Best Bets For The College Football Playoff National Championship
Best bets for the College Football Playoff National Championship
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It seemed as though Alabama and Clemson were on a collision course from the very beginning of the season. For the fourth consecutive year, the Crimson Tide and Tigers will face off in the College Football Playoff, and for the third time in four years, this game will determine the National Champion.
Given that the College Football Playoff National Championship is one of the most high-profile football games of the year, there are plenty of options for betting on the game's outcome and on individual performances. Chris Fallica, Will Harris and Phil Steele are here to offer insights and picks for the game. Their analysis includes a handful of props that could prove valuable in what's likely to be a tightly contested title game.
Game time is Eastern. All lines from Westgate Las Vegas Superbook. College Football Playoff National Championship
Total: 59 Monday, 8 p.m. (ESPN)
Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA PickCenter consensus:57 percent picked Alabama Harris: The defensive front sevens have the advantage for both teams, but both sides are weak in the secondary, with a lot of skill on the field for both offenses. That has me leaning over the total of 59 in what will be a pass-first affair.
The early sharp money is backing Clemson, as a line that opened at -6 or -6.5 is now -4.5 or -5 at most stores. We expect a competitive game as well, but we lean toward laying less than a score with Alabama because of one advantage that sticks out in an otherwise even affair.
That X-factor is the deeper and more diverse array of playmakers that Alabama's offense can lean on. Trevor "MMMBop" Lawrence is awesome, but Bama has double the fun, and both quarterbacks are more mobile and more experienced. Travis Etienne is great, but Alabama's backfield is deeper and more versatile. For my money, third-down assassin Hunter Renfrow is as good as any receiver on the field, and he leads a very good Clemson receiving corps, but Alabama's group is deeper and more explosive from all positions, especially tight end.
The question we'll be trying to answer this week is whether one offensive line is poised to really outshine the other. If so, that will be the decisive factor. Neither team's backs can run wild. Both teams can throw and catch. The winner could well be the team whose offensive line plays the best and unlocks all the skill on the field. Which line can keep its ace passer clean and run the ball effectively when it's most needed?
ATS pick: Alabama -4.5 Score: Alabama 38, Clemson 31 Steele: The best selections during the college football season involve value, and there is very little value in this game as the line is sharp on both side and total. The two best teams in the country, by far, square off, and it is tough to go against either team. I have Alabama rated as the nation's third-best offense, but Clemson checks in at No. 4. I have Clemson rated as the third-best defense in the country, while Alabama checks in at No. 4.
If you are thinking of wagering on the Crimson Tide, you should know that Alabama does have a substantial edge on special teams, as that unit is No. 19 in my special teams rankings while Clemson's special teams unit comes in ranked No. 102. Nick Saban is also facing a true freshman quarterback in Trevor Lawrence. Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who won the National Championship game last year, has an outstanding group of receivers to work with against a Clemson secondary that allowed South Carolina's Jake Bentley to throw for 510 yards and Texas A&M's Kellen Mond to pass for 430 yards.
Clemson backers like the fact that Dabo Swinney is 8-1 against the spread in bowl games and College Football Playoff action since 2012, while Saban is 6-3 straight up in bowl games and the Playoff since 2013 but only 3-6 ATS. In their three previous Playoff meetings, the team ranked No. 1 lost all three games outright. This season, Alabama has played to an average game grade of 115.8, the best mark in the country, while Clemson has played to a 115.4 average game grade -- and the Tigers are getting over a field goal.
If you are looking at props, one under-the-radar player to watch is Jaylon Waddle. I believe Bama has two advantages in this game: on special teams, and in the passing game versus the Clemson secondary. Waddle is the Crimson Tide's No. 2 receiver, and he also averaged 15.1 yards per punt return, with a combined eight touchdowns. Though he had just 20 yards against Oklahoma, he was the team's leading receiver against Georgia with 113 yards. My favorite prop out of those offered by the Westgate is Tagovailoa to have a completion of over 42.5 yards. I think each team will take their shots, and Tagovailoa should land at least one during the game.
