1. 05-19-13 04:39 PM #1
    The Kraken
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    All powerball drawings are +ev

    Here's why.

    It doesn't matter if you win $600million or $40million, the difference will be unnoticed for anyone here.

    More exact, your life wouldn't change any differently if you won the bigger lottery than if you won the smaller lottery.

    You would never work again either way. You could get all the toys you wanted either way (Get Flush), You would never worry about money again if you have half a brain, Your kids would be set, No Monthly Bills, You could be a philanthropist, etc...

    Yes, if you won the bigger lottery ie $600million you could buy a yacht or a private jet but for most of us, there's a maximum benefit that even $40million would nearly provide.

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  2. 05-19-13 04:43 PM #2
    frogsrangers
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    Odds are 1:175223510. Meaning that 175223509 out of 175223510 times, you will lose 2 dollars. 175223509 * 2 = -350,447,018. If the jackpot was 600,000,000 that means 1 out of 175223510 times you win 600,000,000. Divide that by 350,447,018 and you get 1.71 so if the jackpot was 600,000,000 you have an expected value of 1.71 for a ticket. It's only plus EV if the jackpot is 350,447,018 or greater
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  3. 05-19-13 04:53 PM #3
    tto827
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    Quote Originally Posted by frogsrangers View Post
    Odds are 1:175223510. Meaning that 175223509 out of 175223510 times, you will lose 2 dollars. 175223509 * 2 = -350,447,018. If the jackpot was 600,000,000 that means 1 out of 175223510 times you win 600,000,000. Divide that by 350,447,018 and you get 1.71 so if the jackpot was 600,000,000 you have an expected value of 1.71 for a ticket. It's only plus EV if the jackpot is 350,447,018 or greater
    Wrong on about a million fronts. How about the smaller prizes? How about splitting with others? Also, jackpot value is irrelevant, its how much will you get after taxes in the state you buy the ticket in if taking the lump sum.
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  4. 05-19-13 04:58 PM #4
    tto827
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    Also Kraken, $30 mil (min jackpot after taxes, etc.) is a ton of money. But you can easily spend that. Hell, buy a 4 or 5 million dollar house with $50,000+ in property taxes, and that's eating through a sizable chunk by itself.
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  5. 05-19-13 05:07 PM #5
    InTheDrink
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    Quote Originally Posted by tto827 View Post
    Also Kraken, $30 mil (min jackpot after taxes, etc.) is a ton of money. But you can easily spend that. Hell, buy a 4 or 5 million dollar house with $50,000+ in property taxes, and that's eating through a sizable chunk by itself.
    step number one to throwing it all away

    there are some things no one needs
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  6. 05-19-13 05:11 PM #6
    tto827
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    Quote Originally Posted by InTheDrink View Post
    step number one to throwing it all away

    there are some things no one needs
    4 or 5 million in a nice town on the water is a large, very nice house, but really not super-extravagant. Depends on where you live.
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  7. 05-19-13 05:40 PM #7
    UntilTheNDofTimE
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    Quote Originally Posted by tto827 View Post
    4 or 5 million in a nice town on the water is a large, very nice house, but really not super-extravagant. Depends on where you live.
    Why anyone needs a home over 500k is beyond me. You can live in southern CA for 500k and thats an expensive area.
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  8. 05-19-13 05:50 PM #8
    Ghenghis Kahn
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    no one on here will win the lotto.

    lotto is just another way to tax the poor.

    it's ridiculous online poker is considered gambling while lotto isn't...
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  9. 05-19-13 05:51 PM #9
    Ghenghis Kahn
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    Quote Originally Posted by UntilTheNDofTimE View Post
    Why anyone needs a home over 500k is beyond me. You can live in southern CA for 500k and thats an expensive area.


    obviously you're not from so cal.
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  10. 05-19-13 05:55 PM #10
    tto827
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ghenghis Kahn View Post


    obviously you're not from so cal.
    Seriously... Is a porta-potty on someone's front lawn considered a house? Cause that's about all 500k gets you in Newport Beach or any town on the water.
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  11. 05-19-13 05:59 PM #11
    UntilTheNDofTimE
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    Quote Originally Posted by tto827 View Post
    Seriously... Is a porta-potty on someone's front lawn considered a house? Cause that's about all 500k gets you in Newport Beach or any town on the water.
    Yes because you have to live "on the water".
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  12. 05-19-13 06:01 PM #12
    TheLock
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    Quote Originally Posted by UntilTheNDofTimE View Post
    You can live in southern CA for 500k and thats an expensive area.

