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College Football Week 3 Football Power Index Edge vs Spread 🔢
Where FPI sees a Week 3 college football edge vs. the spread
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The betting market and our Football Power Index (FPI) often agree -- but not always. Each week we'll highlight some of the instances where our model significantly disagrees with the spread. We're looking at not only which side FPI feels is the right side but also why.
2019 ATS record: 4-9
2019 closing line value: 11-2
All lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Sept. 10.
Stanford Cardinal at UCF Knights (-7.5)
3:30 p.m. ET Saturday
FPI prediction: UCF by 14.3
It's unclear who will be starting at quarterback for UCF among Brandon Wimbush, Dillon Gabriel and Darriel Mack Jr., but I'm not sure how much it matters. Wimbush is the biggest name, but he has a PlayStation Player Impact Rating of just 28 (ouch).
The point is: There might not be reason to expect any of the quarterbacks to be much better than the others, and it's mostly the other players on UCF's offense -- especially the offensive line -- who should drive the unit's production.
Stanford's offense, on the other hand, is probably a shade underrated because FPI is unaware that Stanford was without K.J. Costello in its disappointing loss to USC last week. Had Costello missed more time, this would be a larger concern. But with him missing just one game, the effect is minor.
FPI pick: UCF -7.5
Washington State Cougars (-8.5) at Houston Cougars
9:15 p.m. ET Friday
FPI prediction: Washington State by 14.8
Is it time to worry about the Houston offense yet? Although the Cougars have put up more than 30 points in both of their contests, those games were against Oklahoma and ... Prairie View. Scoring only 37 on the latter dropped their offensive FPI rating by several points.
Meanwhile, D'Eriq King ranks 60th in Total QBR so far. It's early -- but still.
FPI pick: Washington State -8.5
Alabama Crimson Tide (-24.5) at South Carolina Gamecocks
3:30 p.m. ET Saturday
FPI prediction: Alabama by 15.6
If you're going to keep it remotely close with Alabama, you better have some corners. Fortunately, South Carolina has exactly that.
Since the start of 2018, when Israel Mukuamu and Jaycee Horn have both been on the field, South Carolina has allowed 6.6 yards per attempt. When neither were out there? 8.5. That translated to PlayStation Player Impact Ratings for the pair of 92 and 86, respectively, which means they're at least minor roadblocks for a Crimson Tide offense that isn't slowed by much. Of course, Tua Tagovailoa and Jerry Jeudy are both 99s in the rating system, but we're just asking South Carolina to keep it within 24 here.
One more thing: The Gamecocks' loss to North Carolina in Week 1 already doesn't look quite as bad after UNC beat Miami last week.
FPI pick: South Carolina +24.5
Army Black Knights (-17) at UTSA Roadrunners
3:30 p.m. ET Saturday
FPI prediction: Army by 12.1
Army's high-profile near-victory over Michigan has apparently made the Black Knights overrated, at least in FPI's mind. Although it played well on Saturday, Army's record the past two seasons looks a lot better than its actual opponent-adjusted efficiency (45th-best last season, 57th-best this season).
Also -- and this is just a guess rather than something FPI tells us explicitly -- presumably Army's triple-option offense is something of an equalizer against most opponents, which is a good thing against a team such as Michigan but perhaps a drawback when favored over UTSA.
FPI pick: UTSA +17
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-10.5) at Bowling Green Falcons
5 p.m. ET Saturday
FPI prediction: Louisiana Tech by 4.8
Bowling Green's 52-0 loss to Kansas State was ugly. But so was Louisiana Tech's 20-14 win over Grambling. That's one of FPI's strengths -- adjusting for opponent and not relying on the game result -- to draw conclusions.
Thus far this season, Bowling Green ranks 15th-worst in opponent-adjusted efficiency, but Louisiana Tech is 21st-worst. Take the home-field advantage and the points.
FPI pick: Bowling Green +10.5
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