Week 3 NFL Best Bets: A number we like on each game
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Every Friday during the season, ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh, Doug Kezirian and Preston Johnson, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Fantasy's Mike Clay and Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network will tell us what they like from Sunday's NFL slate:
Season ATS records:
Kezirian 5-2 (3-1 last week)
Youmans 6-2 (3-1)
Bearman 2-1-1 (1-1)
Clay 2-1 (0-1)
Fortenbaugh 3-4 (1-2)
Johnson 3-9 (1-4)
Note: Picks from Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Thursday night. 1 p.m. games
Johnson (teaser alert!): I used the Falcons in a six-point teaser with the Packers in Week 3. I like the prospects of moving the spread through the key numbers of 3 and 7 in a game I project the Falcons to win 50.5% of the time anyway. Historically, six-point teasers through these key numbers are a profitable proposition, and I'm not giving up hope on a Falcons team that outgained the Eagles 6.0 yards per play to 4.0 on Sunday night. The defense held its own in the home opener, and while the Colts broke off a long run late in their Week 2 game to beat the Titans 19-17, I haven't been too impressed by anything their offense is bringing to the table under Jacoby Brissett.
Pick: Atlanta +7.5 in two-team, six-point teaser with Green Bay -1.5
Fortenbaugh: If Nelson Agholor was half the receiver the Eagles thought they were getting when selecting him out of USC in the first round in 2015, the Falcons would be 0-2 and head coach Dan Quinn would likely be close to updating his LinkedIn profile. As it stands, Atlanta is 1-1 and set to leave its comfort zone for a Week 3 clash with a feisty Indianapolis club. The key here is to remember that the Falcons are a much different team at home than on the road. Case in point: Atlanta at home in 2018 averaged 29.5 points per game (seventh) and 6.5 YPP (first); on the road in 2018 Atlanta averaged 22.2 PPG (16th) and 6.2 YPP (11th). The Falcons are 1-5 against the spread over their past six road games dating to last season.
Pick: Colts -1.5
Clay:Calvin Ridley has been under this line in 11 of 18 career games, including one of two in 2019. Though his playing time is up this season, Ridley (73 routes run) remains third in line for routes among Atlanta's wide receivers behind Mohamed Sanu (83) and Julio Jones (79). Ridley is averaging only 6.0 targets per game so far in his young career, and an above-average 10.9 yards average depth of target (14.9 in 2019) will make it tough to sustain a high catch rate. The Colts, by the way, allowed 169 receptions to wide receivers last season (second-fewest) and have surrendered 24 so far in 2019 (11th-fewest). Ridley is a good bet to be in the four-to-five-catch range, so +105 makes for a strong bet.
Fortenbaugh: The Ravens gave the Chiefs all they could handle at Kansas City last season before eventually falling 27-24 in overtime. That showdown resulted in Kansas City's second-lowest point total of the season and Patrick Mahomes' second-worst QB rating of the regular season (89.2). Remember, last season's tilt was just the fourth career start for Lamar Jackson, who was running Marty Mornhinweg's suspect offensive system rather than Greg Roman's current upgrade. Don't be shocked if the Ravens win this game outright. After all, Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh got his start as Andy Reid's special-teams coach in Philadelphia and knows the Kansas City boss about as well as anybody.
Johnson: I broke this matchup down in our betting first look Monday, when the total was sitting at 42. I bet the over, but with it moving up to 44 now across the market, a portion of that edge is eliminated and I recommend only a smaller bet. I still think there is an upside to this Bengals offense under new head coach Zac Taylor, however.
In Week 1, Cincinnati went into Seattle and averaged 6.1 YPP and Andy Dalton threw for 418 yards on 35-of-51 passing. The offense wasn't as crisp in Week 2 against the 49ers, and the second-worst defense in the NFL last season showed as the Bengals gave up 41 to San Francisco on 8.4 YPP. Similar to getting out in front of the Cowboys' overs the past few weeks, I like the prospect of betting Cincinnati overs while the number is still relatively low. The Bengals are passing at the highest frequency in the league (75.6%), and they led for the majority of that Seahawks game). Plus Buffalo's offense projects to have its way with Cincinnati's defense.
Pick: Small bet on over 44
Fortenbaugh (teaser alert!): The Bills will receive a hero's welcome at New Era Field in their home debut Sunday after producing back-to-back road victories for the first time in franchise history to commence the 2019 campaign. A year after ranking second in the NFL in total defense, the Bills have surrendered 30 total points through the first two games of the season and are primed to exploit a sloppy Cincinnati program that is tied for third in the league in turnovers.