    LOL this guy
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  13. 05-19-13 06:01 PM #13
    Smoke
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    End of timer getting buried here
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  14. 05-19-13 06:01 PM #14
    face
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    feels bad when you lose, but also feels bad when you don't play

    lottery = no fun
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  15. 05-19-13 06:01 PM #15
    Ghenghis Kahn
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    Quote Originally Posted by UntilTheNDofTimE View Post
    Yes because you have to live "on the water".
    what expensive area are you talking about and are you from so cal?
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  16. 05-19-13 06:03 PM #16
    tto827
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    Quote Originally Posted by UntilTheNDofTimE View Post
    Yes because you have to live "on the water".
    Most expensive areas in SoCal are towns that have ocean front, and regardless of if you buy a house on the ocean, it raises all home values. Costa Mesa is considered the "cheap" area. The one city out of Newport and like 5 others with no waterfront. You'd have a hard time finding a nice house with over half an acre for under $500,000.
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  17. 05-19-13 06:03 PM #17
    InTheDrink
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    who the fuk would live in cali if you won the lottery
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  18. 05-19-13 06:05 PM #18
    Ghenghis Kahn
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    have a home in hawaii for the winter,

    have a home in seattle for the summer,

    and santa barbara would be a nice place to retire...
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  19. 05-19-13 06:05 PM #19
    tto827
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    Quote Originally Posted by InTheDrink View Post
    who the fuk would live in cali if you won the lottery
    No state taxes on lottery winnings Drinker

    And it is arguably the best weather, if I have $200 mil, take whatever property taxes you want.
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  20. 05-19-13 06:06 PM #20
    yisman
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    I assume this thread was created tongue in cheek.

    It'd be very -EV even with no taxes. When you include taxes and splitting of prizes (even if you get lucky and win), you're basically trading a dollar for four dimes.

    Lotteries wind up being a complete disaster, even for many of the winners, who gain the athlete's mindset and burn through all the money in a couple of years, rather than investing.
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  21. 05-19-13 06:07 PM #21
    tto827
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    http://www.zillow.com/local-info/CA-...value/r_38032/

    Costa Mesa median home value $564,000. I sure as hell wouldn't consider the bottom half of homes in Costa Mesa nice.
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  22. 05-19-13 06:09 PM #22
    UntilTheNDofTimE
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ghenghis Kahn View Post
    what expensive area are you talking about and are you from so cal?
    I dont live in so cal. I wasnt refering to a " expensive area" in my post. I was referring to the entire southern region of california being a expensive area in general in comparison to the median home rate in the rest of the united states. Im no real estate agent but i'd assume i can find a home in riverside, anaheim, pasedena, outskirts of orange county for 500,000. I wouldnt just buy a oversized house on the beach just because i won 30M and got 18M after taxes. The same reason i dont think you should ever own a car over 100k unless you just feel you need to flaunt that your better than everyone else. This is the ridiculous impulse spending that causes most lottery winners to file bankruptcy.

    Its one thing if your a business professional in the So cal area living on the beach because you have a stable source of income. These lottery winners have no investing sense and no income so you'd surprised how fast you could blow through that kind of money in 5-10 years and he stuck with property taxes they cant afford.
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  23. 05-19-13 06:14 PM #23
    Ghenghis Kahn
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    Quote Originally Posted by UntilTheNDofTimE View Post
    I dont live in so cal. I wasnt refering to a " expensive area" in my post.
    Quote Originally Posted by UntilTheNDofTimE View Post
    You can live in southern CA for 500k and thats an expensive area.


    and i stopped reading after you mentioned riverside...
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  24. 05-19-13 06:16 PM #24
    tto827
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ghenghis Kahn View Post


    and i stopped reading after you mentioned riverside...
    Anaheim as well

    If my kids grow up with cholos on the block, I don't consider that a "nice" area.
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  25. 05-19-13 06:32 PM #25
    jackpot269
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    Here ya go!!! http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/why-m...tune-1.1211569

    http://www.statisticbrain.com/lotter...er-statistics/

    http://www.businessinsider.com/10-lo...ll-2010-5?op=1
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  26. 05-19-13 08:19 PM #26
    The Kraken
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    +EV at all amounts. Minimum payout is $40million. After lump sum and taxes you get about $15million. Granted the odds are 1:175000000 for a $2 ticket but that doesn't matter. You would never work again. You'd be living a rock star life. If I win the next lottery at $40million, I wont be any less happy than the person in FL that won the $600million Powerball yesterday. Happiness is +EV.

    No need to live in Cali, I would stay in the Chicago area and buy a nice home with a deep fukking tornado shelter.
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  27. 05-19-13 09:07 PM #27
    yisman
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Kraken View Post
    +EV at all amounts. Minimum payout is $40million. After lump sum and taxes you get about $15million. Granted the odds are 1:175000000 for a $2 ticket but that doesn't matter. You would never work again. You'd be living a rock star life. If I win the next lottery at $40million, I wont be any less happy than the person in FL that won the $600million Powerball yesterday. Happiness is +EV.

    No need to live in Cali, I would stay in the Chicago area and buy a nice home with a deep fukking tornado shelter.
    Throwing away $2 hundreds of times adds up.

    I'll keep that $2 and invest it, thanks.

    As for me, I won't win any lotteries because I'm not big on scams, but if I had that money, I would buy a nice home in the Pacific Northwest.
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  28. 05-19-13 09:09 PM #28
    ChalkyDog
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    Cost $2 to dream. I pay more for nightmarish fast food.

    $2 for a chance to be plucked out the rat race.....

    Why think about it any more than that?
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  29. 05-21-13 01:19 AM #29
    xbalto
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    he's right the EV calculations check out

    +600 million

    /2 dollars

    EV= 300 mill
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  30. 05-21-13 01:24 AM #30
    pulledclear
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