1. 08-06-17 06:48 AM #1
    LT Profits
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    MLB - Sunday, 8/6/17

    3 MLB Plays Sunday

    Blue Jays / Astros UNDER 8.5 +110 (Heritage)
    Giants -117 (Heritage)
    Dodgers / Mets UNDER 9 +100 (Heritage)


    YTD: 405-443-31, -14.99
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  2. 08-06-17 10:03 AM #2
    Jayvegas420
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    Love the under and the Giants.
    Jays under is a concern even at +110.
    GL today.
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  3. 08-06-17 10:27 AM #3
    GzaTheGenius
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    Never bet the Giants with Samardiziloiiaaa on the rubber
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  4. 08-06-17 10:31 AM #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by GzaTheGenius View Post
    Never bet the Giants with Samardiziloiiaaa on the rubber
    Just the opposite, Samardzija is my favorite Giant to bet on. One of biggest positive ERA - xFIP variances in the majors, him and Tanaka (few others but those two come immediately to mind).
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  5. 08-06-17 10:48 AM #5
    GzaTheGenius
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Just the opposite, Samardzija is my favorite Giant to bet on. One of biggest positive ERA - xFIP variances in the majors, him and Tanaka (few others but those two come immediately to mind).
    I've won a lot of money fading him this year, pretty much auto bet against him for the rest of the season for me. GL on your other plays though !
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  6. 08-06-17 10:51 AM #6
    dirtycash66
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    3 MLB Plays Sunday

    Blue Jays / Astros UNDER 8.5 +110 (Heritage)
    Giants -117 (Heritage)
    Dodgers / Mets UNDER 9 +100 (Heritage)


    YTD: 405-443-31, -14.99
    Well looks like this is going to be a losing season. oh well, hope you have better luck with the NFL
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  7. 08-06-17 11:01 AM #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by dirtycash66 View Post
    Well looks like this is going to be a losing season. oh well, hope you have better luck with the NFL
    Too early, still 3 months left counting playoffs. As long as I am within single-digits September 1, I'd like my chances of finishing + to keep my streak of winning MLB seasons alive.
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  8. 08-06-17 11:02 AM #8
    LT Profits
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    4 MLB Additions

    7 MLB Plays Sunday

    Yankees / Indians UNDER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)
    Padres / Piratess UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
    Blue Jays / Astros UNDER 8.5 +110 (Heritage)
    Athletics / Angels UNDER 9 -110 (Heritage)
    Giants -117 (Heritage)
    Mets +149 (Heritage)
    Dodgers / Mets UNDER 9 +100 (Heritage)
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  9. 08-06-17 11:36 AM #9
    jjgold
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    How many units are you down with totals meaning under bets
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  10. 08-06-17 11:38 AM #10
    chargers4222
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Just the opposite, Samardzija is my favorite Giant to bet on. One of biggest positive ERA - xFIP variances in the majors, him and Tanaka (few others but those two come immediately to mind).
    Ah LT, I think I found a fatal flaw in your powerful computer system -- it values "ERA - xFIP variances" more than, you know, the guy's record, which in this case is 18-22 with the Giants.
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  11. 08-06-17 01:08 PM #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by chargers4222 View Post
    Ah LT, I think I found a fatal flaw in your powerful computer system -- it values "ERA - xFIP variances" more than, you know, the guy's record, which in this case is 18-22 with the Giants.
    That is not a "flaw", sabermetric numbers are much more predictive than mainstream numbers, and W/L record might be the most meaningless stat of all.
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  12. 08-06-17 01:11 PM #12
    chargers4222
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    That is not a "flaw", sabermetric numbers are much more predictive than mainstream numbers, and W/L record might be the most meaningless stat of all.
    Oh, right. So if you bet on Samardzija every game as a Giant, surely you would be absolutely killing it with his unbelievable ERA - xFIP - BzrTA - Mg76Y metric stat variances, no?
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  13. 08-06-17 03:54 PM #13
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    That is not a "flaw", sabermetric numbers are much more predictive than mainstream numbers, and W/L record might be the most meaningless stat of all.
    Watch a game every once in a while. Seriously.

    I agree with the latter part of your statement, but the former is consuming you, and your record reflects it.
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  14. 08-06-17 03:57 PM #14
    grantingyou
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Too early, still 3 months left counting playoffs. As long as I am within single-digits September 1, I'd like my chances of finishing + to keep my streak of winning MLB seasons alive.
    You're getting crushed in all sports for the last several years. You must have an endless bankroll.
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  15. 08-06-17 04:01 PM #15
    Kiddpokerr
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Watch a game every once in a while. Seriously.