Johnson (teaser alert!): I've been selling the Broncos since the offseason, and I have no reason to back down now. It's clear that Joe Flacco isn't as impactful under center as he once was, and he doesn't have many weapons to help him, either. Making a visit to Lambeau Field to take on the new and improved Green Bay defense isn't optimal. (I wrote about buying the Packers to win the NFC as high as +1000 last week here.) Similar to the Falcons teaser leg, we are getting inherent value teasing the Packers through key numbers down from -7.5 to -1.5, and I think this spread should be -8.4 anyway. Here's to the Packers improving to 3-0.
Pick: Green Bay -1.5 in two-team, six-point teaser with Atlanta +7.5
Fortenbaugh (teaser alert!): As for Flacco and the Broncos ... well, they're Flacco and the Broncos. I don't envision them moving the football all that much against an upgraded Green Bay defensive unit that is currently permitting an average of just 5.4 YPP (12th in the NFL). Flacco and the Denver offense currently rank 22nd in the NFL in yards per play.
Youmans: It's not time to panic in Philadelphia. When the offense is fully loaded -- and assuming Carson Wentz stays healthy -- the Eagles will be fine. But the Lions are catching them at the right time. Eagles coach Doug Pederson canceled Wednesday's practice to rest his banged-up team. Wentz will be missing his top deep threat in wideout DeSean Jackson (abdominal strain) and might also be without Alshon Jeffery and tight end Dallas Goedert (calf injuries). Tight end Zach Ertz (ribs) is also hurting, and defensive tackles Malik Jackson and Tim Jernigan are out with foot injuries. Wentz is only averaging 6.6 yards per pass attempt (23rd).
It's sometimes difficult to bank on Matthew Stafford, yet he's off to a strong start with 315 passing yards per game and 8.4 yards per attempt. Philadelphia's 31st-ranked pass defense (340 YPG) was lit up by the Redskins' Case Keenum in Week 1. Aside from a late breakdown in Arizona, Detroit's defense has been solid (18.5 PPG). The best number (7) is gone, but this still is a play on a 'dog that has a decent shot to win outright.
Johnson: Kellen Moore's run-pass option offense came through yet again Sunday. Dak Prescott followed up his 405-yard, four-touchdown performance in the opener with 269 yards and three touchdowns through the air on 26-of-30 passing in Week 2. He also added 69 yards on the ground to go with Ezekiel Elliott's 111. The Giants' and Redskins' defenses might very well be below average relative to the rest of the NFL this season, but what does that make the Dolphins? After giving up 102 points through their first two games, there probably isn't a better matchup to ride the Dallas overs train again than Miami in Week 3.
Kezirian: Sometimes we overthink things. The Jets, relegated to a third-string quarterback, are facing one of the league's top defenses with perhaps the top secondary. Luke Falk looked inept Monday, and while he might be a little more comfortable with a full week of practice, he was still a third-stringer for a reason. Additionally, as we just saw against Miami, New England is capable of starting strong against a weak opponent and not letting up. Bill Belichick won't ease up, particularly against a division rival. New England hasn't allowed a touchdown in its first two games, and I don't see how this Jets team changes that.
Kezirian: After an outlier opening-night victory on Monday Night Football, the real Raiders finally showed up. Obviously Mahomes can make any defense look bad, but this goes beyond that. Oakland's offense is limited and mustered only 10 points (none after the first quarter) against Kansas City's leaky defense. The Vikings have a stout front and should limit Oakland's running game. That will force Derek Carr to rely on the passing game, and his inconsistency will only complicate matters. Covering this big number might get a little tricky, given Mike Zimmer's conservative style and commitment to the run game. However, I really anticipate Oakland will struggle offensively.
Bearman: I like the Cardinals here and am officially off the Panthers bandwagon after picking them the first two weeks. I grabbed Arizona with Sunday night's opening lines at +3.5 (pre-Cam Newton news) after watching how awful the Panthers' offense was Thursday, and have been impressed with what Kyler Murray has been able to do in the past six quarters. The Air Raid isn't all there yet, but Murray has developed a good connection with future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald and should be able to hold his own against the Panthers. Without Newton, the Cardinals will likely end up a slight favorite, and I'd be OK up to -2 vs. Kyle Allen.
Pick: Cardinals up to -2.
Clay:David Johnson cleared this line six times last season despite an extremely rough campaign in which he averaged only 3.6 yards per carry. Johnson put up 82 rushing yards against Detroit in Week 1, but only 14 yards in a pass-heavy affair at Baltimore in Week 2. Back at home this weekend, Johnson is a good bet to get back on track against a Carolina defense that has allowed 241 yards (fifth-most) on 53 carries (fourth-most) to running backs this season. Johnson has handled at least 70% of Arizona's carries in both games this season after handling a massive 76% during his previous two full seasons (2016, 2018). With a better game script likely in Week 3, expect Johnson to be closer to 72 yards.
