1. 03-03-13 09:28 PM #1
    EaglesPhan36
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    Let's Talk March Madness Strategies ...

    Conference Tourneys, The Big Dance & Other Stupid Postseason Tourneys ...

    The last few years, I have concentrated on a handful of conferences that I think I know best and played only those during conference tourney time + the 2nd half totals I like to play.

    During the NCAAs, I found last year that sticking the majority of my plays in ONE region where I felt either I knew the teams or that the lines/match-ups would present the best betting opportunities really helped streamline my focus. Takes a lot of patience/discipline to not want to play other regions - but it helped keep the # of plays down. Once the Sweet 16 rolled around, allowed myself the room to play a few more games I liked in other regions - but essentially for the 1st weekend I played mainly one region and a few spot plays like ML dogs, etc that stuck with my bracket.

    What is your strategy?
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  2. 03-03-13 09:31 PM #2
    BigDeem5
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    Watch the games all year, know who is over valued/under valued...

    For example,

    I believe Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Ohio State, Kansas, and others are over valued (arizona too)

    Under valued: UCLA, K St, Wisconsin, Marquette
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  3. 03-03-13 09:32 PM #3
    tto827
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    I roll with Deemers strategy, although my teams are very different.
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  4. 03-03-13 09:34 PM #4
    EaglesPhan36
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    As a 'Cuse fan, not sure they are over valued all the time but definitely over f-ing rated.
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  5. 03-03-13 09:45 PM #5
    k13
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    Same as every year, books give you the winner just have to decode it. But that's for straight plays which are boring.

    Rest will be futures and crazy parlays since there's so many games and separated.
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  6. 03-03-13 09:56 PM #6
    BIGDAY
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    I play every single game in the tourney. It's a rush.
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  7. 03-03-13 10:06 PM #7
    Louisvillekid1
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    Don't overvalue teams cuz they are playing close to home, It's nothing even close to an actual home game.
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  8. 03-03-13 10:08 PM #8
    Brock Landers
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    be VERY careful with conference tournaments...

    some teams simply DO NOT give a shit. The teams that are in and aren't going anywhere in the big tournament would like the extra rest anyway. I can't tell you how many times i've seen teams just simply not show up, for example, in 2011 Big Ten Tournament, see what Purdue did to Michigan st, then what Michigan st did vs Penn st. Case in point

    Big Dance is a different story, but tread lightly on the BIG conference tournaments...
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  9. 03-03-13 10:10 PM #9
    The Giant
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    I plan on following Brock Landers during the tournament.

    I would advise the rest of you to do the same.
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  10. 03-03-13 10:12 PM #10
    InTheDrink
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    top seeded teams who can run and score will generally cover easily in the first round

    you will find at least a couple 10, 11 or 12's who jump off the page as being a better team than the first round opponent and are getting points
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  11. 03-03-13 10:13 PM #11
    InTheDrink
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    ive seen some of thegiants picks in previous years and i dont know how he comes up with them but theyre unbelievable
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  12. 03-04-13 12:56 PM #12
    k13
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    You guys see anything here, might take a flyier on some long-shots, especially in the big south.

    NCAA Men's Basketball Conference Tournaments Big South Conference Tournament
    Tue 3/5 12:00PM
    HTC Center - Conway, SC - Championship March 10
    Coastal Carolina +260
    Charleston Southern +270
    Gardner-Webb +290
    High Point +500
    UNC Asheville +600
    VMI +2000
    Winthrop +4000
    Campbell +5000
    Liberty +5000
    Radford +6000
    Presbyterian College +20000
    Longwood +100000


