USC opened up as nice faves, and so far the money is coming in on Zona.
Main questions of this game:
1) How will USC react to Kiffin getting canned. - Biggest factor/unkown. (Zona pounded UCLA on Thurs when Stoops was shitcanned - it's a popular angle.
2) What is up with Lee for USC? Dude put up huge numbers on the Cats last year. Huge. Their WR falls of significantly after that.
3) Redd is set to make his debut vs. Arizona. This guy was a very good back last time I saw him.
4) How do the QB's matchup? Denker (ZONA) looked like shit (to be nice) vs. UW. UW has a legit defense, but I mean shit. Really bad. I've watched USC a time or two this season, and Kessler (USC) has looked below average to bad. The loss of his main target doesn't help. If Kessler can't pass, I expect a much improved Arizona defense to simply stack the box on the only guy who can do anything in Redd.
5) All numbers for this game, to include trends and basic handicapping predictors all have Arizona as the better team. Significantly. In some instances, they should be favored. In most instances this is a PK at worst.
Trends, FWIW:
- Trojans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Underdog is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
- Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Southern California.
- Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
- Over is 4-0 in Wildcats last 4 games in October.
My .02 cents is Rich Rod is coming off a bye week, and Arizona can score. We have a very solid RB, but we can't get anything open down field to loosen the box. Arizona's defense is greatly improved, although I think our stats are inflated right now. Arizona has historically played USC very tough.
The smart money seems to be on Arizona. I had a knee jerk reaction when this line first came out that USC easy, simply because of the coaching angle and the way Arizona played last week. I've been riding home teams in conference play, especially with the lights on - but I have some reservations backing either side.
So, what are the thoughts on this game? If you're on USC, is there a reason other than the fact Kiffin got fired?
Note: I am going to bet on this game, and I assume a large amount of PT'ers will be as well. Figured I might try and facilitate discussion.
Weather is gorgeous. Bit chilly for So. Cal, but very nice.