[DJK]

SBR has 62% on Notre Dame and 38% on Clemson and even worse at Sports Insights with 74% on Notre Dame and 26% on Clemson.

Yet, the spread has moved from -11.5 to -12.5 and it's consensus across all sportsbooks.

So, what gives? If more people are betting on Notre Dame and the books want to balance the action, then shouldn't they be moving the line down and not up?

I was going to bet rather big on Notre Dame, but now I may have to reconsider and take Clemson instead.

What I don't like is that Clemson seems rather cocky including the coach. It's either quiet confidence or foolish over-confidence.

[2daBank]

I’d be confident too if I got to play weakest team in the group.

[DJK]

I’d be confident too if I got to play weakest team in the group.

If you use the translative logic on those two teams, then you have to go opposite and take Notre Dame.

Meaning, Clemson beat Pittsburgh by 32 and Notre Dame barely beat Pittsburgh by 5 at home, so using that logic Clemson is the pick but it's almost always wrong using that logic and therefore Notre Dame is the more logical pick.

[DJK]

I checked the box score on the championship game between Clemson vs Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh had only 8 yards passing. Is that even accurate?

Is Clemson's pass defense really that good?

[Shifty]

Early money moved the opener from -11 to -13/13.5. This week the line dropped back to 12.5. I'd assume books taking more volume now so that's why the percentages show money on ND.

[DJK]

If you use the translative logic on those two teams, then you have to go opposite and take Notre Dame.

Meaning, Clemson beat Pittsburgh by 32 and Notre Dame barely beat Pittsburgh by 5 at home, so using that logic Clemson is the pick but it's almost always wrong using that logic and therefore Notre Dame is the more logical pick.

Just noticed that Clemson barely beat Syracuse and Notre Dame crushed Syracuse, so that translative logic offsets.

My initial lean on Notre Dame was based on their passing game and Clemson's weakness in the secondary. Don't know about Notre Dame's run defense but if they can hold up against Clemson's run game, then I would have to say Notre Dame covers.

[DJK]

Early money moved the opener from -11 to -13/13.5. This week the line dropped back to 12.5. I'd assume books taking more volume now so that's why the percentages show money on ND.

I would be more comfortable taking Notre Dame if the line moves down.

[pavyracer]

Clemson will score a lot of points. If you don't like the spread movement bet the over points for Clemson. I can see them scoring 35-42 points on Notre Dame.

[kufan11]

Does clemson losing their best defensive player help their chances and justify the line moving further in their favor...no. Give me almost 2 TDs and ND.

[BigdaddyQH]

Obviously you are just playing the game to get action on it. Successful gamblers NEVER wager that way. You either like a team or you do not. You cannot like both teams in the same game. You people simply refuse to listen. First, there is no guarantee that the information you have about how many people are wagering on which team is correct. Who releases that information? Second, I wager more than any 20 people do on a single game in here. That means if 19 of you took team A and I took team B there would be a huge difference in the number of people who wagered on team A and the amount of money wagered on Team A. The ONLY thing that counts is the money. Who do you think 85-90% of the people who wager are losers in the long run?

[2daBank]

If you use the translative logic on those two teams, then you have to go opposite and take Notre Dame.

Meaning, Clemson beat Pittsburgh by 32 and Notre Dame barely beat Pittsburgh by 5 at home, so using that logic Clemson is the pick but it's almost always wrong using that logic and therefore Notre Dame is the more logical pick.

Jesus Christ, I’m not typically a fan of guys saying someone overthinking it cause I enjoy thought. But shit man, that a lot of mind tricking going on it sounds like to me.

I could care less what either did vs pit, I know Clemson one of best few teams in country and I’m also fairly confident Irish not all that great and prob don’t even belong in top 4, skating by a bunch of weak teams don’t impress me.

That said these stupid ass dd spreads pretty much games impossible to bet for me, maybe ml parlay both w colts or something? That prob be it for me. Doubt I even watch, really don’t care.