    NCAA Men's Basketball Conference Tournaments Horizon League Tournament
    Tue 3/5 7:00PM
    Championship March 12 at site of highest seed
    Valparaiso -160
    Detroit +200
    Wisconsin Green Bay +1500
    Wright State +1800
    Youngtown State +5000
    Illinois Chicago +7500
    Loyola Chicago +9000
    Cleveland State +25000
    Wisconsin Milwaukee +75000
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  13. 03-04-13 01:27 PM #13
    Louisvillekid1
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    Wright st + 1800 has value , only thing that stands out
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  14. 03-04-13 01:42 PM #14
    steveq
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    well you have to consider your loyal fan base that might have the ability to follow when it is say 100 miles away as opposed to 1000 miles just saying
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  15. 03-04-13 01:47 PM #15
    EASports
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    I going to rollover my bets vs the top bet team on the, "Vegasinsider Top Bet screen".
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  16. 03-04-13 01:57 PM #16
    ChalkyDog
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    Don't overvalue teams cuz they are playing close to home, It's nothing even close to an actual home game.
    True, however the are usually exceptions.

    For instance, Villanova got to damn near play at home a few years ago.
    If there is a venue in north carolina, Duke will be in that region.
    Arizona v. Duke 2 years ago at the honda center for instance, was an absolute home game for the cats.
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  17. 03-04-13 02:04 PM #17
    ChalkyDog
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    Eh, WTF... my most successful betting angle the first weekend is:

    Major conference teams with an efficiency calculation over 0.10 make it to the 2nd weekend at an awesome rate.

    Now, I usually hate putting things like this out there, but these numbers aren't simply listed anywhere, so you have to physically calculate it yourself. Having certain presumptions about posters on PT, not too worried.
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  18. 03-04-13 02:06 PM #18
    TheMoneyShot
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    Crapshoot
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  19. 03-04-13 02:56 PM #19
    k13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    Wright st + 1800 has value , only thing that stands out
    Was looking at that too or wisc-gb.

    Might take a shot at vmi or winthrop. lol
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  20. 03-04-13 03:00 PM #20
    milwaukee mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    Was looking at that too or wisc-gb.

    Might take a shot at vmi or winthrop. lol
    looking at wright st and uw-gb, those are 2 pretty decent teams getting huge odds
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  21. 03-04-13 03:13 PM #21
    ApricotSinner32
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    99.99999% of people with good strategies do not tell the masses them for free. It would cost them money.
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  22. 03-04-13 06:40 PM #22
    k13
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    Fade all the Louisiana Tech's.
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  23. 03-04-13 06:53 PM #23
    texhooper
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Landers View Post
    be VERY careful with conference tournaments...

    some teams simply DO NOT give a shit. The teams that are in and aren't going anywhere in the big tournament would like the extra rest anyway. I can't tell you how many times i've seen teams just simply not show up, for example, in 2011 Big Ten Tournament, see what Purdue did to Michigan st, then what Michigan st did vs Penn st. Case in point

    Big Dance is a different story, but tread lightly on the BIG conference tournaments...
    nobody takes brock seriously but this is good advice. hell last year kentucky was the clear favorite to win the whole thing and they didn't even win their league tournament. florida state won the acc tourney last year...clearly north carolina just wasn't concerned. they went to the elite eight and got bounced by eventual national runner up kansas. this is just two glaring examples from last year.
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  24. 03-04-13 06:56 PM #24
    Louisvillekid1
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    Here's the First thing you do,

    Find Louisville on you're bracket and write their name 6 more times until you reach the center of the bracket.

    The rest is really where you can take some shots.
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  25. 03-05-13 08:53 AM #25
    milwaukee mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    Here's the First thing you do,

    Find Louisville on you're bracket and write their name 6 more times until you reach the center of the bracket.

    The rest is really where you can take some shots.
    objective advice once again from louisville kid

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  26. 03-05-13 09:16 AM #26
    DOM_Toretto
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    Michigan & Michigan State are basically playing their first two games at home - both at the Palace of Auburn Hills ( less than an hour away from AA & EL ) and the palace is a very big & loud venue. Depending on matchups/spreads, both should have an easy time covering early.

    Don't be fooled if a BIG TEN team fizzles out early in the Big Ten Tourney - the B1G Tourny is not as important to these squads at the NCAA tourney.
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  27. 03-05-13 09:43 AM #27
    sjm5122
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    Fade PAC 12.
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  28. 03-05-13 09:43 AM #28
    Frisco
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    Same as every year, books give you the winner just have to decode it. But that's for straight plays which are boring.

