[Plopowitz]

( also posted in the "Newbie" forum)

Hey guys and gals!!

I was hoping someone might be able to provide any suggestions on my situation.

I've been sports betting for many years. I don't profess to be much better that .500, and I don't profess to have a "winning system". What I would love to hear, however, are any suggestions on what might be considered smart or "best value" wagers, considering my bankroll/profile:

I enjoy lots of action. Like betting spreads over money line, usually. Would prefer to wager on quite a few college and NFL football games over the weekend. For example, lets say I have a $200 bankroll, and wish to bet $10-$20 a game. Would it be better to just bet 3 team parlays at 6-1, or should I just bet each game separately? My feeling is that if I bet $20 a game and hit 2 out of 3, I'll only profit $18. If I bet a $10 three team parlay, and hit, that's $60. Low risk, higher reward.

Anyone have any suggestions or positive experiences from certain styles?

Thanks, and BOL to all !!
Pete

[Plopowitz]

Anyone have a certain approach to how you go about placing your wagers ?

[jose21_us]

Pete I will be there week 2 at the Bellagio sportsbook.

[Plopowitz]

Nice!!! Having week 1 under your belt could make things beneficial in your week 2 selections. Good luck !

[josie88]

Small stakes gambling is hella fun for those who don't get to be naughty in their home state. If I were you, I'd determine what my entertainment budget is (since it's what you are doing, not trying to seriously win on +EV bets).

Make super small bets on anything you want. The more games you bet, the more the cocktail waitress will come by for free drinks. Be sure to ask for premium well drinks. The worst they can say is no, so ask what brands are complimentary. You might say to them (with a smile on your face), "A good pour equals a good tip, dear". If they get you a premium pour, keep your word and give them a good tip. They will come back again and again while you're sweating for hours over your $5 under bet on the Yankees game.

That, BTW, is a good +EV play for a newbie.

For maximum fun find parlays that will not be determined until you're ready for the taxi to the plane.

If you play it right, with tiny stakes, you will be engaged for your entire vacation. May you hit a 10 team parlay and pay for your trip.

Live long and prosper.

[Sawyer]

Anyone have a certain approach to how you go about placing your wagers ?

Parlay is for losers, amateurs. Stick with single wagers. Bet same amount on each game, even if you use unit/scale system, there shouldn't be a dramatical differences between your stakes. I mean don't bet 1 unit on game x and 10 unit on game 7. Good luck.

[josie88]

With all due respect Sawyer, he IS an amateur, a loser, as you assert, as are the vast of people in this forum. He has little hope of winning so why not let him have +Fun vs. +EV? For a couple of hundred bucks who cares? His bankroll is less than a nice dinner and the "O" Cirque show. He wants fun, not +EV.

Plopowitz, bet on anything you want, and have a good time. Just keep your bets small, and to Sawyer's credit, keep to flat betting when you can.

[colleewobbles]

with just $200 you won't have fun trying to hit single plays like you said maybe wining 18 measly dollars but prolly losing so parlays is the best answer for lots of action but you should expect to lose but moneyline parlay could take you deep thru many games very possibly leaving you needing just one final game to win more money than youd've on straight plays which won't pull your wagon anyways cuz you're looking for real excitement and not boring sludge that $200 worth of straight plays from a 50% player would be. Def play parlays hold on let me find my notebook i'll give you some plays to consider.

[colleewobbles]

Deep moneylines will give you a real good roll cuz it'd take a huge upset to derail you so I'd suggest a focus on those, fairly easy to get thru the college day of your ticket 'n go to Sunday and your NFL games. Suggestions below aren't official suggestions like not actual advice on teams to take but just teams to consider taking on moneyline parlay:

CFB[326] TENNESSEE U -950 CFB[342] PENN STATE -550
CFB[347] MISSISSIPPI -1350 CFB[350] NC STATE -900 CFB[378] OHIO STATE -410
CFB[379] OKLAHOMA -2700 CFB[382] UCLA -2500

NFL[488] DENVER -360 NFL[468] PITTSBURGH -300 NFL[470] PHILADELPHIA -525
NFL[476] CHICAGO -290

CFB[340] STANFORD -145 I list down here in its own section cuz now we're venturing towards some risk of course any of the ones above could lose but I feel pretty good about Stanford hosting USC....spread move from opener of -165 to -145 on Stanford means I have more research to do on this game.....later so I'm not sure I'll take it but prolly will. Even just all the teams above (Including Stanford) on a measely $30 bet would return $259.14 or thereabouts.

Make a play like this to engourage a small profit along with hopefully 2 full days of games you have interest in. All pretty sure winners. Again, anyone could lose and you should expect to lose too cuz one of 'em prolly will SOMEHOW FIND A WAY TO LOOSE even though theres no way they SHOULD lose but the goal is entertainment and this scenario here equals the best chance for that where "That" is having a "stake" albeit small in potentially 2 days worth of games.....on the budget you describe.

