If you've caught the Daily Wager (weekdays at 6 p.m. ET on ESPNEWS) over the past month or so, you've probably seen my ugly mug advising you on the current slate of NFL player props available at Caesars Sportsbook.
As we worked through each of the league's 32 teams, there were several props that stood out as outstanding values. Of course, the lines have since moved on some of those great values (presumably because savvy viewers like yourself were jumping on them), but some great ones do still remain.
Below is a rundown of my favorite prop bets currently on the board. Remember, these lines can change any time without notice, so do as infomercials raised you to do and "act now!" Chargers QB Philip Rivers OVER 27.5 pass TDs (-110)
Projection: 29.5 passing TDs
Perhaps my favorite bet on the board, Rivers is a near shoo-in to clear 27 passing touchdowns. He's done so nine of the past 11 seasons, including each of the past six, and tossed 32 touchdowns in 2018. An NFL-high 78% of the Chargers' offensive touchdowns over the past seven seasons have come via passes. Rivers is as durable as they come; he's started every Chargers game since Week 1 of 2006. Eagles WR DeSean Jackson OVER 3.5 total TDs (+100)
Projection: 4.6 total TDs
Jackson's total touchdown line comes in shockingly low considering that the field-stretcher has eclipsed three touchdowns in nine of his 11 seasons. Even better, this one comes in at even money. In Tampa Bay last season, Jackson found the end zone five times despite only 47 touches. He's now part of an Eagles' offense that ranks sixth in the league in offensive touchdowns and third in passing touchdowns over the past two seasons. A premiere downfield playmaker, Jackson's 17.4 yards per reception (YPR) and 10.0 yards per target (YPT) are both tops in the NFL since he entered the league in 2008.Lions WR Kenny Golladay UNDER 1067.5 rec yards (-110)
Projection: 999 receiving yards
This line has already dropped quite a bit and comes in very close to Golladay's actual 2018 production (1,063 yards). Of course, Golladay produced this while spending a chunk of the season as Matt Stafford's only viable target. Marvin Jones and Kerryon Johnson missed roughly half of the season with injuries, Golden Tate was traded and rookie T.J. Hockenson wasn't yet on the roster. Golladay handled a 19% target share during Weeks 1-10, but that jumped to 29% the rest of the way with Jones out of the lineup. Golladay's projected total of 999 yards is fueled by a healthy 22% target share. The Lions' 6.7 YPA was ninth-worst in the NFL last season.
Kamara has been nothing short of a superstar (and fantasy stud) since entering the league in 2017. He ranked top-six among running backs in scrimmage yards both seasons but has yet to come close to 1,789 total yards. His totals during his first two pro seasons were 1,554 and 1,592 yards, respectively. Kamara keeps busy as a receiver (81 receptions both seasons), but has yet to clear 194 carries in a single campaign. His role could increase slightly in 2019, but Latavius Murray was signed to offset the loss of Mark Ingram. Chargers' Melvin Ingram+Joey Bosa OVER 16.5 sacks (-110)
Projection: 20.9 combined sacks Ingram recorded 7.0 sacks in 16 games and Bosa had 5.5 playing in only seven games last season. If we extrapolate Bosa's mark to a full season, we end up with a combined total of 19.5 sacks. Ingram has cleared 7.0 sacks each of the past four seasons and Bosa has recorded 28.5 sacks in 35 career games. Bosa, who wasn't fully healthy last season, is ready to roll for 2019 and joins Ingram to create arguably the league's best pass-rushing duo. A terrific secondary will only help buy them additional attack time.
Projection: 1,031 rushing yards Selected in the first round of April's draft, Jacobs is expected to handle the lion's share of Oakland's carries, with Jalen Richard remaining involved as a receiver. Eleven running backs were drafted in the first round from 2012-18. The average rushing yardage total of those players was 933.8, and seven of the 11 backs cleared 894 yards. Jacobs can make up yardage on his own, having broken one tackle for every 6.1 touches at Alabama last season (best among rookie RBs). The above yardage projection assumes 236 rookie-season carries.
This line (and juice) has moved pretty significantly over the past two weeks, but it's still a decent bet. Coleman has defied the odds in the touchdown department in recent seasons, as he's one of only five players with eight-plus offensive scores each of the past three seasons. Despite that impressive feat, Coleman has yet to clear six carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line in a single season and has three career end zone targets to his name. That lack of goal-line work will be tough to overcome over the long haul. 49ers running backs combined for nine touchdowns last season, and Coleman will need to share with Jerick McKinnon, Matt Breida and Kyle Juszczyk. Falcons RB Devonta Freeman OVER 8.5 total TDs (-120)
Projection: 10.8 total TDs This is another line that has moved quite a bit, but there's still some appeal. Freeman missed most of last season with an injury, but from 2015-17, his 29 rushing touchdowns were tied for most in the NFL and his 41 carries inside the 5-yard line were second-most. Freeman ranked top-five in carries inside the 5 each of those three seasons. And that's just rushing production; Freeman also produced six receiving touchdowns. Freeman could defer the occasional goal-line touch to 228-pound rookie Qadree Ollison, but primary backup Ito Smithshouldn't be a threat at 195 pounds. Smith managed only two carries inside the 5 last season.
