[daneblazer]

Actual sports betting discussion.

Money, weather, injuries can do it. What else? Is there a particular trend setting book? One who moves the line first and then others follow?

[pavyracer]

The biggest factor is line was set up wrong and the betting corrects it. Line managers make mistakes.

[daneblazer]

Guess the question I have is why don’t we see more variance in lines across all books? Why isn’t a line -12 at one book and -15 at another? With the exception of bovada, everyone seems to be a half point within each other

[jjgold]

Guess the question I have is why don’t we see more variance in lines across all books? Why isn’t a line -12 at one book and -15 at another? With the exception of bovada, everyone seems to be a half point within each other

dont want scalpers thats why

[pavyracer]

I know books adjust the juice instead of the line. If they want you to bet +7 they will make the juice as high as -140 before giving you +6.5 line. The difference between -12 and -13.5 is very small to adjust juice. Key numbers are 3, 7, 14, 17, 21 etc.

[SharpAngles]

Dont forget the trap line moves. When the trendy dog or favorite gets an extra half point hours before kick it’s usually the books trying to catch the steam bettors.

Guess the question I have is why don’t we see more variance in lines across all books? Why isn’t a line -12 at one book and -15 at another? With the exception of bovada, everyone seems to be a half point within each other

Because most books are scared to be wrong so they let the few originators set the number and adjust the juice accordingly.

[d2bets]

Guess the question I have is why don’t we see more variance in lines across all books? Why isn’t a line -12 at one book and -15 at another? With the exception of bovada, everyone seems to be a half point within each other

Because if the prevailing line is -15 and the book posts -12, all of the money will come in at -12 and the book will have totally lopsided action. If the book wants a little more action one way or another a slight juice move or perhaps a half point will do the trick. No need to be so off-market.

[daneblazer]

When i worked for a local years and years ago, if we were getting pounded on one side, he’d move it until the action on that side reduced. If it didn’t they were taking a “worse” line. Have a hard time believing every book is getting the same amount of action on one side. Maybe it’s different now with internet books and people ready to jump on an advantageous line.

[d2bets]

When i worked for a local years and years ago, if we were getting pounded on one side, he’d move it until the action on that side reduced. If it didn’t they were taking a “worse” line. Have a hard time believing every book is getting the same amount of action on one side. Maybe it’s different now with internet books and people ready to jump on an advantageous line.

Bingo. Easy to compare and shop. Been that way for 20 years.

[gauchojake]

Sometimes books want action on the same team at a different number.

All the guys who say books want 50/50 crack me up.

[d2bets]

Sometimes books want action on the same team at a different number.

All the guys who say books want 50/50 crack me up.

For the record, I certainly did not say that.

[jtoler]

Sometimes books want action on the same team at a different number.

All the guys who say books want 50/50 crack me up.

all the guys that say they dont crack me up

[Louisvillekid1]

Jeez no wonder so many lose

Lol They just want the best OPP to get their vig as safely as possible

[gauchojake]

For the record, I certainly did not say that.

I know that there are guys who will come in and say that, so just a preemptive comment not related to your earlier comment.

[jjgold]

Lines just copy Pinnacle for the most part to avoid exposure

It is real simple

[Mrtop7]

if you want differences in the line look at post time. Not the middle of the week. Need to be in quite a few places.

last week houston closed at -2 one place and the other side texas tech had -2.5 .
same game ...vegas and offshore.
sometimes cris stays open 30 seconds - minute longer that is why they are valuable.

[thetrinity]

i had a very reckless friend who won around 200k in parlays over the bowl season about 10 years ago.

he would bet 10k (his max, these were straight bets) on college basketball and they (a big book) would move the line a half point each time he did it.

it was definitely not sharp action, he of course lost all but enough to pay a semester of his classes.

that was the only time i really got to see behind the curtain

lets be honest, every game and situation is different, as is every book, but they all end up about the same

[Mrtop7]

there is a lot of movement the last 10 minutes till post.. they don't end the same.

[LT Profits]

The existence of line services basically eliminated the large variances. Back in the day before they existed, bettors would not know better price was available somewhere else and would accept any line.

[Mrtop7]

not on the closing lines offshore to vegas. if you look now you can see 1 point differences right now on NCAA totals

[Mrtop7]

right now western michigan game 349 caesars -8
draftkings -7

[LT Profits]

not on the closing lines offshore to vegas. if you look now you can see 1 point differences right now on NCAA totals

Unless you are in Vegas, variance between offshore and Vegas is irrelevant. I am talking strictly among the offshore shops.

[Mrtop7]

agree offshore is the same overall

[LT Profits]

right now western michigan game 349 caesars -8
draftkings -7

That is even worse comparison because you can't bet at both places.

EDIT: Unless DK has shop(s) in Vegas?

[Mrtop7]

why not?

in new jersey you can

[Mrtop7]

you outside usa?

[LT Profits]

why not?

in new jersey you can

OK, edit my edit to Ceasars in Jersey.

[LT Profits]

you outside usa?

No I am in PA, I just didn't realize Caesars was in Jersey.

[Mrtop7]

if you are outside USA . better. pinny and matchbook

[Mrtop7]

did PA open yet ?

[Mrtop7]

you are one of my favorite posters in all of the forums. I like the way you attack the games.

[LT Profits]

did PA open yet ?

Nope, state was demanding excessive taxes on gambling at last check. Frankly not as important to me as it seems to be to many others, I will continue to bet online with -105 juice and more betting options.

[Mrtop7]

i like heritage and 5dimes , bol, cris outfit myself

i agree

[LT Profits]

you are one of my favorite posters in all of the forums. I like the way you attack the games.

Aw shucks! How much do I owe you again?

[Mrtop7]

lol