[Hman]

2019 NBA Finals: Best bets for Warriors-Raptors Game

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The 2019 NBA playoffs are nearing their conclusion, but there are still plenty of betting opportunities every night. Our experts -- Joe Fortenbaugh, Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian and Jordan Schultz -- are here to give their best bets for every game of the NBA Finals.


All odds courtesy of Caesars.

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Sunday's Game 2


Golden State Warriors (+110) at Toronto Raptors (-130)

Game 2 line: Raptors -2
Game 2 over/under: 215
Fortenbaugh: Toronto put forth a spectacular performance against the Warriors in Game 1, but I don't consider Pascal Siakam's stellar shooting display (14-of-17 for 32 points) or Marc Gasol's outlier scoring explosion (20 points, highest of 19 postseason games) to be sustainable levels of production for the Raptors. Look for Golden State to make the necessary defensive adjustments after more than two days of film study following what was one of the organization's worst postseason defensive displays of the Steve Kerr era.


Case in point: The Raptors scored 26 points and shot a perfect 10-for-10 on 2-pointers in transition, which is the most transition points the Dubs have allowed in a playoff performance since Game 6 of last year's Western Conference finals against Houston.


I anticipate Stephen Curry and company increasing the pace, cutting down the turnovers and getting back on defense en route to a Game 2 victory.


Pick: Warriors +2


Schultz: The Warriors are not in must-win territory, but this feels pretty dang close to it. If the two-time defending champs return home 0-2, the pressure will drastically increase. Kerr had to remind his team to get back on defense in Game 1, but the message did not work. Toronto saw little resistance in the open floor en route to 24 fast-break points. That will not happen again. Nor will Klay Thompson, Curry and Draymond Green combine to shoot 6-of-28 on contested shots, as they did in Game 1. Expect much more off-the-ball movement for the Splash Brothers -- particularly a concerted effort to get Thompson a rhythm early and Curry clean looks with a spread floor and ball screens extending close to half court.


Take the points in this affair, but if you want to get a little greedy, I do believe the Warriors even this thing up before heading west.


Pick: Warriors +2


Kezirian: This is such an interesting game. If the Warriors win, they will become significant favorites -- likely larger than the original series price. Add the potential imminent return of Kevin Durant and you would figure this is a must-win for Toronto. However, I fully expect the Warriors to clean up their turnover issues (16 in Game 1). I am siding with the Warriors here, assuming Andre Iguodala plays. I have just seen them rise to the occasion too many times, so I will grab the points.


Pick: Warriors +2


Johnson: I don't show any value being offered in Game 2 unless the total gets bet down again like it did in Game 1 (I would play the over again at 213 or better). While a bounce back from the Warriors may seem inevitable, I don't think it is worth gambling on Iguodala's effectiveness after he suffered yet another leg injury at the end of Game 1. I generally believe Iguodala's impact on Golden State is understated, and it's especially compounded when the Warriors are already thin at the forward position with Durant out.


Add in that Iguodala is also their primary option to defend Kawhi Leonard, and this injury has potential to be extremely detrimental if he's noticeably hampered. The problem is that we won't really get a sense of how bad it is until we see him in Game 2. If he isn't able to defend or shoot to his norm (he hasn't made a 3-pointer since the Houston series ), then the Raptors absolutely deserve to be the home favorite. I'm staying away.


Pick: Pass

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NBA Finals series picks

Johnson: While it was gratifying to see Toronto ultimately come through and win the Eastern Conference, there was an obvious reason that I was only betting the Raptors to win the East and not the NBA championship. I probably won't be betting against the Warriors until the year 2030 at this rate. Even if Kevin Durant were to miss the entire series, my true price is the Warriors as a -285 favorite (74.0 percent implied win probability). I didn't want anything to do with needing an upset win in the NBA Finals, and I similarly wouldn't want to bother betting against Golden State at this point either.


Laying -300 when I make the line -285 is a wager with negative expected value, so that isn't in the cards. So where do I see value?