    Rest will be futures and crazy parlays since there's so many games and separated.
    Early round parlays are where its at. A lot of money to be made
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  29. 03-05-13 09:45 AM #29
    Frisco
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    Quote Originally Posted by texhooper View Post
    nobody takes brock seriously but this is good advice. hell last year kentucky was the clear favorite to win the whole thing and they didn't even win their league tournament. florida state won the acc tourney last year...clearly north carolina just wasn't concerned. they went to the elite eight and got bounced by eventual national runner up kansas. this is just two glaring examples from last year.
    I love betting early round games in conf tourney though where you catch a few teams desperate for wins to go dancing. NC State last year was a gold mine
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  30. 03-05-13 09:59 AM #30
    sweep
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    whatever dart sticks the deepest into the board, im on it
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  31. 03-05-13 10:13 PM #31
    k13
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    A few more tourney odds.

    NCAA Men's Basketball Conference Tournaments Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament
    Wed 3/6 2:30PM
    Hawkins Arena - Macon, GA - Championship March 9
    Mercer -160
    Florida Gulf Coast +300
    USC Upstate +550
    Stetson +1400
    North Florida +2100
    Jacksonville +5500
    East Tennessee State +5500
    Lipscomb +8000


    NCAA Men's Basketball Conference Tournaments Northeast Conference Tournament
    Wed 3/6 7:00PM
    Championship March 12 at site of highest seed
    Robert Morris -130
    Wagner +285
    LIU Brooklyn +650
    Bryant +800
    Quinnipiac +2300
    Mount St. Mary's +3000
    St. Francis Brooklyn +4500
    Central Connecticut +7500



    NCAA Men's Basketball Conference Tournaments Ohio Valley Conference Tournament
    Wed 3/6 7:00PM
    Municipal Auditorium - Nashville, TN - Championship March 8
    Belmont -300
    Murray State +475
    Eastern Kentucky +675
    Tennessee State +1200
    Morehead State +4000
    Southeast Missouri +6000
    Eastern Illinois +30000
    Tennessee Martin +60000



    NCAA Men's Basketball Conference Tournaments Patriot League Tournament
    Wed 3/6 7:00PM
    Championship March 13 at site of highest seed
    Bucknell -245
    Lehigh +230
    Lafayette +1000
    Army +2000
    Holy Cross +8500
    American +12500
    Colgate +30000
    Navy +100000



    NCAA Men's Basketball Conference Tournaments West Coast Conference Tournament
    Wed 3/6 9:00PM
    Orleans Arena - Las Vegas, NV - Championship March 11
    Gonzaga -375
    Saint Mary's +280
    BYU +1100
    Santa Clara +3000
    San Francisco +20000
    San Diego +50000
    Pepperdine +100000
    Loyola Marymount +100000
    Portland +150000
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  32. 03-07-13 01:03 PM #32
    k13
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    Iona 5th in conference but favorite to win tourney...

    NCAA Men's Basketball Conference Tournaments MAAC Tournament
    Fri 3/8 7:30PM
    MassMutual Center - Springfield, MA - Championship March 11
    Iona +230
    Loyola - MD +450
    Niagara +475
    Canisius +600
    Fairfield +650
    Rider +800
    Manhattan +950
    Marist +4000
    Saint Peter's +15000
    Siena +20000
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  33. 03-07-13 01:07 PM #33
    milwaukee mike
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    wow that maac is a complete tossup

    too many teams with a chance and too much juice in the lines to take a stab at niagara, but it's tempting
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  34. 03-07-13 01:20 PM #34
    PhillyFlyers
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  35. 03-07-13 01:20 PM #35
    k13
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    I was thinking fairfield for the hell of it but +650 is way too low.

    Fun to have a horse in the field though.

    Line is really moving against my Jacksonville team today...
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