Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) 0:1 1:2 Distance knockdown rate 0% 0.3% Head jab accuracy 26% 23% Head power accuracy 33% 34% Total standup strike ratio 1.0 1.6 Striking defense Total head strike defense 73% 75% Distance knockdown defense ("chin") 98% 99% Wrestling and grappling TD attempts per min. standing/clinch 0.42 0.01 Takedown accuracy 62% 67% Advances per takedown/top control 1.3 0.0 Opponent takedown attempts 10 113 Takedown defense 60% 81% Share of total ground time in control 53% 19% Submission attempts per trip to ground 0.47 0.00
Jedrzejczyk has lost only in title appearances: twice to former champion Rose Namajunas and once to current flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko. The most recent outing at flyweight might muddy our view, as Jedrzejczyk will enter the cage against Waterson as the larger (and even slightly younger) fighter.
Given the chalk on the former champ in the main event, many will be looking to pair Jedrzejczyk with another safe play. Consider the Over 2.5 or Goes the Distance prop on JJ Aldrich vs. Lauren Mueller.
The two are identical sizes, with almost identical performance metrics, and neither has finished an opponent since 2016 in earlier promotions. The odds are close, but whoever wins, it's likely to require the scorecards.
E+ recommends: Over 2.5 or Goes the Distance
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