    I agree with the latter part of your statement, but the former is consuming you, and your record reflects it.
    What does "watch a game" have to do with the handicapping? This must be the dumbest comment ive read so far on this site.
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  16. 08-06-17 05:16 PM #16
    Jayvegas420
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    You bet sports you don't watch KP?
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  17. 08-06-17 05:31 PM #17
    Kiddpokerr
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayvegas420 View Post
    You bet sports you don't watch KP?
    Pure waste of time, i enjoy Sunday NFL once in a while and some occasional events but that doesnt stop me from making daily coin.
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  18. 08-06-17 05:33 PM #18
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kiddpokerr View Post
    What does "watch a game" have to do with the handicapping? This must be the dumbest comment ive read so far on this site.
    You can't just crunch numbers and ignore the nuances of streaks, the way a team's chemistry is fluctuating, etc.

    Going by advanced stats alone and handicapping based on a system only is just as dumb as the dolt who plops money down on a game without taking any advanced stats into consideration. It's equally ignorant and just as destructive to a bankroll.
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  19. 08-06-17 05:40 PM #19
    Dynasty3669
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    You can't just crunch numbers and ignore the nuances of streaks, the way a team's chemistry is fluctuating, etc.

    Going by advanced stats alone and handicapping based on a system only is just as dumb as the dolt who plops money down on a game without taking any advanced stats into consideration. It's equally ignorant and just as destructive to a bankroll.
    The game is not played by robots or machines. Until it is, LT will not truly win (sans one Halley Comet year).
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  20. 08-06-17 05:41 PM #20
    jjgold
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    Models don't work anymore because the lines are much tighter
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  21. 08-06-17 06:11 PM #21
    teaserpleaser
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    I wouldn't be nearly as successful at this if I didn't watch games...

    To each his own though.

    Not a shot at LT but whatever program he uses for picks is wack as FK. I noticed it years ago.

    Dude took an under at wrigley with the wind blowing straight out 10mph ...if you watch games you know that's a no no
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  22. 08-06-17 06:22 PM #22
    Kiddpokerr
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    Quote Originally Posted by teaserpleaser View Post
    I wouldn't be nearly as successful at this if I didn't watch games...

    To each his own though.

    Not a shot at LT but whatever program he uses for picks is wack as FK. I noticed it years ago.

    Dude took an under at wrigley with the wind blowing straight out 10mph ...if you watch games you know that's a no no
    You dont need to watch the games to lnow that.
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  23. 08-06-17 06:23 PM #23
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kiddpokerr View Post
    You dont need to watch the games to lnow that.
    Where is your thread again?
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  24. 08-06-17 06:23 PM #24
    Kiddpokerr
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    You can't just crunch numbers and ignore the nuances of streaks, the way a team's chemistry is fluctuating, etc.

    Going by advanced stats alone and handicapping based on a system only is just as dumb as the dolt who plops money down on a game without taking any advanced stats into consideration. It's equally ignorant and just as destructive to a bankroll.
    No comment, you sir are in denial.
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  25. 08-06-17 06:24 PM #25
    slayer14
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    he got the under 9 for the mets game oh no
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  26. 08-06-17 06:26 PM #26
    Kiddpokerr
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Where is your thread again?
    Ill make one tomorrow. You can stop by my WTA thread if you wish and i havent seen a single women tennis match in there.
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  27. 08-06-17 06:27 PM #27
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kiddpokerr View Post
    Ill make one tomorrow. You can stop by my WTA thread if you wish and i havent seen a single women tennis match in there.
    We're not talking about WTA. This is a baseball discussion.

    I'll be keeping an eye out for your MLB plays and you keeping track of your picks for the rest of the season.

    You can't win long term in MLB by just betting lines/numbers and using a system without watching games. Period.
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  28. 08-06-17 06:29 PM #28
    Kiddpokerr
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    But, i have to say i follow a lot of matches online, espn flashscore and mlb atbat and i can see all the plays throughout the match so i guess you can compare that to actual watching dunno...
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  29. 08-06-17 06:32 PM #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kiddpokerr View Post
    But, i have to say i follow a lot of matches online, espn flashscore and mlb atbat and i can see all the plays throughout the match so i guess you can compare that to actual watching dunno...
    Not the same.

    We'll see how it goes. Will be interesting.
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  30. 08-06-17 07:12 PM #30
    teaserpleaser
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kiddpokerr View Post
    You dont need to watch the games to lnow that.
    Lolz that's one example

    My dude if you can win by looking at box scores, or a math program , or flipping coins more power to you.

    But all I know is I'm good at this shit as in I win money

    If I didn't watch games for the last 30 years I doubt I'm the sports gambler I am today.

    That's just the truth.

    I'm an in game savage thats from watching games.

    Anyways don't watch games or believe me I give zero fks.
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  31. 08-06-17 07:14 PM #31
    teaserpleaser
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kiddpokerr View Post
    But, i have to say i follow a lot of matches online, espn flashscore and mlb atbat and i can see all the plays throughout the match so i guess you can compare that to actual watching dunno...
    Nope it's not the same ...,
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