1. 07-23-15 12:15 PM #36
    unusialsusp5
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I mentioned the regression (and said "may have begun") because his rest-of-season ZiPS only has him with a 5.08 ERA and 4.73 FIP. Now, I have no idea why that would be, but it is what it is. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...120&position=P
    yes,you did say regression "may have begun" but put absolutely no stock in fan graphs trying to predict the future. will stay clear of that site. misleading and confusing. i can predict the future in that if hanley ramirez continues to play left field (or continues to be a statue out in left field) he will cost the team an extra half a dozen games.
    Last edited by unusialsusp5; 07-23-15 at 12:20 PM.
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  2. 07-23-15 12:16 PM #37
    LT Profits
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    NO PLAY on Toronto / A's Over, Kazmir scratched.
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  3. 07-23-15 01:19 PM #38
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by unusialsusp5 View Post
    yes,you did say regression "may have begun" but put absolutely no stock in fan graphs trying to predict the future. will stay clear of that site. misleading and confusing. i can predict the future in that if hanley ramirez continues to play left field (or continues to be a statue out in left field) he will cost the team an extra half a dozen games.
    ZiPS is not affiliated with fangraphs, it is its own service. Fangraphs lists several projections from several sites with ZiPS being one of them.

    Also, most cappers that use sabremetrics will disagree with you regarding fangraphs, it is a go-to for advanced stats
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  4. 07-23-15 01:41 PM #39
    VtecMouse
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    LT, whats your take on the Toronto Oakland over 8? I feel like Dickey gets tee'd off on against anyone he plays!
    Last edited by VtecMouse; 07-23-15 at 01:49 PM.
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  5. 07-23-15 01:56 PM #40
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by VtecMouse View Post
    LT, whats your take on the Toronto Oakland over 8? I feel like Dickey gets tee'd off on against anyone he plays!
    Note that I had the Over before Kazmir got traded. After plugging in Pomeranz I get 8.4. too close to the total
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  6. 07-23-15 01:58 PM #41
    Big Bear
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    so your model says Pomeranz is better than Kazmir?

    maybe you and Billy Beane are on the same page.
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  7. 07-23-15 02:51 PM #42
    wfoster2
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    Thoughts on Washington? Pirates have really been struggling
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  8. 07-23-15 02:57 PM #43
    unusialsusp5
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    ZiPS is not affiliated with fangraphs, it is its own service. Fangraphs lists several projections from several sites with ZiPS being one of them.

    Also, most cappers that use sabremetrics will disagree with you regarding fangraphs, it is a go-to for advanced stats
    no doubt that they would disagree. prefer old school methods.
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  9. 07-23-15 03:06 PM #44
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Not quite true, model uses default lineups.
    i gotcha
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  10. 07-23-15 03:22 PM #45
    wfoster2
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    LAA over isn't looking so hot right now
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  11. 07-23-15 03:29 PM #46
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by unusialsusp5 View Post
    no doubt that they would disagree. prefer old school methods.
    Yes, that is a difference between us. Model is primarily sabre-based.
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  12. 07-23-15 03:39 PM #47
    Pick'nParlays
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    Twins putting 3 up...
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  13. 07-23-15 03:52 PM #48
    marktb68
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    typical. I missed the start time of twins game. story of my life.
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  14. 07-23-15 03:53 PM #49
    dirtycash66
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    Quote Originally Posted by unusialsusp5 View Post
    absolutely do not want to bash, criticize or troll LT. understand that his model works over the long run. gives him value (on mainly underdogs, which you should only play in this sport) agree that LAA line is way too high to play today, but they're not going to lose this with houston nipping at their heels. simply just parlay angels/astros and call it a day.
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  15. 07-23-15 04:29 PM #50
    tragicend
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    Glad bovada was down and I wasn't able to take angels or tigers. Good call LT...now you REALLY got me re-thinking taking the Astros tonight.
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  16. 07-23-15 05:01 PM #51
    BamaCBass
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    Boom on Twins! Perception does NOT = reality! Will be interesting too if pitching change in Oakland results in an under after all.

    Nice work!
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  17. 07-23-15 05:03 PM #52
    ctine2020
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    Quote Originally Posted by unusialsusp5 View Post
    absolutely do not want to bash, criticize or troll LT. understand that his model works over the long run. gives him value (on mainly underdogs, which you should only play in this sport) agree that LAA line is way too high to play today, but they're not going to lose this with houston nipping at their heels. simply just parlay angels/astros and call it a day.
    No way the Angels lose you say...
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  18. 07-23-15 05:12 PM #53
    El Sol
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    Quote Originally Posted by BamaCBass View Post
    Perception does NOT = reality!
    Nice work!
    This is the exact reason Books are profitable. Most bet with their heart, and when their best Team loses against a team that sucks they chalk it up to the game being "Fixed" ignoring variance, ignoring reality

    Life is 10% reality, 90% perception. Sports betting is no different
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  19. 07-23-15 05:24 PM #54
    BlueJaysNation
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    Hey LT, is Samardzija at +125 worth the shot?
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  20. 07-23-15 06:43 PM #55
    RavensFan2k3
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Sol View Post
    This is the exact reason Books are profitable. Most bet with their heart, and when their best Team loses against a team that sucks they chalk it up to the game being "Fixed" ignoring variance, ignoring reality

    Life is 10% reality, 90% perception. Sports betting is no different
    Someone who gets it
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  21. 07-23-15 06:52 PM #56
    oldscho0led
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    LT, your thought on the Red Sox/Astros Over?
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  22. 07-23-15 10:50 PM #57
    unusialsusp5
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    Quote Originally Posted by ctine2020 View Post
    No way the Angels lose you say...
    didn't think they would. never fade a profit pick.
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  23. 07-24-15 06:00 AM #58
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by unusialsusp5 View Post
    didn't think they would. never fade a profit pick.
    Unfortunately was the only game I won, 1-3, -1.49 day.
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