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Best Bets For The Daytona 500
Best bets for the Daytona 500
PJ Walsh
ESPN INSIDER
For the first time since the 2000 Daytona 500, the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series will be without its most recognizable star. Dale Earnhardt Jr., the winner of 15 straight Most Popular Driver awards, retired after the 2017 season, leaving the sport devoid of its biggest name. Bankable stars Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart also have retired from the Cup series in recent years, leaving NASCAR's premier series extremely thin regarding crossover mainstream appeal.
However, Scott Cooley, an odds consultant for BetDSI, said earlier this week that the lack of star power has not had a negative effect on betting interest and handle for Sunday's running of the Daytona 500.
"At this stage, the handle is actually up since last year. I'm not sure if there's a newfound love for NASCAR among the bettors or if everyone's bankroll is bigger after the Super Bowl, but we're seeing a decent amount of volume and we basically have a week left," he said.
With general popularity, including TV ratings, waning in recent years, it's encouraging to see a potential increase in Daytona 500 betting handle, especially without Earnhardt headlining the field.
In terms of the racing itself, NASCAR made a major rules change by eliminating the ride-height rule for all four restrictor-plate races this season. While the details aren't necessarily important, this has significantly changed how the cars are handling at Daytona compared to recent years. However, based on what we've seen in the Clash and Can-Am Duel races, one team is clearly ahead of the pack and offering plenty of value for Daytona 500 bettors.
Note: Odds are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday afternoon, unless otherwise noted.
Picks to win
Joey Logano (8-1)
It has been both an impressive and frustrating Speedweeks so far for Logano. He has shown blazing speed, but hasn't been able to score a victory. Logano finished second behind Penske Racing teammate Brad Keselowski in Sunday's Clash, before ending up as the bridesmaid once again in his Can-Am Duel race Thursday night, despite leading 56 of 67 laps.
Logano has won three of the past 12 restrictor-plate races, including the 2015 Daytona 500, so he's certainly a driver who understands the draft and knows how to win at this racetrack. At 8-1, Logano is my favorite to win the race.
Ryan Blaney (12-1)
Like Penske teammates Logano and Keselowski, Blaney has dominated since cars unloaded last week at Daytona. Blaney finished fourth in the Clash, won his Can-Am Duel race and will start third in the Daytona 500.
With the Penske cars clearly the class of the field, I expect to see Blaney teaming up with Keselowski and Logano to lead this race early and often. I have Blaney second overall in my driver rankings (behind Logano). Yet at 12-1, he's not priced as a top-five car. This screams value, and there are even better numbers floating around at other books as well.
Paul Menard (60-1)
In full disclosure, Menard was the first driver I bet to win the 2018 Daytona 500. He is a very underrated restrictor-plate racer. Over the past eight races at Daytona, Menard ranks ninth in average running position (among drivers with at least four starts), including finishes of third and fifth in last year's Daytona 500 and Coke Zero 400, respectively.
Additionally, Menard switched from Richard Childress Racing to the Wood Brothers in the offseason. The Wood Brothers have a technical alliance with Penske Racing, meaning Menard's cars are very similar to those run by the Penske drivers. And as you've perhaps noticed, I'm quite bullish on the Penske Fords.
Menard has been on track with the rest of the field this week and has not disappointed. While a seventh-place finish in his Can-Am Duel race isn't overly impressive at first glance, his performance certainly was. Menard got shuffled from the front to the back of the draft multiple times and was able to pick his way back to the lead cars each time with very little drafting help. With only a handful of laps to go, Menard made a bold move to try to get alongside the first- and second-place cars, only to be hung out to dry when no cars went with him. That's a move he had to make to win and the reason his finishing position isn't an accurate measure of just how good he was in that race. Menard's 60-1 price is a fantastic value for Sunday's race.
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Originally Posted by jjgold
