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Week 2 NFL Best Bets 🏈
Week 2 NFL Best Bets: A number we like on each game
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Every Friday during the season, ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh, Doug Kezirian and Preston Johnson, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Fantasy's Mike Clay and Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network will tell us what they like from Sunday's NFL slate:
Season ATS records:
Youmans: 3-1
Bearman: 1-0-1
Kezirian: 2-1
Fortenbaugh: 2-2
Clay: 1-1
Johnson: 2-5
Note: Picks from Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Thursday night.
1 p.m. games
New England Patriots (-18.5, 49) at Miami Dolphins
Johnson: I wrote Monday that I would be reluctantly backing the Dolphins if this line reached +17 or higher, and sure enough it blitzed right through the 17 and is sitting at 18.5. Prior to Week 1, I would have lined this game Patriots -13.5 on a neutral field, but this game is in Miami. If I thought a point spread of roughly -11 was fair for this Week 2 matchup, how much am I adjusting after their performances on Sunday? One of the biggest mistakes a bettor can make is overreacting to results in Week 1.
The Dolphins' roster is still filled with professional football players. After making nearly a five-point adjustment to my projections, I still line this game Patriots -15.8 myself. The value is there relative to the market number, and if there is any dignity in the Miami locker room we should get a team fighting to avoid embarrassment for the second straight week.
Pick: Dolphins +18.5
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-3, 43.5)
Kezirian: I was impressed with Indy's performance against the Chargers. The Colts could've won the game if Adam Vinatieri made some field goals. However, Tennessee also impressed me with a dominating win in Cleveland and the Colts have to play back-to-back road games. I realize the Titans have a mediocre offense, but this is a good spot for them to lay only three points.
Pick: Titans -3
Johnson: This game falls under a betting angle that has been extremely profitable in recent seasons: Betting against a team beginning the season with back-to-back road games (Indianapolis in this case) is 14-1 against the spread since 2015.
This is significant because 2015 is the year the CBA made offseason conditioning less intense. Teams aren't as conditioned early in the season as they have been in the past, and the lengthy travel in back-to-back weeks takes its toll. Those teams lost games by an average of 8.4 points in this spot and missed the spread by 6.5 points. Tennessee certainly didn't disappoint in its opener in Cleveland, and I'm thrilled to back this defense in a really difficult spot for the Colts and Jacoby Brissett.
Pick: Titans -3
Note: Other teams I've bet this week that are hosting a team making a second consecutive road trip to start the season: Giants, Bengals and Raiders.
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, 47.5) at Detroit Lions
Johnson: I bet the Chargers under last week against the Colts and considered going back to the well here. We were one stop with Los Angeles leading 24-16 in the final minute of the game from cashing the under, and with the injuries piling on (Hunter Henry fractured his left knee), I don't anticipate the Chargers' offense to be too effective. They also play at one of the slowest paces in the NFL.
The problem I am running into, however, is that with a decimated offensive line and no Melvin Gordon in the backfield, the Chargers didn't run the football very often in Week 1. They ran the football on 35 percent of their snaps (and they played with a lead for the majority of the game). Compared to last season, they attacked on the ground 41.15% of the time, which was league-average. The lack of expected rushing attempts means more passing plays, more plays being run and, ultimately, more points. At this point -- even with my initial projection at just 45.2 -- I'm treading cautiously.
Pick: Pass
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-3, 43.5)
Bearman: The Vikings looked great and the Packers snuck by the Bears in Week 1, so hop all over the Vikings getting points, right? As our Lee Corso would say, not so fast my friends. Including the playoffs, the Packers are 8-2 ATS and 7-2-1 SU against the Vikings at home with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. Rodgers rises to the occasion at home when the Pack are projected to be in a tight game. Green Bay is 21-8-1 (.724) ATS when the Packers are favored by 7 or less at home when Rodgers starts (including games as a 'dog). As for the Vikings, since 2016, 1-0 teams are 5-18 ATS on the road in Week 2. The Packers are flying under the radar this year with a new coach, and I like them here.
Pick: Packers -3
Buffalo Bills (-1.5, 44) at New York Giants
Youmans: The Giants have serious deficiencies on defense, and several holes were exposed in Dallas as Dak Prescott passed for 405 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions or sacks. But the Cowboys have more weapons than the Bills, and Josh Allen is not a passer on Prescott's level. It might be easy to forget Buffalo's offense did not find the end zone in the first three quarters of a 17-16 victory over the Jets. The Bills have a top-shelf defense, but so do the Cowboys, who allowed the Giants total 470 yards on 7.1 yards per play.
New York made costly mistakes in key situations, often suffering from poor play-calling, and Saquon Barkley will get more touches after rushing for 120 yards on only 11 carries. Eli Manning showed encouraging signs, hitting on 30 of 44 passes for 306 yards while getting sacked only once, and it's obvious his offensive line is improved. For what it's worth, Manning is 7-0-1 ATS in his career as a 'dog against AFC East opponents.