[2daBank]

Obviously you are just playing the game to get action on it. Successful gamblers NEVER wager that way. You either like a team or you do not. You cannot like both teams in the same game. You people simply refuse to listen. First, there is no guarantee that the information you have about how many people are wagering on which team is correct. Who releases that information? Second, I wager more than any 20 people do on a single game in here. That means if 19 of you took team A and I took team B there would be a huge difference in the number of people who wagered on team A and the amount of money wagered on Team A. The ONLY thing that counts is the money. Who do you think 85-90% of the people who wager are losers in the long run?

You the fattest loser here ya fukkin phony. Nobody buys your prented to be sharp big timer you claim to be fat boy, just like we all know you ain’t ever whipped nothing, killed nothing, or watched nothing die. You a fat bitch blowhard behind a keyboard.

[lakerboy]

It's all teaser moves

[QuantumLeap]

SBR has 62% on Notre Dame and 38% on Clemson and even worse at Sports Insights with 74% on Notre Dame and 26% on Clemson.

Yet, the spread has moved from -11.5 to -12.5 and it's consensus across all sportsbooks.

So, what gives? If more people are betting on Notre Dame and the books want to balance the action, then shouldn't they be moving the line down and not up?

I was going to bet rather big on Notre Dame, but now I may have to reconsider and take Clemson instead.

What I don't like is that Clemson seems rather cocky including the coach. It's either quiet confidence or foolish over-confidence.

Books don't always move lines based on money. It's how they keep you guessing.

[kufan11]

If you were leaning ND and then found out Clemsons best defensive player was out why would that make u wanna change positions?

[jjgold]

The info books give is not accurate

[TheMoneyShot]

DJK - Forget about percentages in bowl games.... sites can give you false numbers

Just look at the line... and wager with your head.

[2daBank]

If you were leaning ND and then found out Clemsons best defensive player was out why would that make u wanna change positions?

Clearly this guy goes thru war with himself over what to play. He got meaningless line moves and bet percentages talking him off one play and onto another. He needs a shrink not a gambling forum!!

[2daBank]

The info books give is not accurate

Can’t believe so many care and make decisions based off that crap.

[MBENZ]

If the public percentage is high on ND and the line moves the other way it only means the real money is on Clemson.

[TommieGunshot]

I would be more comfortable taking Notre Dame if the line moves down.

I’ll move the line down to Notre Dame +4 and give you even money. Does that make you feel comfortable enough to take the bet?

[daneblazer]

Bowl season and we still don’t know how good clemson really is. They haven’t played a soul

[2daBank]

I’ll move the line down to Notre Dame +4 and give you even money. Does that make you feel comfortable enough to take the bet?

Lmao. Nice

Op ill give you Irish +2 for all the points you can muster!!

[navyblue81]

If you use the translative logic on those two teams, then you have to go opposite and take Notre Dame.

Meaning, Clemson beat Pittsburgh by 32 and Notre Dame barely beat Pittsburgh by 5 at home, so using that logic Clemson is the pick but it's almost always wrong using that logic and therefore Notre Dame is the more logical pick.

Logic evens out when you enter Syracuse into the equation and how each team did against them (yes, I know Lawrence got hurt but they were having major problems with them when he was healthy in that game).

I personally like the Irish in this game. I am not sure they can pull out the W but I firmly believe they can keep this game close and have a shot at winning.

[LT Profits]

SBR has 62% on Notre Dame and 38% on Clemson and even worse at Sports Insights with 74% on Notre Dame and 26% on Clemson.

Yet, the spread has moved from -11.5 to -12.5 and it's consensus across all sportsbooks.

So, what gives? If more people are betting on Notre Dame and the books want to balance the action, then shouldn't they be moving the line down and not up?

I was going to bet rather big on Notre Dame, but now I may have to reconsider and take Clemson instead.

What I don't like is that Clemson seems rather cocky including the coach. It's either quiet confidence or foolish over-confidence.

Those betting percentages are percent of BETS. Best guess is that line has gone up because Clemson has had the higher % of MONEY bet.

[Husker36]

Obviously you are just playing the game to get action on it. Successful gamblers NEVER wager that way. You either like a team or you do not. You cannot like both teams in the same game. You people simply refuse to listen. First, there is no guarantee that the information you have about how many people are wagering on which team is correct. Who releases that information? Second, I wager more than any 20 people do on a single game in here. That means if 19 of you took team A and I took team B there would be a huge difference in the number of people who wagered on team A and the amount of money wagered on Team A. The ONLY thing that counts is the money. Who do you think 85-90% of the people who wager are losers in the long run?

