1. #1
    eaglesfan371
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    Which is better, bonus or no bonus situation

    Book offering 10% cash bonus, 5x
    NHL odds -108/-107 (15 cent)

    Other book offering no cash bonus
    NHL odds -105/-105 (10 cent)

    Assume both balances will go through 5x rollover.
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  2. #2
    Hman
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    All depends what type of better you are and your plans.

    Are you wanting to hit & run or are you in it for the Long haul by playing the entire season of a particular sport.

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  3. #3
    eaglesfan371
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hman View Post
    All depends what type of better you are and your plans.

    Are you wanting to hit & run or are you in it for the Long haul by playing the entire season of a particular sport.
    Assume economics theory here, moment rollover is complete, player will go to the lowest price so I would withdraw my balance immediately after 5x.
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  4. #4
    eaglesfan371
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    Assuming Iím doing the calc right would it simply just be 5x / odds...

    For example 1000 deposit + bonus = 5500 rollover (11 x 5).

    5500 / 1.075 = $5116
    5500 / 1.050 = $5238

    $5238 - $5116 = $122 which is more than $100 cash bonus.

    Is that analysis correct?
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  5. #5
    BuckyOne
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    Well no - you only pay the juice when the bet loses. The juice is not always going to be precisely 105 or 108 for that matter. Compare prices with the two books and determine if the juice is ever the same on an event. Maybe, they would both be 115 on something.

    How about putting a dime in each play and playing the bet at the place with the least juice or if they are even do the one with the rollover?

  6. #6
    Crusherrr
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    The correct answer would be the one with 10% bonus but only depositing 1 unit. Lose, re-deposit and take 10% again.

  7. #7
    danshan11
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    this is a really good thread, I think the math answer could be interesting

  8. #8
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    this is a really good thread, I think the math answer could be interesting
    why not take a stab?

    this is 8th grade math so basically right in your wheelhouse
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  9. #9
    Cuse0323
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    Iíd be failing 8th grade math. Think I did that already.

  10. #10
    danshan11
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    useless post 34162, I really would if I knew the math but I do not know the math on this one, if someone does please chime in!

  11. #11
    Sawyer
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    Pick bonus. Bet one side in that book and other side in other book. Get bonus in other bookie as well. Make profit regardless of result. Repeat.

  12. #12
    Stallion
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    Sawyer is right.

  13. #13
    jjgold
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    lower juice long term

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  14. #14
    ridgeway
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sawyer View Post
    Pick bonus. Bet one side in that book and other side in other book. Get bonus in other bookie as well. Make profit regardless of result. Repeat.
    ^^^^^^^^^^^ This.

  15. #15
    Brutus84
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    Just take bonus. Youíre going to lose it all anyways but at least youíll be able to have more to lose.

  16. #16
    eaglesfan371
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus84 View Post
    Just take bonus. You’re going to lose it all anyways but at least you’ll be able to have more to lose.
    You posted this comment right as I won two more posted bets...if you review all my posted plays since joining SBR...average bet of $400...up over $5k...thank you though for the advice

    Edit: Sorry, that was a bit cocky. Just on an insane run, up over $10k since beginning of year, no insanely large bets, just consistency and feeling on top of world. Moved a lot of it to a couple index funds and appreciate the stats I've been incorporating. I stopped betting basketball entirely, my biggest losing sport, almost as bad as Morino in CBB, been killing it in NHL and tennis like I usually do. Its an amazing feeling when your capping and models are hitting right.
    Last edited by eaglesfan371; 02-27-19 at 07:04 PM.
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  17. #17
    thomorino
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    Quote Originally Posted by eaglesfan371 View Post
    You posted this comment right as I won two more posted bets...if you review all my posted plays since joining SBR...average bet of $400...up over $5k...thank you though for the advice

    Edit: Sorry, that was a bit cocky. Just on an insane run, up over $10k since beginning of year, no insanely large bets, just consistency and feeling on top of world. Moved a lot of it to a couple index funds and appreciate the stats I've been incorporating. I stopped betting basketball entirely, my biggest losing sport, almost as bad as Morino in CBB, been killing it in NHL and tennis like I usually do. Its an amazing feeling when your capping and models are hitting right.
    Fuk off

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  18. #18
    pimike
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    Quote Originally Posted by thomorino View Post
    Fuk off
    You English language seems to be about 2nd grade. Is this the only 2 words you learned?

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  19. #19
    eaglesfan371
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    Quote Originally Posted by thomorino View Post
    Fuk off
    Wasn't attacking you dude, you've done horrible in CBB this season, that's the truth. You've done amazing in NBA, that's also the truth. I used to try and bet spots in NBA and CBB and always got crushed. Even though I love college basketball, especially since I graduated 2 years ago, I realize its major -EV for me so just focusing on the sports I've been good at. For example, would've gone large on Maryland CBB tonight, thought there was no way Maryland does not cover here. Did not bet it though, sticking to my rule and oh look, it lost, bad.

    Just like I think you should stop betting CBB and instead just bet NBA as you've done well with that Morino.
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  20. #20
    jtoler
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sawyer View Post
    Pick bonus. Bet one side in that book and other side in other book. Get bonus in other bookie as well. Make profit regardless of result. Repeat.
    wise words from an obvious arbitrageur

  21. #21
    eaglesfan371
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    Quote Originally Posted by jtoler View Post
    wise words from an obvious arbitrageur
    I don't think you can apply the bet both sides with 10% bonus 5x rollover. The juice after 5x, assuming 2.5 losses, would not equal profit (I think my math is correct, please check below). The larger bonus books recently declined my action so not an option there.

    15 cent juice
    1/1.0375 = 0.9639

    (5x / 2 = 2.5x edge applied if u bet both sides)

    0.9639^2.5 = 0.912

    100% + 10% cash bonus = 1.1

    1.1 x 0.912 = $1.003 per $1 of starting balance.

    Thus, 10% bonus, 5x rollover, is pretty much breakeven after 5x if you bet both sides. No point in doing that.


    If 10 cent lines

    1/1.025 = 0.9756
    0.9756^2.5 = 0.94
    1.1 x 0.94 = $1.034 per $1 starting balance. If 10 cent juice, possible small arb.
    Last edited by eaglesfan371; 02-28-19 at 01:42 AM.
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  22. #22
    Optional
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    Quote Originally Posted by eaglesfan371 View Post
    Assuming I’m doing the calc right would it simply just be 5x / odds...

    For example 1000 deposit + bonus = 5500 rollover (11 x 5).

    5500 / 1.075 = $5116
    5500 / 1.050 = $5238

    $5238 - $5116 = $122 which is more than $100 cash bonus.

    Is that analysis correct?
    I think that is correct, as in the simplest way to compare, if you are a flat unit bettor grinding it out.
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  23. #23
    danwinkler
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    Quote Originally Posted by eaglesfan371 View Post
    Book offering 10% cash bonus, 5x
    NHL odds -108/-107 (15 cent)

    Other book offering no cash bonus
    NHL odds -105/-105 (10 cent)

    Assume both balances will go through 5x rollover.
    If you are in it for the long term and if you are a long term winning bettor, book with better juice is always the best choice.

  24. #24
    lonegambler23
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    only broke dik fuks need bonuses

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