The perception of the Bills is inflated after their comeback win, while the Giants are being downgraded a little too much after failing in a difficult road opener. The lookahead line for Week 2 showed the Giants as 1.5-point favorites over the Bills, who are playing in MetLife Stadium for the second week in a row -- but now the Bills are in the favorite's role. I like New York here.
Pick: Giants +1.5
San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2, 46)
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Bearman: Preston already hit on the awesome stat of fading teams that open the season with back-to-back road games. Looking into the box score from last week, the Niners struggled to move the ball against Tampa Bay, scoring two of their three TDs off the arm of Bucs QB Jameis Winston. Tevin Coleman's injury won't help. Not that I love the Bengals, but they did hold Russell Wilson and the Seahawks to 232 total yards and Andy Dalton carved up Seattle's secondary for 418 yards passing. They will need to get the run game going regardless of Joe Mixon's availability.
Having to lay less than a field goal at home is a decent price (although, as referenced in Preston's earlier article, it opened with the Bengals getting points, so it lost some value).
Pick: Bengals -2
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4, 47)
Johnson: Entering the season, I thought Pittsburgh was generally undervalued in the market. It was understandable with the hype surrounding the Browns and Ravens within the division, but thanks to a 30-point loss in New England, we get the opportunity to buy low on this Steelers team. Only one team in the NFL ranked top-six in both offensive yards per play and defensive yards per play last season: Pittsburgh. It took some misfortune for the Steelers to miss the playoffs altogether, but they've been generally overlooked.
The Seahawks escaped 21-20 at home in their home opener against the Bengals, but it was a misleading final score. Cincinnati outgained Seattle 429 yards to 233 despite losing the game. And Seattle hasn't performed well on the road in Weeks 1 and 2; since 2007, the Seahawks are 1-13-1 ATS. I was bearish on the Seahawks entering the season regardless (I'm on under nine season wins), so with my projection of Steelers -5.6, I'm thrilled to take the -3.5 in a spot that has hit at a 55% rate the past 30 years (backing the team following a 30-point loss).
Pick: Steelers -3.5
Dallas Cowboys (-5.5, 46.5) at Washington Redskins
Johnson: The new-look RPO offense for Dallas under first-year offensive coordinator Kellen Moore was magnificent in Week 1. The downfall of the Cowboys' offense has always been the suspect playcalling from from head coach Jason Garrett. He deserves credit for putting his ego in his back pocket and handing the reins to Moore, as it already resulted in Prescott throwing for 405 yards and four touchdowns in the best opening-day quarterback performance in franchise history.
The Redskins, on the other hand, just managed to gain 6.9 yards per play in Philadelphia this past Sunday. For context, the Chiefs led the NFL last season gaining 6.7 YPP. Similar to the Eagles, the Cowboys defensively rush four and play zone behind their front. Case Keenum is going to be seeing more of the same in this Week 2 matchup, and I want to get out in front of a potential run of Dallas overs after the seeing the rejuvenated and reconstructed offensive system.
Pick: Over 46.5
Arizona Cardinals at Baltimore Ravens (-13, 46)
Kezirian: I'll know within a few minutes whether this is a good bet. Rookie Kyler Murray may have worked out some early jitters and found his groove in the fourth quarter last week with two touchdown drives. Then again, he may have experienced success only because Detroit turned to a prevent defense. Either way, I think Baltimore's defense is not as strong as it looked against a pathetic Miami team in Week 1. The Cardinals should have enough offense for three scores, although the early time slot does slightly concern me.
Pick: Cardinals team total over 16 points (-108, FanDuel)
Fortenbaugh: If you didn't notice it last Sunday when the Cardinals surrendered an astronomical 477 total yards and 27 points to an average-at-best Lions offense, you'll see if first-hand in Week 2 when Baltimore exposes Arizona as one of the worst defenses in the league. Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury hired Vance Joseph this past offseason to run his defense. That's the same Vance Joseph who oversaw the league's 29th-ranked defense in 2016 as the defensive coordinator in Miami before inheriting a Denver defense in 2017 that he turned from an elite, top-five unit into a squad that ranked 22nd in scoring defense just one year later. Remember: Patrick Peterson is suspended for the first six games this season. Expect the points to come in bunches at M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday.
Pick: Over 46 points
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-8.5, 43)
Fortenbaugh: This is a massive point spread for a game featuring a total of just 43 points, especially when you consider the fact the Texans opened -3 vs. Jacksonville on the look-ahead line prior to the start of Week 1. I understand the switch from an injured Nick Foles to rookie Gardner Minshew will have an impact on the line, but nearly six points for Foles? After all, Minshew completed a staggering 22 of 25 passes for 275 yards and two touchdowns in place of Foles on Sunday against Kansas City, so it's not like he's some useless bum. Note that the road team is 11-4-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings between these AFC South rivals.
