[dj_destroyer]

Just trying out a new system, seems to have a decent edge but like most systems, it is deeply flawed and I haven't figured out a few fundamental problems like when is the best time to bet, is my edge really what I think it is (how big of a sample is needed), is Kelly worth it and if so, fractional? I'm still always learning and open to discussion and ideas. Working with a $2k budget, betting 1-3% per.

Cheers!


(Back results: "system" is 25-26-1 for +275.37 with a few penders below so we're off to a good start but now that I've posted it, expect to revert back to the norm

Canucks [-195] $19.50 to win 10
Ducks/Kings U5.5 [-107] $10.70 to win 10
Orioles/Jays U10.5 [-110] $33 to win 30

For tomorrow:

Astros/Mariners O9 [+105] $10 to win 10.50
Rockies/Giants O8 [+105] $10 to win 10.50

Some opening NFL lines:

Cowboys/Saints O45.5 [-115] $34.50 to win 30
Vikings +3 [-110] $11 to win 10
Panthers/Texans O46 [-110] $11 to win 10

[dj_destroyer]

25-26-1 (+$275.37)
Canucks [-195] $19.50 to win 10 ✅
Ducks/Kings U5.5 [-107] $10.70 to win 10 ✅
Orioles/Jays U10.5 [-110] $33 to win 30 ❌

27-27-1 (+$262.37)

Ongoing:

Astros/Mariners O9 [+105] $10 to win 10.50
Rockies/Giants O8 [+105] $10 to win 10.50
Cowboys/Saints O45.5 [-115] $34.50 to win 30
Vikings +3 [-110] $11 to win 10
Panthers/Texans O46 [-110] $11 to win 10

Adding these:

Tigers [+215] $10 to win 21.5
Orioles [+125] $10 to win 12.50
Nationals -1.5 [+118] $10 to win 11.80
Astros -1.5 [-236] $11.80 to win 5

[dj_destroyer]

27-27-1 (+$262.37)

Cowboys/Saints O45.5 [-115] $34.50 to win 30
Vikings +3 [-110] $11 to win 10
Panthers/Texans O46 [-110] $11 to win 10
Astros/Mariners O9 [+105] $10 to win 10.50 ❌
Rockies/Giants O8 [+105] $10 to win 10.50 ✅
Tigers [+215] $10 to win 21.5 ❌
Orioles [+125] $10 to win 12.50 ✅
Nationals -1.5 [+118] $10 to win 11.80 ✅
Astros -1.5 [-236] $11.80 to win 5 ✅

4-2 (+$19.80)

31-29-1 (+$282.17)

Adding this parlay:

Indians -1.5 and Astros -1.5 [+141] $10 to win 14.14

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Just trying out a new system, seems to have a decent edge but like most systems, it is deeply flawed and I haven't figured out a few fundamental problems like when is the best time to bet, is my edge really what I think it is …..

If you acknowledge fundamental problems, it's 99.9999999% certain your edge is less than you think it is :-)

[dj_destroyer]

If you acknowledge fundamental problems, it's 99.9999999% certain your edge is less than you think it is :-)

So this is slightly covered in my next fundamental problem of what fraction to use Kelly at? It's an answer to my edge certainly being less than it is as using fractional Kelly effectively means you're averaging your edge out closer to 0, so it's a good middle ground. I think gamblers around the world mostly agree fractional Kelly is the way to go to account for overvaluing your edge. I don't know many people doing full Kelly either way though so who knows? I am also perhaps overvaluing beating the closing line/the best line as this has been discussed plenty in the past as not entirely important but it is mostly the basis for this system just to be clear and open. Thanks for dropping in.

I know no one is touching pre-season NHL but the lines are so volatile, it's a good market to get some practice in with some 0.5% bets. Doing a 2/3 wheel here, for anyone who doesn't know wheels/rotations are for parlays, it simply means I'm playing every 2-game combination out of 3 overall picks, hence the 2/3. You can do whatever you want, 2/4, 3/7, 8/9, literally any fraction works. You can also add in keys or multi-wheels. For example, a "key" means it's on every ticket. So you could key in on one game and then do 2/3 wheel on top of it so it would be your key on all three tickets plus each combination of two out of three for a total of three slips that have three picks on them each. A multi-wheel is when you combine wheels so for example, a 2/3+2/3 would work out as below using the letters ABC and XYZ as the 6 games.

