Every Thursday during the season, Bill Connelly, Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian and Phil Steele will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for the second full week of the college football season:
Season ATS records: Connelly: 8-1 (2-1 last week)
Kezirian: 12-7 (5-3 last week)
Johnson: 8-8 (5-2 last week)
Steele: 6-11 (3-2 last week)
Note: Picks from Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Wednesday night. Saturday's games
Steele: Michigan was nearly a touchdown favorite in the Games of the Year lines this summer, but it now is getting slightly more than a field goal. In the opener against Middle Tennessee, the Wolverines gave up two short touchdown drives after fumbles and trailed early, but they won 40-21. And just like Army did versus Oklahoma last year, the Cadets took the Wolverines to overtime, and Michigan barely escaped. Oklahoma bounced back from that and made the College Football Playoff, and I expect a similar result from the Wolverines.
Last year, Michigan dominated the Badgers, leading 38-7 before allowing a late score. Wisconsin has been terrific so far but has faced two weak teams and takes a considerable step up in the level of competition. I look for Michigan to play its first complete game of the season and grab a big conference road win.
Johnson: I was about as pro-Wisconsin in the preseason as anybody, making wagers on the Badgers' over eight wins and +1500 to win the Big Ten. I thought Nebraska was overhyped and projected the Badgers to be the best team in the West division. However, this line is too high.
As bad as Michigan has looked in its first two games this season, Wisconsin shouldn't be laying over a field goal. Just a month ago, in the Games of the Year lookahead market, the Wolverines were laying anywhere from -5 to -6.5 in this matchup. I know that Wisconsin pounded USF and CMU to the tune of 110-0, but this is an overreaction. I'd like to see quarterback Jack Coan play a reputable defense before I anoint the Wolverines the second-best team in the conference. My projection is Wisconsin -1.2, so I'm taking the +3.5 with Michigan.
Kezirian: This game won't be close, but I expect the 49ers to score some points. Clemson's defense is awesome, but this is a classic spot for that unit to be flat, coming off a 41-6 win over Syracuse. Charlotte has an up-tempo offense, so I expect at least two scores, even if it requires garbage time.
Kezirian: This line surprises me. Oklahoma State has shown some offensive flashes, but this team is a couple of notches below Texas. The Pokes' most impressive win came at Oregon State, which isn't exactly a statement game. And for all the points the Cowboys have scored, their offense still has limitations with freshman QB Spencer Sanders. Meanwhile, their defense has been extremely leaky. Texas showed top-level quality with its loss to LSU and should win by double digits.
Kezirian: Look beyond the Stanford brand: This just isn't a very good football team. The Cardinal just got drilled by pass-happy teams (UCF and Southern California) in back-to-back games, and next they face an Oregon squad led by star quarterback Justin Herbert. Stanford has given up more than 1,000 total yards in its past two games, and I envision Herbert having a field day. The Ducks blew last year's game a couple of times, and now they're looking for blood on The Farm. Lay the points.
Connelly: This line feels like an overreaction to Boston College's 48-24 debacle against Kansas. And to be sure, it was an amazing debacle. But Rutgers has stayed within a touchdown of only three of its past 14 Power 5 conference opponents, and my SP+ ratings still project the Eagles as 10-point favorites. I'm terrified of BC's miserable defense, but Rutgers hasn't exactly proven that it can score points reliably. Plus, Scarlet Knights QB McLane Carter is listed as doubtful because of a concussion.
Connelly: It's tricky to call a giant line a "best bet" when it so frequently depends on when the favorite decides to call off the dogs. It's also tricky when the underdog is a team such as Rice, which plays at a snail's pace. But I'm feeling pretty good about this one for the following reasons:
1. Baylor beat a similarly bad team (UTSA) by 49 two weeks ago. 2. Rice just lost to a similarly good team (Texas) by 35. 3. SP+ projects Baylor as a 34.7-point favorite. That's a gap of nearly nine points between SP+ and the line. Even if Rice's tempo keeps it closer than that, are we talking nine points better here?
Connelly: This also feels like an overreaction to last week's Kansas-Boston College game. But WVU also scored a surprisingly easy win over an overrated ACC foe last week, beating NC State by 17, so those overreactions should cancel out if nothing else. West Virginia's run defense is, shall we say, lacking (129th in rushing success rate allowed), and that should keep things reasonably close against a Les Miles team. Still, the Mountaineers' offense showed major signs of life last week, and Kansas' defense isn't very good. SP+ projects the Mountaineers as 10.8-point favorites, and that sounds about right to me.
