95-119
Auburn +5.5 - ESPN talked about nothing but Duke all year and talked about how much better the ACC was than other conferences, Duke and Virginia should be a combined 0-6 ATS this tournament if not for Virginia's lucky cover in overtime against Purdue.
Auburn plays at a different level in big games, they played down to the level of competition during the regular season but they stepped it up during the SEC tournament and have played great in the main tournament. Virginia is a very consistent team during the regular season, but they don't have another level they can take their game to big games, and they have struggled in the tournament for years. Auburn should have a physical advantage against Virginia and even in a slow tempo game against a good defensive team like Virginia Auburn's guards are more athletic. Virginia doesn't have consistent inside scoring since their frontline players aren't good post players, and Auburn was fine against very good defensive Kentucky team even in a slower game.