Projection: 797 receiving yards Howard has had each of his first two NFL seasons cut short by injury, but he's healthy and positioned well for a third-year breakout. Howard's efficiency has been outstanding; he's paced the tight end position in both yards per target and yards per reception each of the past two seasons. He's also ranked top-three in average depth of target (aDOT) both seasons, which is obviously a good way to rack up a lot of receiving yards. In 10 games last season, Howard was on a 16-game pace of 904 yards, which is well above this line. Steelers RB James Conner UNDER 1130.5 rush yds (-110)
Projection: 1,034 rushing yards Conner is positioned for a strong 2019 campaign, but this is still an excessively high line for a player who posted 973 yards in 13 games while playing a hefty 77% of the Steelers' snaps last season. Some simple math tells us that playing all 16 games puts him on pace to clear 1130 yards, but (A) running backs are poor bets to appear in 16 games -- in fact, Conner has missed two-plus games during each of his two NFL seasons -- and (B) Conner is expected to defer more touches to backups Jaylen Samuels and rookie Benny Snell. Note that 1,140 rushing yards would've ranked sixth in the NFL last season. That's a high bar. Seahawks RB Chris Carson OVER 6.5 rush TDs (-110)
Projection: 9.1 rushing TDs The Seahawks operated the league's most run-heavy offense last season (49% run), and lead back Carson took advantage. Despite appearing in only 14 games, Carson ranked seventh in the league in both carries (247) and rushing touchdowns (nine). Even more relevant to this prop, Carson ranked fourth in carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line (13) and third in carries from 1-yard out (nine). Rashaad Penny will play a larger role this season, but Mike Davis is now in Chicago, so Carson shouldn't have trouble pushing past six rushing scores. Cowboys LB Leighton Vander Esch OVER 121.5 tackles (-120)
Projection: 140 total tackles This is a shockingly-low number for a player who racked up 140 tackles as a rookie while playing 78% of Dallas' defensive snaps. How good is 140 tackles? Consider that Vander Esch now ranks tied for 11th all-time in tackles by a rookie. Ahead of him on the list are Patrick Willis, Luke Kuechly, Darius Leonard, Kiko Alonso, DeMeco Ryans, Zach Thomas, Chris Spielman, C.J. Mosley, Jerrell Freeman and Duane Bickett. Yeah, that's impressive company. Vander Esch will need to fend off 33-year-old Sean Lee for snaps alongside Jaylon Smith this season, but there seemed to be a changing of the guard during the 2018 playoffs, as Vander Esch played 105 snaps to just 24 for Lee. Jaguars EDGE Josh Allen UNDER 6.5 sacks (-110)
Projection: 5.4 sacks Over the past decade, 161 first-round picks played at least one snap as a rookie. Only 15 reached 7.0 sacks (19 total edge rushers hit the mark). The average snap total for the 15 players was 691, which is notable because like his predecessor Dante Fowler, Allen will work behind starters Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue. Both players were on the field for over 75% of the team's 2018 snaps. Fowler, meanwhile, averaged 23 snaps per game and recorded 2.0 sacks during his seven games as the Jaguars' No. 3 edge rusher last season.
Patriots RB Sony Michel OVER 1009.5 rush yds (-110);
Michel 40-1 to lead NFL in rushing yds
Projection: 1,134 rushing yards
Double whammy here, as we get a pair of intriguing props for the Patriots' lead back. Consider: In 16 rookie-season games including the playoffs, Michel racked up 280 carries for 1,267 yards (the latter would've ranked third in the league during the regular season). Despite facing the league's second-highest rate of in-box defenders (7.1 per rush), Michel averaged 4.5 yards per carry, including 2.0 yards after contact. The Patriots shifted to a run-first offense last season (43% run) and called running plays on a whopping 76% of Michel's snaps. Michel's troublesome knee is a red flag, but he could miss a game or two and still hit the rushing yardage prop. At 40-to-1, he's also a strong dart throw to pace the league in rushing. Patriots QB Tom Brady OVER 4249.5 pass yds (-110)
Projection: 4,340 passing yards As noted, the Patriots shifted to a run-first offense last season, throwing the ball "only" 57% of the time. Still, Brady managed to throw for 4,355 yards, which is well above this 4,250 line. In fact, Brady has been over this line seven of the past eight seasons (assuming we extrapolate the 2016 suspension season to his standard 16 games). Brady, who hasn't missed a game due to injury since 2008, shouldn't have much trouble clearing this mark in an efficient, high-volume Patriots' offense.
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15 favorite NFL player props for 2019 🏈
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