Pick: WVU -4
Johnson: As proud as I was to be a Kansas Jayhawks fan last week as a Boston College season wins under ticket holder, this is a fairly significant overreaction in the market to a game that I think should be lined closer to Mountaineers -7. WVU coach Neal Brown decided to go up-tempo on offense against NCST this past Saturday, and it was successful. Quarterback Austin Kendall threw for 272 yards and three touchdowns, and the team as a whole averaged 6.4 yards per carry. I do think that Les Miles is making a positive impact on the Kansas football program, and I never thought I would be selling high on the Jayhawks in Week 4 of the season, but this number is too low to pass up.
Steele: At the start of the season, I had San Diego State favored at home, and the Aztecs have played to my expectation level in the first three games, with their defense allowing just eight points and 248 yards per game. Last season, the Aztecs opened 6-1 but lost five key players and struggled down the stretch, going 4-4 in Mountain West play. Head coach Rocky Long usually saves his best for conference play and the previous six years is 40-10 straight-up in Mountain West play and an even more impressive 34-15-1 ATS.
The past six times that Long has been a home 'dog, he is 5-0-1 ATS, including upsets of Arizona State, Stanford and Boise State. I think the Aztecs are the stronger team, and they are at home.
Steele: Both teams have new head coaches, but Appalachian State was a dominant team in 2018 that lost its head coach to Louisville, and it hasn't been as dominant under first-year coach Eliah Drinkwitz. Charlotte had a 526-458 yardage edge at Appalachian State two weeks ago, and this is the Mountaineers' first road trip.
Mack Brown is an experienced, winning head coach, his team has bought in, and it has talent. The Tar Heels pulled comeback upsets in each of their first two games over South Carolina and Miami and last week came up just short. UNC is back at home and, unlike most Power 5 teams, probably feels like an underdog to a Group of 5 team that is 43-11 the past five years.
Steele: Betting the underdog in games involving Northwestern has gone 12-1-1 ATS in the regular season the past two seasons, with the only loss being when Stanford recovered a fumble in the end zone with 20 seconds left to win 17-7 at home as 6.5-point favorites. Pat Fitzgerald always has been a great underdog coach (and poor coach when favored), as he is 4-1-1 ATS in his past six tilts as a home 'dog, with three of those outright upsets.
Northwestern is the defending Big Ten West champion and is not only 26-9 SU in Big Ten play during the past four years but also on a current 15-1 SU in Big Ten regular-season play. Michigan State is just 3-10 ATS as an away favorite the past five years. Michigan State's offense has averaged only 13.3 points per game in its past 10 games versus Power 5 opponents and now must cover more than a TD on the road.
Steele: Two years ago, Bill Clark had a young squad that hadn't played football in two years. The Blazers opened slowly the first two games, then went 7-1 ATS their next eight games, covering by 14.3 points per game. Clark has a young team again this year, but it covered on the road against Akron and now is coming off a bye and at home. UAB is not only 13-0 SU at home since its return, but the Blazers are also 10-2-1 ATS and have allowed just 290 yards per game at home in that span. They have a blitzing defense that will face a similarly young South Alabama squad.
The Jaguars used two quarterbacks last week who combined to hit nine of 26 passes at home versus Memphis. South Alabama is 3-4 ATS on the road under coach Steve Campbell, losing by 30 points per game.
Johnson: This is another market overreaction that stands out to me in Week 4, as my projection is Syracuse -8.6. I'm aware the Orange have been trounced in their past two games against Clemson and Maryland, but they also beat a fairly respectable Liberty team in the season opener 24-0. (Liberty just beat Buffalo 35-17.) Tommy DeVito is certainly a step down from Eric Dungey at QB, but I still believe in Dino Babers and a program that returned a good amount of its production from the past couple of seasons.
Western Michigan deserves credit for beating Georgia State 57-10 this past Saturday, but it benefited from three red zone turnovers from the Panthers as well as a turnover on downs. It's probably a combination of the Broncos' performance in Week 3 and the lack of Syracuse firepower early that is giving us this number under a touchdown. I'm laying it.
Johnson: I was surprised to see this game bet down from +8.5 to +6.5 early this week. I'm assuming it means that Louisville quarterback Jawon Pass (questionable in Week 4) is playing, but even if he does, my projection for this game is FSU -8.5. The Seminoles brought in Jim Leavitt last week to help coach a defense that had struggled getting stops against UL-Monroe and Boise State. I thought his impact made an immediate difference this past Saturday against Virginia (with the best offense of that group). With the explosiveness of Kendal Briles' new offense and the Seminoles continually getting more accustomed to its intricacies, I anticipate a win and cover over an inferior Louisville squad with question marks at quarterback.
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