ABC, XYZ

A normal 2/3 for each letter combo would like this:

AB
BC
AC

XY
YZ
XZ

But 2/3+2/3 means you combine them for the final bet slips:

ABXY
ABYZ
ABXZ

BCXY
BCYZ
BCXZ

ACXY
ACYZ
ACXZ

for a total of 9 tickets which ultimately would allow you to get one wrong from each set of picks and still come out with a winner (albeit down perhaps a few units). If you only get one wrong, you make a decent profit and if you get none wrong, you make a healthy profit but obviously not as much as if you had just played the parlay straight across ABCXYZ for the entire wager you used across the 12 tickets. So basically it mitigates risk in return for lower payout. I'm sure that was confusing as penetrate and helped no one so google it if you want to find out more

My 2/3:

Penguins/Leafs [+131] $10 to win 13.1
Penguins/Predators [+139] $10 to win 13.9
Predators/Leafs [+150] $10 to win 15

[dj_destroyer]

31-29-1 (+$282.17)
Cowboys/Saints O45.5 [-115] $34.50 to win 30
Vikings +3 [-110] $11 to win 10
Panthers/Texans O46 [-110] $11 to win 10
Indians -1.5 and Astros -1.5 [+141] $10 to win 14.14 ❌
Penguins/Leafs [+131] $10 to win 13.1 ✅
Penguins/Predators [+139] $10 to win 13.9 ✅
Predators/Leafs [+150] $10 to win 15 ✅

3-1 (+$32)

34-30-1 (+$314.17)

Putting in some UFC picks for the weekend hoping for some favourable line movement and also some college football favs:

Marc Diakiese [-140] $14 to win 10
Nicolas Dalby [+135] $10 to win 13.5

Mark Madsen/Wisconsin/Iowa/Clemson/Southern Miss [-204] $20.40 to win 10
Mark Madsen/Wisconsin/Iowa/Clemson/Southern Miss/Vanderbilt/SMU/Auburn [+262] $10 to win 26.20

Vanderbilt/SMU [-107] $10.70 to win 10
Auburn/Vanderbilt [-126] $12.60 to win 10
SMU/Auburn [-142] $14.20 to win 10

[dj_destroyer]

Adding:

Cinci Reds [-115] $23 to win 20

Ongoing:

Cowboys/Saints O45.5 [-115] $34.50 to win 30
Vikings +3 [-110] $11 to win 10
Panthers/Texans O46 [-110] $11 to win 10

Marc Diakiese [-140] $14 to win 10
Nicolas Dalby [+135] $10 to win 13.5

Mark Madsen/Wisconsin/Iowa/Clemson/Southern Miss [-204] $20.40 to win 10
Mark Madsen/Wisconsin/Iowa/Clemson/Southern Miss/Vanderbilt/SMU/Auburn [+262] $10 to win 26.20

Vanderbilt/SMU [-107] $10.70 to win 10
Auburn/Vanderbilt [-126] $12.60 to win 10
SMU/Auburn [-142] $14.20 to win 10

[PaperTrail07]

Dalby will have his teeth kicked in lol......GL DJD---check out my mma picks...been on Fire

3-1 (+$32)

34-30-1 (+$314.17)

Putting in some UFC picks for the weekend hoping for some favourable line movement and also some college football favs:

Marc Diakiese [-140] $14 to win 10
Nicolas Dalby [+135] $10 to win 13.5

Mark Madsen/Wisconsin/Iowa/Clemson/Southern Miss [-204] $20.40 to win 10
Mark Madsen/Wisconsin/Iowa/Clemson/Southern Miss/Vanderbilt/SMU/Auburn [+262] $10 to win 26.20

Vanderbilt/SMU [-107] $10.70 to win 10
Auburn/Vanderbilt [-126] $12.60 to win 10
SMU/Auburn [-142] $14.20 to win 10

[dj_destroyer]

Dalby will have his teeth kicked in lol......GL DJD---check out my mma picks...been on Fire

GL Paper, I don't know enough about MMA. Just testing out a system based on line movement/steam/public perception. Nothing scientific, quite the opposite.

