[willyback]

I've heard that you can't drop below 52%. But, I have no idea whether that's true or not

Also...

With a profitable winning percentage in tow, is there a way to calculate what the expected profits would be?

[statnerds]

house edge on -110 is 4.54%. but if you are paying -110 you are already fukked. plenty of discount shops out there.

i humbly suggest looking at far more alternatives than merely generating returns on straight bets.

find a Local that deals straight -110 on Totals and bet small and over the long haul destroy. or bet big with significant swings while Arb out a few percentage points daily.

[a4u2fear]

It depends on what bets you are making and at what price

[weirimdi]

It is easy to calculate. To break even you must reach a winning percentage of 1/average winning odds you are playing.
for example i have decimal odds of 1.97.
1/1.97= 0,5076
This means minimum winning percentage to break even is 50.76%
My record this year is 287-249 so I must have a positive outcome at flat stakes.

[nikossf]

Anything over 52% consistently,... and your + money..

[ericc]

At -110 you need to win 11 out of 21 (11/21=52.38% or, 11 wins at $1 = $11 and 10 losses at $1.1 = $11). If you play at -105 you need to win 21 out of 41 (21/41=51.22%) which is slightly better than 52.38% but the discount books usually move the juice so that it adds up to -105 (for example: team a = -104 and team b = -106, or -103/-107.

Basically it comes out to; if you can win 55% you can go out to dinner once a month, if you can win 58% you might be able to quit your day job, if you can win 60% you can buy a yacht.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Basically it comes out to; if you can win 55% you can go out to dinner once a month, if you can win 58% you might be able to quit your day job, if you can win 60% you can buy a yacht.

Really depends what market limits you're betting, and how many bets you can find. It's not that difficult to get very high winning %s on $250 novelty markets, but you won't get much money down, nor find that many opportunities, and are likely to get banned eventually.

55% at 1/3 Kelly on -105 will double your bankroll in 435 bets, quadruple in 870, x8 in 1270 etc. 54.5% at the same will double your bankroll every 578 bets, 54.0% every 805 bets.

The trick is finding the methods and target markets that optimise your overall yearly profit. Personally, I like high volume stuff, 2000 or so bets a year - it also has the secondary advantage that any change you make can be assessed quicker (ie you reach statistically useful sample sizes far sooner).


Almost nobody hits 55% at any volume, btw.

[Sawyer]

Depends on odds. You can make profit even with a %40 percentage if you're betting dogs.

[Sawyer]

Almost nobody hits 55% at any volume, btw.

LoL, it's funny. Ask gamblers what's their win rate, most of them will say they hit %70-80 But in fact, there's very few people who can hit %55-56+ over long haul.

[Blax0r]

Depends on odds. You can make profit even with a %40 percentage if you're betting dogs.

This is the correct answer.

[cruzing vato]

Agree with Eric. At -110 point spread bets, you need to hit 56-58% at least to make sports betting your job.. I figure sometimes you have to lay -120 and sometimes you get +100, but you better hit at least 56% and aim for 67%.