Theres several more good looking moneylines out there. Avoid OREGON IOWA STATE UTAH and Notre DAME cuz it just feels like one of those is gonna go down. Just my opinion.

Once you've got your basic moneyline parlay made take another $20 and get a little braver.
You can POP a parlay of deep moneylines with just 2 ATS plays.

You'll need to find those on your own really cuz this early in the year I am not comfy suggesting much beyond looking closely at TN Titans vs. KC.....TAMPA hosting Carolina.....
Pittsburgh.....just some ideas.....SD at AZ especially if you can get SD at better than +3.5 which ain't likely.....but they could very well win outright anyways....so points wouldn't matter but I'd say getting points and especially at least 3.5 would be better there.

Army might be a decent consideration in NCAA.

.....time will tell.

Whatever you do though....while you're there say this to someone..(you'll prolly wanna get drunk first):

"How do you make University of Nevada cookies?"
A: Put them in a big Bowl and beat for 3 hours.

Carpe Diem. Try to stay out of the Clark County Jail.

[colleewobbles]

Oh yeah and beware also of SF 49ers cuz ML and especially ATS while they should win and cover certain trends, early season stuff on the road I believe along with.....off the field issues (all be them in my eyes at least not a primary consideration where wagering on this game is concerned) got this proposition in a decidedly "funky" place for yours truly. Yes the Cowboys are rumored to suck massively but this could just be white noise designed to drive line movement I'd say they likely do suck but I just a recommend a no-play here for safety's sake.

The key is and your goal should be to avoid using plays that lose on your tickets. With the approach I suggest the best play you'll make is the one you don't....the loser that you avoid. In accomplishing that you will miss some winners but thats they way that it is. Along those lines and this just an "ultra-safe" approach for this weekend be wary also of St. Louis Rams cuz YEAH their defense should RAM but who the phuc is "Shaun HIll"????? 'n just forget completely that Houston and Washington are playing doing anything with Cincy at Baltimore would take some large cajones cuz the game prolly comes down to one play as Balt's DIV games (i.e. vs. Steelers) so often do.....Raiders at NYJ massive suckfest of suckyness NE/MIA divisional matchup thats been tough in the past plus might be bad weather NYG/DET no-play for me cuz Giants are just impossible to handicap cuz they themselves seem on too many occasions handicapped and Indy/Denver......

whatever you think man.

paz.

[Sam Odom]

Fade jjgold's SBR spreadsheet for the sportsbook's min per , straight bets

[crustyme]

u shouldnt be going to vegas if all you got is $200. what if u lose and become stranded? ive had losers come up to me begging me for gas money so they can get back home.

dont be that guy.

but since ur not going to listen, just put it all on an underdog to win outright. vikings, browns, raiders and redskins are good upset picks this weekend.

[Sam Odom]

Fade jjgold's SBR spreadsheet for the sportsbook's min per , straight bets

also... for the hell/fun of it - play a NFL parlay card

[colleewobbles]

u shouldnt be going to vegas if all you got is $200. what if u lose and become stranded? ive had losers come up to me begging me for gas money so they can get back home.

Its hella hard to bum gas money in Vegas. I once had to cajole a PRIEST for over an hour just to get 5 bucks. And I had a Chevy Suburban so 5 bucks only made the truck go about 17 yards before it ran out of gas again. On top of that the priest called me a "bum" and made me promise I would pay him back.

No....."cajole" is not a sexual term so don't even go there.

[colleewobbles]

also... for the hell/fun of it - play a NFL parlay card

PARLAY CARDS!!!! I forgot to mention those!!!! play a crapload of those, they don't cost much. I once hit an 11 teamer at Leroy's......that was in Laughlin though. Play alot of Parlay cards just make really smart choices of teams and don't pick 11 teams cuz its like mindboggling odds that they ever hit. But man rootin that 11 teamer in at Golden Nugget Laughlin was amazing. maybe same thing happen for you on smaller scale just cuz playin 11 teamer is dumb. Ten teamer maybe OK.

[jjgold]

Plapper I'm heading home Vegas got me

Stay small

[Sam Odom]

The guy is going to have fun apparently ...

Nothing wrong with that. So going all-in on one bet is poor advice

[colleewobbles]

Exactly. Deep Moneyline Parlay with a couple (or more if he's greedy) well thought out ATS such as TN at KC.....maybe even buy up as many points with his ATS choices as the book will allow....I just wanna see him win BIG then go to invest some of them winnings in a few MetroVegasTransit bus passes and a few $25 gift cards to some children's clothing store and or Michaels Art Store then locate a Women's shelter and give that stuff to some single moms livin on the streets of Sin City amidst the burning ass summer. If he'd pledge to do that he might even hit an 11 teamer. Parlays definitely suck but in this instance well played ones is totally the answer.