Tossed these in:

White Sox [+175] $20 to win 35
Pirates [+120] $20 to win 24

[PaperTrail07]

MMA moves ALL OVER...esp night before w weigh ins...

GL Paper, I don't know enough about MMA. Just testing out a system based on line movement/steam/public perception. Nothing scientific, quite the opposite.

Tossed these in:

White Sox [+175] $20 to win 35
Pirates [+120] $20 to win 24

[dj_destroyer]

Ongoing:

Cowboys/Saints O45.5 [-115] $34.50 to win 30
Vikings +3 [-110] $11 to win 10
Panthers/Texans O46 [-110] $11 to win 10

Marc Diakiese [-140] $14 to win 10Nicolas Dalby [+135] $10 to win 13.5
Mark Madsen/Wisconsin/Iowa/Clemson/Southern Miss [-204] $20.40 to win 10
Mark Madsen/Wisconsin/Iowa/Clemson/Southern Miss/Vanderbilt/SMU/Auburn [+262] $10 to win 26.20

Vanderbilt/SMU [-107] $10.70 to win 10
Auburn/Vanderbilt [-126] $12.60 to win 10
SMU/Auburn [-142] $14.20 to win 10

Cinci Reds [-115] $23 to win 20 ❌
White Sox [+175] $20 to win 35 ✅
Pirates [+120] $20 to win 24 ✅

2-1 (+$36)
36-31-1 (+$350.17)

Bills +7.5 [-105] $10.50 to win 10

[dj_destroyer]

36-31-1 (+$350.17)

Ongoing:

Cowboys/Saints O45.5 [-115] $34.50 to win 30
Vikings +3 [-110] $11 to win 10
Panthers/Texans O46 [-110] $11 to win 10

Marc Diakiese [-140] $14 to win 10
Nicolas Dalby [+135] $10 to win 13.5

Mark Madsen/Wisconsin/Iowa/Clemson/Southern Miss [-204] $20.40 to win 10 Mark Madsen/Wisconsin/Iowa/Clemson/Southern Miss/Vanderbilt/SMU/Auburn [+262] $10 to win 26.20

Vanderbilt/SMU [-107] $10.70 to win 10
Auburn/Vanderbilt [-126] $12.60 to win 10 SMU/Auburn [-142] $14.20 to win 10

Bills +7.5 [-105] $10.50 to win 10

Adding:

Blues [-115] $11.50 to win 10
Kings [+155] $10 to win 15.5
Predators -1.5/James Gallagher [-145] $14.50 to win 10

[dj_destroyer]

36-31-1 (+$350.17)
Ongoing:
Cowboys/Saints O45.5 [-115] $34.50 to win 30
Vikings +3 [-110] $11 to win 10
Panthers/Texans O46 [-110] $11 to win 10

Marc Diakiese [-140] $14 to win 10
Nicolas Dalby [+135] $10 to win 13.5

Mark Madsen/Wisconsin/Iowa/Clemson/Southern Miss [-204] $20.40 to win 10
Mark Madsen/Wisconsin/Iowa/Clemson/Southern Miss/Vanderbilt/SMU/Auburn [+262] $10 to win 26.20


Vanderbilt/SMU [-107] $10.70 to win 10
Auburn/Vanderbilt [-126] $12.60 to win 10
SMU/Auburn [-142] $14.20 to win 10


Bills +7.5 [-105] $10.50 to win 10


Blues [-115] $11.50 to win 10 ✅
Kings [+155] $10 to win 15.5 ✅
Predators -1.5/James Gallagher [-145] $14.50 to win 10 ❌

2-1 (+$11)

38-32-1 (+$361.17)


Juan Archuleta [+120] $20 to win 24

[dj_destroyer]

Ouu I'm an idiot. Just checked my account and it looked beefier than I expected. Turns out it was Predators +1.5, not -1.5 which should be obvious from the odds but I apologize to anyone following.

