With the 2019 NBA playoffs in full swing, there are plenty of betting opportunities every night. Our experts -- Joe Fortenbaugh, Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian and Jordan Schultz -- will be here each day throughout the postseason, giving their best bets for the evening's games.
All odds from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook unless otherwise listed. As always, shop around for the best price. Sunday's games
Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers (-2)
Total: 214.5 Kezirian: This just might be the most intriguing game of the playoffs. What exactly is Toronto's ceiling? They coasted throughout much of the regular season, pacing Kawhi Leonard and others with load management. However, the analytics absolutely loved Toronto's starting lineup when it actually did play. Leonard has certainly demonstrated his superstar skill set in these playoffs. But can we finally trust Kyle Lowry, now that he is not a first or second scoring option? And that's particularly important if Pascal Siakam is out with a calf contusion (currently doubtful). The Sixers are loaded on paper with All-Stars and an MVP-caliber player in Joel Embiid. Last year, I felt they lacked a certain toughness and poise, but Jimmy Butler fills that void and is the difference-maker. The home crowd was certainly a factor in Game 3.
Pick: Sixers -2 (only if Siakam is out)
Fortenbaugh: Three games, three unders and the closing total keeps dropping (223 in Game 1 to 220 in Game 2 to 216 in Game 3 to 215 in Game 4), but I believe a sliver of value still exists in siding with the under when Philadelphia and Toronto get together on Sunday.
Despite a Game 3 flop, Toronto remains one of the best road teams in the NBA due in large part to a squad that ranked fourth in defensive rating when playing away from Scotiabank Arena this past season. Additionally, that defense could be slightly aided by a 3-point regression on Philadelphia's behalf after the Sixers shot 43 percent from deep in Game 3, which is significantly higher than the 35 percent Philly converted during the regular season.
Be advised that the pace has continued to decrease in every game this series, from 96.5 in Game 1 to 94.3 in Game 2 to 93.5 in Game 3.
Pick: Under 215
Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers (-3.0)
Total: 210 Kezirian: This is where you throw out conventional handicapping and trust your gut. After all, we do not exactly have a large sample size of four-overtime playoff thrillers to reference. With the chips on the table, I trust Portland. Game 3 was a demoralizing loss for Denver. And while I expect the Nuggets to understand the series still has life, they also logged a ton of minutes, and this is a quick turnaround. Portland has a deeper bench, and I expect coach Terry Stotts to rely on those role players, much like he did with Rodney Hood late in Game 3. Plus, I expect Damian Lillard to break through here after not quite living up to his lofty expectations in this series.
The total is an interesting betting angle. Will the fatigue show on defense, offense or both? My instinct is to wait to bet the second half under. I think the pace really slows down after intermission. I also lean to under the game total.
Pick: Portland -3
Fortenbaugh: Stop me if you've heard this one before: Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets find themselves set to play a Game 4 on the road trailing 2-1 in a best-of-seven series. If this scenario sounds familiar, that's because it's the exact same situation the Nuggets faced in the Western Conference quarterfinals against the Spurs, except for the fact that Denver had lost 13 straight regular season contests in San Antonio dating back to 2013.
The result? Denver thrashed the Spurs by 14 points despite closing as 3.5-point underdogs.
Pick: Nuggets +3
Johnson: The spread in Game 3 closed Blazers -5.5 at a few of the sharper sportsbooks before tip-off. There really hasn't been much that has changed outside of the quadruple-overtime game that saw Denver's most important player Nikola Jokic log 65 minutes.
My projection isn't quite as high as the -5.5, but at -4.8 the current market sitting Portland -3 for Game 4 is short. I understand that the Nuggets are facing a likely "must-win" situation, but is that really worth a swing of 2.5 points? How can we anticipate how a young road team responds after a demoralizing road loss in quadruple overtime? I don't think we fairly can, and the numbers say this spread is too low at this point.
I received multiple questions about the total in this Game 4 as it opened at 215 and immediately plummeted to the 210 we see now. Sure, everyone could be worn out and the efficiency of the offenses could suffer. But the same could be said for the effort on defense as well. In my opinion, it can go both ways, and it isn't something I want to be betting on. It's likely that both teams will slow the pace down throughout the game to limit the amount of total possessions played, so I'm not ultimately surprised by the move down from 215. I think 210 is a little too drastic, but I'm not getting involved.
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2019 NBA playoffs: Tonight's best bets 🏀
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