Pick: Jaguars +8.5
Johnson (teaser alert!): While Minshew's debut was impressive on the surface (22-of-25 passing for 275 yards and two touchdowns), it came against a Kansas City defense that was already sitting on a substantial lead. Teasing -8.5 through multiple key numbers to get to -2.5 is positive expected value anyway, and I'm perfectly fine picking a spot against a likely overhyped rookie quarterback on the road (at Houston).
Pick: Texans -2.5 in two-team, six-point teaser with Falcons +7.5
4 p.m. games
Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 54) at Oakland Raiders
Kezirian (teaser alert!): I am not ready to buy the Raiders as a legitimate threat in the AFC West. Yes, it was a spirited effort by a team that just lost Antonio Brown, but Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs a completely different animal than Joe Flacco and a pedestrian Denver offense. I do have some concerns with a Chiefs defense that just allowed a rookie in Minshew to connect on 22 of 25 pass attempts. Tyreek Hill will miss this game, but I have faith that KC has enough to at least win the game.
Pick: Chiefs -1 in a two-team, six-point teaser with Browns PK
Chicago Bears (-2.5, 40.5) at Denver Broncos
Youmans: A scheduling advantage is working for the Bears, who opened on a Thursday and have four more days to prepare. After a pathetic three-point debut, Chicago coach Matt Nagy needs the extra time to fix his offense. The Broncos' edge is just as obvious -- new coach Vic Fangio, the Bears' defensive coordinator last year, knows Mitchell Trubisky's weaknesses and should have a smart plan of attack ready. Fangio likely had an eye on this Week 2 matchup all summer.
Denver defensive ends Bradley Chubb and Von Miller -- strangely quiet with no QB hits Monday night in Oakland -- will put the heat on Trubisky, who can't pass with much accuracy from the pocket and does not release the ball as quickly as Derek Carr. Denver has won seven straight home openers.
Two interesting totals trends: The Broncos have stayed "under" in 10 consecutive games, and the Bears have gone "under" in six straight. With 41 being a key totals number, wait to see if the total ticks up from 40.5.
Pick: Broncos +2.5 (and under 41; no play at 40.5)
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-2, 52)
Kezirian: I realize the Saints are upset the referees potentially cost them a spot in the Super Bowl and want revenge. But are we supposed to believe they care more than the Rams about winning this game? I don't buy that false narrative. I think New Orleans is an awesome team at home, but Drew Brees is not the same on the road. Since 2015, his QBR is more than 10 points lower outdoors than indoors and he averages 65 fewer passing yards per game. This feels like a cheap number for the Rams at home.
Pick: Rams -2
8:20 p.m. game
Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5, 52) at Atlanta Falcons
Youmans: It was an ugly, but predictable opener for the Falcons, as the Minnesota defense was a bad matchup for Atlanta's weak offensive line. Matt Ryan ended up passing for 304 yards, but it was a deceiving number, considering he piled up a lot of garbage yards after trailing 28-0. This is a more favorable matchup for Ryan against a Philadelphia defense that allowed 370 yards through the air to the Redskins, who lack the elite wide receiver talent that Julio Jones & Co. possess. Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz is surrounded by playmakers and will be tough to contain, so that's the main concern. But there's typically some point-spread value with a quality team off a poor performance in Week 1, and that's the case with Atlanta. Ryan is 10-1 straight up and ATS in home openers, so go with the home 'dog in prime time.
Pick: Falcons +1.5
Johnson (teaser alert!): Most people are accustomed to hearing that teasers and parlays are for the fish -- and they generally are. However, in the NFL there are certain spots where they have been historically profitable. I broke down the art of the teaser last year in a piece here.
The Falcons were an unmitigated disaster in Week 1, and the majority of the reason was the offensive line's inability to give Ryan time in the pocket. The Vikings blitzed regularly on passing downs, and on the occasions when they sat back and rushed only four or five, Ryan tore them up (27-for-37 for 246 yards and two touchdowns). The Eagles' defense regularly rushes four and sits back in zone (we saw Keenum pass for 380 yards and three touchdowns in Philadelphia in Week 1), and the market has overreacted to Atlanta's poor showing to start the year, now making them a 1.5-point home underdog.
Pick: Falcons +7.5 in two-team, six-point teaser with Texans -2.5
Clay: Devonta Freeman had a rough Week 1, managing only 19 yards on eight carries on the road against a tough Vikings defense. Despite the rough start, we should still feel good about his chances of playing a big role, especially near the goal line at home against the Eagles this week. Prior to missing most of last season due to injury, Freeman racked up 29 rushing touchdowns (tied for most in the league) and 41 carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line (second-most) during the 2015-17 seasons. He ranked top-five in carries inside the 5 during all three seasons, adding six touchdown catches along the way. At +140, Freeman is a good bet to find pay dirt in Week 2.
Pick: Freeman to score a TD (+140)
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Originally Posted by Mr. Teaser