September 27, 2019 22:08

WIN

Win Combination Bet

+$24.50

ID: 76780955
1. Nashville Predators at Carolina Hurricanes
Nashville Predators +1.5
-245

[Win]

2. Bellator 227 - Roman Salazar v James Gallagher
James Gallagher
-500

[Win]

September 27, 2019 10:54

PLACED [Win]

Placed Combination Bet

-$14.50

ID: 76780955
1. Nashville Predators at Carolina Hurricanes
Nashville Predators +1.5
-245

[Win]

2. Bellator 227 - Roman Salazar v James Gallagher
James Gallagher
-500

[Win]

Payout:$24.50



Updated:
3-0 (+$35.50)
39-31-1 (+$385.67)
Juan Archuleta [+120] $20 to win 24

[Bsims]

I'm not sure why these picks are being posted in this Think Tank forum. There are other forums here for posting your picks.

[semibluff]

I agree with @Bsims but I didn't want to be the 1st person to criticise in this thread. If the op has a system then post what it is. There's nothing obvious posted here. Favourites, dogs, home road, all-sports. There's nothing we can advise with or comment on. If it's just picks then this is definitely the wrong forum.

[dj_destroyer]

I'm not sure why these picks are being posted in this Think Tank forum. There are other forums here for posting your picks.

I just went off the description for "Handicapper Think Tank": Handicapping theories, betting systems, tips, tricks, odds and math

I'm working on a system based on line movement/public perception/closing line value all while trying to offer tips, tricks, odds and math along the way. The thread is still it its infancy but has plans to cover OLV vs CLV, Kelly Criterion, probability theory, Bayesian, etc. but if this needs to be moved, feel free! I don't really care where it goes.

[dj_destroyer]

I agree with @Bsims but I didn't want to be the 1st person to criticise in this thread.

[dj_destroyer]

39-31-1 (+$385.67)

Ongoing:

Cowboys/Saints O45.5 [-115] $34.50 to win 30
Vikings +3 [-110] $11 to win 10
Panthers/Texans O46 [-110] $11 to win 10

Marc Diakiese [-140] $14 to win 10
Nicolas Dalby [+135] $10 to win 13.5

Mark Madsen/Wisconsin/Iowa/Clemson/Southern Miss [-204] $20.40 to win 10 Mark Madsen/Wisconsin/Iowa/Clemson/Southern Miss/Vanderbilt/SMU/Auburn [+262] $10 to win 26.20

Vanderbilt/SMU [-107] $10.70 to win 10
Auburn/Vanderbilt [-126] $12.60 to win 10 SMU/Auburn [-142] $14.20 to win 10

Bills +7.5 [-105] $10.50 to win 10

Juan Archuleta [+120] $20 to win 24

Adding:

2/3 + 3/3 [-121] $12.1 to win 10
Michal Oleksiejczuk [-240] Ticket without: [-348] $17.4 to win 5
David Benavidez [-848] Ticket without: [-158] $15.8 to win 10
A.J. McKee [-660] Ticket without: [-171] $17.1 to win 10

If people are so worried, plays are analyzed based on movement away from the opening in an effort to beat the closer. Right now, I simply follow sharp steam but the goal is to get the play selection time closer to the opening line as the system develops and refines. Right now, steam is needed but eventually the goal is to bet with the steam as it's happening or right before. Again, I have no problem where this goes. I read the sub-forum descriptions and this made the most sense to me. Realistically, I'd like the most unused/dead forum to post in as I don't do it for show, just to keep myself in line and discuss future opportunities.

[Bsims]

Just trying out a new system, seems to have a decent edge but like most systems, it is deeply flawed and I haven't figured out a few fundamental problems like when is the best time to bet, is my edge really what I think it is (how big of a sample is needed), is Kelly worth it and if so, fractional? I'm still always learning and open to discussion and ideas. Working with a $2k budget, betting 1-3% per.

Let me start the desired discussion with a couple of questions. Since you seem to make picks on multiple sports, do you have an automated system for identifying line movements (versus manually looking at line changes)? If so, do you scrape the lines on a regular schedule?

