[Louisvillekid1]

Ight NFL is what it is, but I'm actually really looking forward to this game. It's the only game I really liked on this weeks card.

Ken Whisenhunt has just done a spectacular job with Phillip Rivers this season. They can't run the football, and he's got'em completing upwards of 73% of his passes along with a triple digit QBR. Although he still likes to share some of those completions with the opposing defense at the most critical times.

The Chargers have a -8 turnover differential going against an Indy defense who has already taken the ball away 10 times on the young season. The Colts have an outstanding Passing Defense giving up less than 200 per. You know they are going to win the turnover battle tonight. Indianapolis simply does not turn the ball over.

Andrew Luck has already went out west to beat San Fran and Seattle. Tonight should be Trent Richardson's best game as a Colt. Pagano is committed to the ground game and he should have the offense down much better by now. They get over 140 per and SD gives up over 120. On the road they are going to want to establish that ground game so Andy Luck can find deep plays down field off Play Action. Ty Hilton is a stud, and with the way they roll coverages towards Wayne he is able to get behind the defense on a week to week basis.

This is going to be a very tough game for San Diego, their lack of a running game is going to allow this already stout Pass Defense to make them one dimensional.

Colts will win the Ground Game
Colts will win the Turnover Battle

Colts aren't being respected or mentioned with the top teams in the league, but after tonight you better believe the word will be out.

Ticket	Accepted Date	Risk	To Win	Status	Wager
.................	10/14/13 4:21pm	$220.00	$200.00	Pending	10/14/13 8:40pm NFL Football 229 Indianapolis Colts -1 -110* vs San Diego Chargers
................	10/14/13 4:21pm	$34.50	$30.00	Pending	10/14/13 8:35pm Props Football 4847 TY.Hilton longest rec over 25½ yards -115* vs TY.Hilton longest rec under 25½ / no rec
................	10/14/13 4:20pm	$36.00	$30.00	Pending	10/14/13 8:35pm Props Football 4821 T.Richardson rushing yards over 70½ -120* vs T.Richardson rushing yards under 70½

[broadway6]

Good luck,lkid.

[Vinnie Paz]

Yea basically every stat points to an indy win, they should be more than -1 but fukc it. On them too.

SD also surrenders a staggering 70% completion rateto opposing qbs, to go along with their 41% third down conversion rate they give up, good for 24/32 in the league. I could go on, but we all get the picture.

[tatddy]

Hilton prop is a winner. Rest you could have just written A Luck's first game on MNF.

Gl pal.

[Bbfromgpt]

I know this line screams that Vegas is begging for people to back the colts, but I can't help it. If I'm being trapped I'm being trapped.

colts -1

[Ghenghis Kahn]

only thing that worries me is why is the line only 1?

public perception of the chargers is they are turrrrrable i mean tuurrrrrrrrable.

they have images of phillip rivers throwing ints left and right vs oakland.

where as the colts beat the superbowl bound seattle and sf.

andrew luck the future of the nfl... stanford alum genius.

phillip rivers goofy looking mother fukker... int machine.

so why is it at 1 and not 3 or 3.5?

[tatddy]

only thing that worries me is why is the line only 1?

public perception of the chargers is they are turrrrrable i mean tuurrrrrrrrable.

they have images of phillip rivers throwing ints left and right vs oakland.

where as the colts beat the superbowl bound seattle and sf.

andrew luck the future of the nfl... stanford alum genius.

phillip rivers goofy looking mother fukker int machine.

so why is it at 1 and not 3 or 3.5?

Have you seen how many people on SBR are pounding the Chargers? They are doing so because of the line and "public betting" not because of anything rational.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Have you seen how many people on SBR are pounding the Chargers? They are doing so because of the line and "public betting" not because of anything rational.

that is the reason why nfl is hard to cap.

line makers brain fukk you sometimes...

[RavensFan2k3]

Have you seen how many people on SBR are pounding the Chargers? They are doing so because of the line and "public betting" not because of anything rational.

Yeah but SBR doesnt represent the entire public...close to 70% of action is on Indy.

[Louisvillekid1]

I could careless about the %'s or the line.

I'm just looking at this from a pure football standpoint.

Back to basics

[Iwinyourmoney]

I am on colts -2 +100 for 1000. Let's get this!

[BigDeem5]

Good luck guys, but Colts defense scares me.

Trent hasn't fit in well, it could be Luck or Bust.

[tony_come]

I am on colts -2 +100 for 1000. Let's get this!

Iwon come see us at Mandalay bay. Call us promotion code:iwon

[slimschadey17]

I could careless about the %'s or the line.

I'm just looking at this from a pure football standpoint.

i think a lot of people seem to trying to look sharp and predict luck's regression this season. id rather just go with the stats

[ThaTopMoron]

Ight NFL is what it is, but I'm actually really looking forward to this game. It's the only game I really liked on this weeks card.

Ken Whisenhunt has just done a spectacular job with Phillip Rivers this season. They can't run the football, and he's got'em completing upwards of 73% of his passes along with a triple digit QBR. Although he still likes to share some of those completions with the opposing defense at the most critical times.

The Chargers have a -8 turnover differential going against an Indy defense who has already taken the ball away 10 times on the young season. The Colts have an outstanding Passing Defense giving up less than 200 per. You know they are going to win the turnover battle tonight. Indianapolis simply does not turn the ball over.