Bigdaddy only plays 1 game a year. And then trolls this site the rest of the year.

[kingdom]

If you use the translative logic on those two teams, then you have to go opposite and take Notre Dame.

Meaning, Clemson beat Pittsburgh by 32 and Notre Dame barely beat Pittsburgh by 5 at home, so using that logic Clemson is the pick but it's almost always wrong using that logic and therefore Notre Dame is the more logical pick.

if gambling were that easy we would all be millionaires.

[DJK]

I work as a programmer, so I wrote a program that can track bet percentages (on SBR and Sports Insights) and line moves (on SBR, Sports Insights, ScoresandOdds, etc). This is the first year I wrote the program and used it to see how it fared.

It's hitting 75% using a logic I set it to.

Unfortunately, this game did not fall into that category and therefore I have no clue what's going to happen, so maybe I shouldn't bet on it. What bothers me is that Clemson had two close games; one vs Texas A&M and one vs Syracuse. I have to exclude the Syracuse game since their starting QB did not play the whole game.

Texas A&M passed for 490 yards on Clemson and ND has some really tall receivers and I can see them passing on Clemson. I watched only one game of ND against USC and none of Clemson's. I wish I had watched more of their games to make the bet.

I won over 5K in the last two weekends betting on NFL and didn't touch a single college bowl games as I don't fare too well on college bowl games. I have fared fairly decent on the CFP games, so I'm trying to see if it's worth betting on either games.

[KingKolzig]

i know ppl laugh at the teaser guy but this is a good spot to tease Clemson to -6.5

then the other half of the teaser philly eagles. looks like a winner

[sweethook]

It's all teaser moves.. no biggy

[DJK]

i know ppl laugh at the teaser guy but this is a good spot to tease Clemson to -6.5

then the other half of the teaser philly eagles. looks like a winner

If I was to make a teaser bet, then I would be teasing ND to +18.5 and not Clemson to -6.5 since like what daneblazer said, Clemson hasn't had any quality opponent except for maybe Texas A&M and they barely won that game. But the Eagles I like since I have no idea what motivation Washington has for playing except to knock out a division opponent out of the playoff too. What I don't like about the Eagles is that if the Vikings end up destroying the Bears, even though that's extremely unlikely, the Eagles may just fold if they don't see a hope of making the playoffs score watching instead of focusing on the game.

[DJK]

i know ppl laugh at the teaser guy but this is a good spot to tease Clemson to -6.5

then the other half of the teaser philly eagles. looks like a winner

I don't see too many people on here making teaser or ML parlay bets. Those two type of bets have been extremely profitable for me this season as I haven't had a losing weekend in 11 weeks (I didn't start until the beginning of October after laying off the sports betting for 7 years). I hit 6 out of 9 ML parlays and teasers just this past weekend and the minimum payout odd was 4X and the highest was 15X.

I had only ONE losing pick for the whole weekend and it was San Francisco +4.5 where they lost by 5 to the Bears. If the 49ers covered, then I would have won another $3,500 for a perfect weekend.

[DJK]

If you were leaning ND and then found out Clemsons best defensive player was out why would that make u wanna change positions?

I saw that you took Auburn. Just on that fact plus your comment above, I'm going to stick with my original pick and 1K it is on Notre Dame.

I took Syracuse for 1K even though my head kept on saying otherwise and lost when they played Notre Dame.

We will see what happens this time.

[mountie12]

[KingKolzig]

I don't see too many people on here making teaser or ML parlay bets. Those two type of bets have been extremely profitable for me this season as I haven't had a losing weekend in 11 weeks (I didn't start until the beginning of October after laying off the sports betting for 7 years). I hit 6 out of 9 ML parlays and teasers just this past weekend and the minimum payout odd was 4X and the highest was 15X.
i love teasers. if i cant pick a side i just make a teaser
I had only ONE losing pick for the whole weekend and it was San Francisco +4.5 where they lost by 5 to the Bears. If the 49ers covered, then I would have won another $3,500 for a perfect weekend.

i love teasers. if i cant pick a side i just make a teaser