[dj_destroyer]

39-31-1 (+$385.67)

Ongoing:

Cowboys/Saints O45.5 [-115] $34.50 to win 30
Vikings +3 [-110] $11 to win 10
Panthers/Texans O46 [-110] $11 to win 10

Marc Diakiese [-140] $14 to win 10 ✅
Nicolas Dalby [+135] $10 to win 13.5 ✅

Mark Madsen/Wisconsin/Iowa/Clemson/Southern Miss [-204] $20.40 to win 10 ✅

Mark Madsen/Wisconsin/Iowa/Clemson/Southern Miss/Vanderbilt/SMU/Auburn [+262] $10 to win 26.20 ✅

Vanderbilt/SMU [-107] $10.70 to win 10 ✅
Auburn/Vanderbilt [-126] $12.60 to win 10 ✅

SMU/Auburn [-142] $14.20 to win 10 ✅

Bills +7.5 [-105] $10.50 to win 10

Juan Archuleta [+120] $20 to win 24 ❌

Adding:

2/3 + 3/3 [-121] $12.1 to win 10 ❌
Michal Oleksiejczuk [-240] Ticket without: [-348] $17.4 to win 5 ✅
David Benavidez [-848] Ticket without: [-158] $15.8 to win 10 ❌
A.J. McKee [-660] Ticket without: [-171] $17.1 to win 10 ❌

8-4 (+$29.7)
47-35-1 (+$410.37)

$80 swing with Michal Oleksiejczuk losing to a journeyman by submission but them the punches and you gotta roll with them.
Nothing overnight, see ya tomorrow.

[dj_destroyer]

Let me start the desired discussion with a couple of questions. Since you seem to make picks on multiple sports, do you have an automated system for identifying line movements (versus manually looking at line changes)? If so, do you scrape the lines on a regular schedule?

Haven't automated anything yet. I have a colleague who runs a scraping website already and I'm trying to work with him but he seems very reluctant to give out his scripts without some kind of double-fault protection that I don't turn around and sell them. Rather, I try to focus on only one kind of movement (steam) and if you check my lines vs. closing lines, I've been identifying correctly. I'm betting at books notorious for slow moving lines which helps and I'm sure I'll get limited or booted soon enough if it keeps working.


For example, for NFL plays tomorrow:

Cowboys/Saints O45.5 [-115] *line is now 47

Vikings +3 [-110] *line dropped to 1.5, 1 and even PK in some joints.

Panthers/Texans O46 [-110] *all the way up to 47.5/48

Bills +7.5 [-105] *line is same but odds moved to -115 or worse

[dj_destroyer]

47-35-1 (+$410.37)


Ongoing:


Cowboys/Saints O45.5 [-115] $34.50 to win 30

Vikings +3 [-110] $11 to win 10

Panthers/Texans O46 [-110] $11 to win 10

Bills +7.5 [-105] $10.50 to win 10


Adding:


Chargers+Bills $10 to win 33.28

Chargers+Juventus/Bayer Leverkusen DRAW $10 to win 42.04

Chargers+Lokomotiv Moscow/Atletico Madrid DRAW $10 to win 33.28

[dj_destroyer]

Adding:

Los Angeles FC/Minnesota United DRAW [+310] $10 to win 31

[dj_destroyer]

47-35-1 (+$410.37)
Ongoing:
Cowboys/Saints O45.5 [-115] $34.50 to win 30 ❌
Vikings +3 [-110] $11 to win 10 ❌
Panthers/Texans O46 [-110] $11 to win 10 ❌
Bills +7.5 [-105] $10.50 to win 10 ✅

Adding:

Chargers+Bills $10 to win 33.28 ❌
Chargers+Juventus/Bayer Leverkusen DRAW $10 to win 42.04
Chargers+Lokomotiv Moscow/Atletico Madrid DRAW $10 to win 33.28
Los Angeles FC/Minnesota United DRAW [+310] $10 to win 31 ✅

2-4 (-$25.5)

49-39-1 (+$384.87)