Bearman:As you read in Preston's Week 3 lookahead, he suggested buying the Tampa Bay defense -- and I agree. The Bucs largely shut down an improved 49ers offense in Week 1 (San Francisco scored two defensive touchdowns and had only two drives of over 50 yards) and completely shut down the Panthers last Thursday night. Now they host rookie Daniel Jones in his first start for a Giants team averaging 15.5 points per game. Should the New York offense be better with Jones? In theory, yes. But how much have you seen from QB Jameis Winston and the Bucs' offense that has excited you? Their 4.7 YPP and 292 total yards per game both rank near the bottom of the NFL. Advantage to the under.
Pick: Under 48
Kezirian:Eli Manning wasn't the solution, but he isn't the problem, either. New York's issues go far beyond the quarterback position. The Giants have a horrendous secondary and weak wide receiver group (even when healthy). Jones succeeded in the preseason, but that came against vanilla defenses that don't actually blitz. This Sunday will be much different. I like the Bucs in this spot. Tampa Bay is actually in the mix for the division title, following its upset in Carolina and the injury to the Saints' Drew Brees.
Youmans:Philip Rivers is still grinding and gutting it out, but the Chargers' offensive line is struggling and some big-play potential is missing without running back Melvin Gordon and tight end Hunter Henry. Rivers has been intercepted twice and sacked five times in two down-to-the-wire games. This should be another nail-biter, and this is not a positive recent spot for Rivers, who is 2-5-1 ATS as a home favorite since the beginning of last season.
Deshaun Watson traded shots with Drew Brees in a Superdome shootout in Week 1, so there's no reason to doubt him here. The Texans have been tough on the road, going 5-4 SU in their past nine, with only one loss by more than three points (27-20 at New England in the 2018 season opener). Caesars is one of the few books offering the hook on top of the field goal, so take the points.
Pick: Texans +3.5
Johnson: The impact of injuries piling up on the offensive side of the ball for the Chargers was fully evident Sunday in Detroit. Los Angeles' defense was fantastic and held the Lions to only 13 points, but Rivers and the offense managed only 10. The Chargers play at one of the slowest paces in the league, and without Henry or a healthy Mike Williams, the passing game takes a major hit. Without Gordon in the picture and having to field a depleted offensive line, I'm not sure where Los Angeles turns for consistent offense in Week 3 against a stout Houston defense. With the anticipation of a slower-paced game and lack of weapons on the field offensively, my projection comes in at 45.8. Give me the under.
Johnson:Russell Wilson's rushing prop total stands out at 17.5 yards. For starters, my projection for Wilson is 27.8 rushing yards, and in his career, he has averaged 5.62 yards per rushing attempt and runs the ball 5.75 times per game. Against a Saints defense that ranked No. 1 in the NFL against the run in 2018 (3.5 yards per attempt), Seattle might be forced to throw the ball more (which could lead to more scrambling opportunities for Wilson). The Seahawks could also design quarterback running options occasionally throughout the game to open things up as well. Everything points to an over lined at 17.5.
Youmans: The Steelers' rating has dropped about six points, but oddsmakers are overestimating the drop-off from Ben Roethlisberger to Mason Rudolph. Big Ben was simply bad against the Patriots and Seahawks (56.5% completions, 5.7 yards per attempt, zero TDs) before going down with a season-ending elbow injury. Rudolph, who passed for two touchdowns in relief last weekend, could actually spark the offense. It helps that running back James Conner is reportedly ready to play Sunday.
The addition of safety Minkah Fitzpatrick via trade with Miami might be questioned in the big picture, but Fitzpatrick should provide an immediate boost to a defense that desperately needs his talent. San Francisco seems overvalued after road wins against weak offensive teams (Cincinnati and Tampa Bay), so this is a better situation than it appears for Pittsburgh. Teams that started 0-2 ATS and hit the road in Week 3 went 4-1 ATS last season and 3-1 ATS in 2017. Roethlisberger was being rated like an elite quarterback, but that was no longer the truth. With their backs to the wall, the Steelers are probably undervalued after twice burning the betting public.
Fortenbaugh: Coach Freddie Kitchens and quarterback Baker Mayfield have produced a grand total of 36 points through two games against preseason afterthoughts (Tennessee and the New York Jets). For comparison's sake, Mahomes and the Chiefs hung 28 points on the Raiders at Oakland during the second quarter of Sunday's 18-point victory. The moral of the story here is that Cleveland's offense, despite the addition of watch aficionado Odell Beckham Jr., isn't anywhere close to what many thought it would be entering the season. Meanwhile, Aaron Donald and the Rams' defense currently rank seventh in the NFL in opponent yards per play (4.9) and should be able to counter the long travel with the fact that the Browns are operating on a short week after Monday night's victory in New Jersey against the Jets.
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