Steph Curry to win the Finals MVP award at -125 sticks out. I considered making a case for Draymond Greenat +600 since he will likely be a distributor on offense tallying triple-double type numbers as well as contributing to slowing Kawhi Leonard down defensively. However, I'd be genuinely surprised if they didn't give it to Curry if the Warriors win it all. In theory, it's a cheaper version of betting the Warriors to win it all. I don't anticipate we see Durant returning (or at least not soon enough to be in the conversation for Finals MVP), and Klay Thompson would just have to go supernova all series long. People already have forgotten that Curry just averaged 37/8/7 in the Western Conference finals. He's on a mission, and if you like Golden State to win the series anyway, then I think Curry at -140 is the best option available.



Kezirian: In my eyes, the Warriors (at full strength) are the greatest team in NBA history. However, with so much unknown surrounding Durant's calf injury, I am having a hard time determining just how much I want to hammer the champs. Even if Durant does not play, I think the price is cheap. Golden State has lost one playoff series in the past five years. I understand the allure of an underdog, but I also have seen plenty of underdog tickets in the trash. To me, this just feels like all those bettors who tried to find value fading Floyd Mayweather during his prime run.
By now we know the stat: Golden State is 31-1 in its past 32 games (21-7-4 ATS) when Curry plays but Durant does not. The Warriors are the better team in this matchup, although I would prefer a healthy Durant. The Raptors are a strong defensive team, but Golden State will warrant a much different strategy than Giannis Antetokounmpo and Milwaukee did. I imagine the Dubs will initially focus on Marc Gasol and force him into switches, much like the Warriors did with Enes Kanter in the Western Conference finals. If double-teams come to Curry and Thompson, then Green becomes the facilitator and attacks from the free throw line. If the Raptors implement a more athletic lineup without Gasol, then they must switch all picks and stay attached to the Splash Brothers. That is much easier said than done.


Kawhi Leonard is an absolute beast, but the Raptors rely so heavily on him that they become too one-dimensional on offense. The Raptors just cannot afford scoring droughts, and I anticipate too many to overcome. Additionally, I do not see Golden State losing at home, so this series is essentially over if (when) the Warriors win one of the first two games.


Pick: Golden State -300



Fortenbaugh: This series opened Saturday night priced at Golden State -275/Toronto +225 before some significant Warriors action forced a lightning-quick adjustment to Golden State -300/Toronto +250, and for good reason, as the defending champs are unequivocally the best road team in the business. Under head coach Steve Kerr over the past five postseasons, Golden State has recorded 30 road victories -- the most in a five-year span in NBA playoff history -- as well as at least one road win in 22 consecutive postseason series.


Additionally, Curry & Co. concluded the 2018-19 regular season ranked tied for first in the NBA in road wins (27), first in offensive rating when playing on the road (115.1), first in net rating when playing on the road (+6.4), first in effective field-goal percentage on the road (56.4 percent) and first in true shooting percentage on the road (59.5 percent).


My initial thought was to pass on the series now but get involved at a reduced price in the event the Warriors lost Game 1. But then I remembered the fact that Golden State is a sensational 18-1 in Game 1s of a playoff series under Kerr, so the current price of -300 is only going to climb following a Dubs win in Game 1. In that event, I might as well beat the move.


Pick: Golden State -300




Schultz: Fatigue has to play a factor at some point, right? Kawhi Leonard has played 100 minutes more than Stephen Curry in the playoffs and 66 more than any other Warrior. And Leonard will not only be tasked with scoring in the NBA Finals, but he will have to defend Curry as well -- and Klay Thompson at times. This is concerning, especially given the Splash Brothers' relentless off-ball movement. In fact, Curry and Thompson rank eighth and second, respectively, in total mileage per game in the playoffs. The amount of screens they draw both on and off the ball means Leonard will have to do more running than he did against the Bucks. To be sure, Giannis Antetokounmpo posed a unique threat, but he is more predictable to guard, both in terms of shot selection and catch location (generally top of key or left side). The Warriors don't have home-court in this series, but they are the No. 1 offensive efficiency team in basketball on the road.


Pick: Warriors in 6

[biggie12]

so everyone is picking gs interesting.


Toronto with another easy victory tonight book it

[Seaweed]

Curry scores 37

[sosawestbrook]

State 1h +115

State 1h Raptors 2h +450