Cowboys+Chiefs [-121] $12.10 to win 10
Falcons/Texans U49 [-110] $22 to win 20

[dj_destroyer]

Adding:

Juventus/Bayer Leverkusen DRAW [+365] $10 to win 36.5

[dj_destroyer]

Adding:

Senators [+254] $10 to win 25.4

[dj_destroyer]

Adding:

Cardinals [+135] $10 to win 13.5
Nationals [+160] $10 to win 16
Flames/Avs O6 [-120] $12 to win 10

Will tally last couple days next post

[dj_destroyer]

49-39-1 (+$384.87)

Chargers+Juventus/Bayer Leverkusen DRAW $10 to win 42.04 ❌

Chargers+Lokomotiv Moscow/Atletico Madrid DRAW $10 to win 33.28 ❌

Juventus/Bayer Leverkusen DRAW [+365] $10 to win 36.5 ❌

Senators [+254] $10 to win 25.4 ❌

Ongoing:

Cowboys+Chiefs [-121] $12.10 to win 10
Falcons/Texans U49 [-110] $22 to win 20

Cardinals [+135] $10 to win 13.5

Nationals [+160] $10 to win 16

Flames/Avs O6 [-120] $24 to win 20

0-4 (-$40)

49-43-1 (+$344.87)

Adding:

Temple/Dallas Stars +1.5 [-150] $15 to win 10

[dj_destroyer]

49-43-1 (+$344.87)


Ongoing:

Cowboys+Chiefs [-121] $12.10 to win 10

Falcons/Texans U49 [-110] $22 to win 20

Cardinals [+135] $10 to win 13.5 ✅

Nationals [+160] $10 to win 16 ❌

Flames/Avs O6 [-120] $24 to win 20 ✅
Temple/Dallas Stars +1.5 [-150] $15 to win 10 ✅

3-1 (+$33.5)

52-44-1 (+$378.37)

Lorenz Larkin [+165] $10 to win 16.5
Potter/Pitolo O1.5 [+150] $10 to win 15

Maryland+South Florida+Memphis+Miami+Minnesota+SMU+Oreg on+Washington $20 to win 56.92

Ole Miss+San Diego State+UAB $10 to win 14.11
Ole Miss+San Diego State+Louisville $10 to win 17.83
Ole Miss+Louisville+UAB $10 to win 16.78
San Diego State+UAB+Louisville $10 to win 16.06

[dj_destroyer]

Adding:

To win Stanley Cup (Pinata):

Avs [+2500] $10 to win 250
Leafs [+2500] $5 to win 125
Sharks [+2500] $5 to win 125
Ducks [+2500] $5 to win 125

[dj_destroyer]

Adding:

UNC+Ohio State+Boise State+Tony Johnson [+145] $10 to win 14.52

[dj_destroyer]

Blue Jackets [+147] $10 to win 14.70

[dj_destroyer]

Blue Jackets 1st Period +1.5 [-184] $46 to win 24.97
Andrey Koreshkov [-180] $18 to win 10

[dj_destroyer]

52-44-1 (+$378.37)
Avs [+2500] $10 to win 250

Leafs [+2500] $5 to win 125

Sharks [+2500] $5 to win 125

Ducks [+2500] $5 to win 125
Lorenz Larkin [+165] $10 to win 16.5 ✅
Potter/Pitolo O1.5 [+150] $10 to win 15
Maryland+South Florida+Memphis+Miami+Minnesota+SMU+Oreg on+Washington $20 to win 56.92
Ole Miss+San Diego State+UAB $10 to win 14.11
Ole Miss+San Diego State+Louisville $10 to win 17.83
Ole Miss+Louisville+UAB $10 to win 16.78
San Diego State+UAB+Louisville $10 to win 16.06

UNC+Ohio State+Boise State+Tony Johnson [+145] $10 to win 14.52

Blue Jackets [+147] $10 to win 14.70 ❌

Blue Jackets 1st Period +1.5 [-184] $46 to win 24.97 ✅

Andrey Koreshkov [-180] $18 to win 10 ❌

2-2 (+$13.47)

54-46-1 (+$391.84)
No added plays today.