My computer has this game at 31-29, which is right at the total. Because I have to make a selection on this game, I will lean with neither team being able to grind it out and each having to take some chances. That could result in some big plays, so I will lean toward the over. This should be a great game to watch.
Lean: Over 58.5 Score: Alabama 34, Clemson 30
Coughlin: Well, the time has come -- Roman Number IV is what I am calling this matchup between the Tide and the Tigers... and I can't believe how hard it is to choose a side. Then you look at the total and you see that it's dropped... but I think that is due to the weather possibly having some rain in the forecast. We know both offenses have put up crazy numbers this year, as Bama comes in averaging 47 points per game and Clemson averages 43 PPG.
If I had to choose an offense in this match up it would be the Crimson Tide's -- I just think they have more versatility than the Tigers. Now, I know the Tigers have the better of the two defenses, but Tua and his ability to get rid of the ball to guys like Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs or TE Irv Smith makes me feel like they can sort of neutralize the best unit on the field, which is the Clemson defensive line.
I'll say Bama wins and covers.
ATS pick: Alabama -4.5 Score: Alabama 38, Clemson 27 Fallica: Either Alabama or Clemson has been No. 1 for each of the last 53 weeks, and they square off in what seemed like an inevitable College Football Playoff National Championship matchup. Clemson was the side I initially liked when the game was first posted, but it's tough for me to take the Tigers at +4.5 (or even 5.5) now when the line opened at +6.5. The Clemson money line (currently around +180) is probably the better way to go at this point. If the number comes down further, you could even lay the shorter number with the Tide as a way to potentially offset that. Sure, you could potentially lose both bets, but in breaking down the matchup, it seems to me like either an outright Clemson win, or an Alabama win by at least a TD. For the purpose of this column, let's call it 35-31 Clemson.
If you look at the Tigers' offense since Trevor Lawrence returned from injury for the Wake Forest game, it's been on par with Alabama's season average, scoring nearly 48 PPG -- and the Tigers have actually gained 20 more YPG than the Crimson Tide. The potential loss of Christian Miller is a big deal for the Tide pass rush, and the Clemson offense would be very happy to see him on the sidelines. If you're looking for a few more trends: the underdog has covered each of the last five championship games; Alabama is 1-4 ATS in its last five games when favored by fewer than seven points; and Clemson is 8-1 ATS in its last nine bowl games and 7-1 ATS in its last eight bowl games as an underdog with six outright wins. This is by far is the best pass offense Alabama has brought into any of the four matchups with Clemson, and that could make a big difference.
Though I don't think the current spread offers much value, I do think there are some props that are worth playing -- and that's what I'll focus on here.
Ruggs has scored in nine games this season, and two of the five games in which he didn't score came against The Citadel and in the Georgia game when Tagovailoa was hurt. So in essence, there were just three games in which Tagovailoa and Ruggs played together and Ruggs didn't score. He has 11 TDs on 45 catches this season, and I expect he will find the end zone Monday night.
Longest TD: Over 52.5 yards (-110)
In the last three title games, there have been six TDs of longer than 50 yards. With both offenses possessing plenty of deep threats at WR and with the home run ability of Clemson running back Travis Etienne, there's an excellent chance at least one long TD will be scored.
Will there be a defensive/special teams TD: No (-220)
In the last 11 title games, there have been only three non-offensive touchdowns scored. This isn't the Alabama team that scored 15 non-offensive TDs a few years back, as the Crimson Tide have nine in the last two years. Take away Christian Miller from Alabama and Dexter Lawrence from Clemson, and both defenses lose a little bit of that scoring potential.
Higgins has scored in all of Clemson's biggest games, save for the Syracuse matchup, when Trevor Lawrence got hurt. The Alabama secondary will have problems matching up with Higgins, Ross, Renfrow and the rest for 60 minutes, and that should allow Higgins to score again in this game.
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Best Bets For The College Football Playoff National Championship
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