Andrew Luck has already went out west to beat San Fran and Seattle. Tonight should be Trent Richardson's best game as a Colt. Pagano is committed to the ground game and he should have the offense down much better by now. They get over 140 per and SD gives up over 120. On the road they are going to want to establish that ground game so Andy Luck can find deep plays down field off Play Action. Ty Hilton is a stud, and with the way they roll coverages towards Wayne he is able to get behind the defense on a week to week basis.

This is going to be a very tough game for San Diego, their lack of a running game is going to allow this already stout Pass Defense to make them one dimensional.

Colts will win the Ground Game
Colts will win the Turnover Battle

Colts aren't being respected or mentioned with the top teams in the league, but after tonight you better believe the word will be out.

Ticket	Accepted Date	Risk	To Win	Status	Wager
.................	10/14/13 4:21pm	$220.00	$200.00	Pending	10/14/13 8:40pm NFL Football 229 Indianapolis Colts -1 -110* vs San Diego Chargers
................	10/14/13 4:21pm	$34.50	$30.00	Pending	10/14/13 8:35pm Props Football 4847 TY.Hilton longest rec over 25½ yards -115* vs TY.Hilton longest rec under 25½ / no rec
................	10/14/13 4:20pm	$36.00	$30.00	Pending	10/14/13 8:35pm Props Football 4821 T.Richardson rushing yards over 70½ -120* vs T.Richardson rushing yards under 70½

Not sure about prop bets... the Chargers actually defend the deep passes pretty good.

Glad to see you on the Colts tho!

[steveq]

then buy points get that lead out wtg louis glgl tail all nite

[mcgeezer1883]

I'm on it too....I just don't see sharp $$$ on SD

Chargers D has too many holes. I see it going over also

[Coolin]

I could careless about the %'s or the line.

I'm just looking at this from a pure football standpoint.

Back to basics

Just like how you thought the cowboys, and eagles were gonna lose right?

[Coolin]

What's the prop bet on Ty Hilton I'm on my phone and can't see it. Don't forget Ty doesn't get too much looks every game so if it's something high I would be careful on that bet

[Bet10Heinekens]

GL DaVilleKid and awesome write up

lets get this cash


San Diego's defense ranks near the bottom of the league by allowing over 400 yards a game, while giving up 117 yards a game on the ground


Only angle I see for Chargers backers is fade the public on M.N.F. prime time game

[Louisvillekid1]

Just like how you thought the cowboys, and eagles were gonna lose right?

What's the prop bet on Ty Hilton I'm on my phone and can't see it. Don't forget Ty doesn't get too much looks every game so if it's something high I would be careful on that bet

Didn't bet Eagles, lost skins sunday night action play very small but hit RG3 O 30.5 and Hankerson +20.5 over Witten, missed Alfred Morris O 83.5 by 2 yards.

TY Longest reception over 25.5

[Louisvillekid1]

GL DaVilleKid and awesome write up

lets get this cash


San Diego's defense ranks near the bottom of the league by allowing over 400 yards a game, while giving up 117 yards a game on the ground


Only angle I see for Chargers backers is fade the public on M.N.F. prime time game

Thanks lets get it,

NFL is so difficult to win, but liking our chances here...

[pattymayo]

I'm not sure how you can say with confidence that the Colts will win the ground game. Their rush defense is 3rd worst in the league in terms of YPG allowed

There's no reason why Matthews or Brown or Woodhead can't run on that defense tonight.

[suicidekings]

Yeah but SBR doesnt represent the entire public...close to 70% of action is on Indy.

62% according to SBR. Even if you believe in betting % numbers having value, that's not a sufficient slant in the action to be meaningful...

[Louisvillekid1]

Who knows about all these %'s

its all about the money

If only we could see every dollar bet

[BroncosBettor]

I couldn't agree more with some of the fantastic points you have made about this game. I think the Colts are better on both sides of the ball, are healthy, SD is not, and they should be able to run the ball which is huge in the NFL and playing on the road. Again, great insight. Let's cash tonight my man!

[hoopdreams]

Colts are now PK for -110

[suicidekings]

I'm not sure how you can say with confidence that the Colts will win the ground game. Their rush defense is 3rd worst in the league in terms of YPG allowed

There's no reason why Matthews or Brown or Woodhead can't run on that defense tonight.

Adjusting for schedule, SD allows 4.6 ypc while IND allows 3.9 ypc. Indy runs the ball 30 times a game while SD runs it 25 times. Where the Chargers really fail is in getting defensive penetration in stopping the run. They just don't blow up that many plays in the backfield and the Colts OL has been one of the best so far in getting a push.

And Matthews is overrated. He will put the ball on the ground tonight.

[billysink]

Damn props wet here.

-120 and -115.


Shit don't go down like good drink Kidder.

At least I know you got good booze throw in your juice

[GoBlue77]

reverse line movement. uh oh colts backers. trouble...

[vyomguy]

Chargers will win today.

[No coincidences]

62% according to SBR. Even if you believe in betting % numbers having value, that's not a sufficient slant in the action to be meaningful...

That's just at 5Dimes.

I think it's a pretty safe assumption that the public is pounding the Colts at a decent clip.

[Louisvillekid1]

10/14 07:21 PM

+1 -119

-1 +108

Like this move by Pinny

[No coincidences]

10/14 07:21 PM

+1 -119

-1 +108

Like this move by Pinny

Juicing Colts backers.

[aznjeff07]

explain why you like it? Seems like the books with high juice on +1 for colts are begging for more colts action

I guess the above statement might be a little misleading.

My train of thought it they could have kept it at the -1 colts and juiced that (which it was at some places) instead of giving the public +points which begs for more colts action.